As much fun as it was, I had to get out of the point prediction business as it was just to time consuming. I was using a statistical forecasting formula based on linear regression. I can?t explain the mathematics to anyone because I don?t understand them myself. It?s in the Excel package under statistics. If anyone is interested I can give you the specifics on what I was doing.
I have been enjoying learning about spreadsheets though and will attempt to paste and post this spreadsheet I?ve been working with. It contains average scores and some stats for each team plus 3 different power ratings. The first one (PRM) is based on the margin of victory and (in general) is probably the most accurate. The other two are based on game stats only. PRS is based on net rushing yardage and net passing yardage with equal weight given to both. PRR is based on the same as PRS but with twice the weight given to rushing (over passing). Be back later with a few(er) selections?hopefully.
PRM PRR PRS TM PF PA RO PO RD PD
57 60.5 62.8 TOL 24 31 134 193 157 182
69 70.8 63.2 NIU 28 23 187 201 111 285
51 43.1 55.2 BUF 19 34 90 184 211 171
63 66 65.3 AKR 22 25 98 232 135 202
95 98.4 88.6 LOU 39 15 203 289 105 211
85 84.5 74.4 RUT 29 9 193 128 92 135
72 78.1 75.3 WYO 22 18 136 185 108 140
88 85.2 81.6 BYU 34 14 144 297 108 197
68 72.9 65.5 WMU 26 19 147 182 73 211
71 70.3 69.2 CMU 29 25 136 249 125 238
64 54.2 61.3 UTE 28 30 75 279 146 255
62 61.7 62.8 UAB 18 22 138 167 149 188
73 80.1 74 MIA 22 15 125 202 64 183
73 60.5 64.2 MAR 23 21 129 168 166 199
68 66.5 70.7 PUR 25 26 130 293 172 234
70 86.3 81.3 ILL 19 25 174 172 124 169
42 30.6 47.3 TEM 13 41 62 167 229 227
82 87 82.7 PSL 20 16 145 198 102 194
70 51.7 61.3 SYR 19 24 101 164 197 205
72 76.8 72.7 SFL 24 17 159 202 118 166
89 102.4 86.1 MIC 29 13 193 179 30 211
66 61 66.8 IND 26 33 113 227 171 231
87 90.6 82.9 WIS 30 12 184 201 107 139
77 78.4 77.1 IOW 24 19 145 229 132 191
52 56.5 62 DUK 12 32 96 174 151 219
83 80.4 78 BCE 26 16 113 246 89 220
77 79.7 73.2 GAT 26 19 163 172 98 205
58 58.8 67.3 NCT 16 34 109 179 194 181
74 79.7 74.4 CIN 19 17 142 177 89 206
93 110.1 87.4 WVA 40 17 319 151 92 204
74 68 62.8 WFD 23 15 152 141 100 225
81 82.8 79.4 FSN 29 18 112 248 78 188
72 71.2 71.7 VAN 22 20 151 186 156 164
69 52.3 61.6 KEN 25 29 90 244 183 265
64 64.7 62.5 MTH 26 28 173 186 151 243
69 66.9 71.1 ECU 22 21 115 239 157 166
74 92.3 73 NAV 25 22 325 50 132 223
56 49.5 57.4 EMU 16 26 113 176 192 183
62 67.7 65.3 KSU 21 20 178 166 154 147
84 78.5 76.5 VAT 27 12 123 186 103 131
65 59.8 64.6 CSR 18 18 69 216 117 172
74 71.5 68.6 UTA 28 20 137 199 108 202
85 85.2 78.3 NEB 34 18 189 246 120 222
78 84.3 75.8 TAM 31 19 213 195 128 182
86 79.4 82.2 TEN 31 20 108 277 136 177
80 87.6 75.3 ARK 31 16 239 158 116 178
63 56.3 60.9 RIC 27 34 140 198 186 243
74 76.4 74.2 TGH 27 18 159 220 137 150
74 72.3 72.2 HOU 33 22 149 290 148 199
66 63.8 59.2 SMU 26 22 127 189 81 263
76 74.3 72.4 GEO 25 18 127 188 108 173
86 83.3 79 AUB 26 11 160 196 117 159
54 44.2 61.3 STA 9 35 68 163 239 179
77 72.6 74.2 WAS 23 26 139 193 155 235
74 75.1 72.9 ALA 24 17 130 206 108 169
98 103.1 93.6 LSU 35 10 166 255 71 144
77 73.3 75.3 SCG 22 17 132 221 152 168
88 93.4 85.4 FLO 26 13 150 229 70 205
59 59.4 65.1 ISC 19 32 92 223 149 235
65 72.7 66.8 COL 15 22 165 115 106 226
80 70.2 72.9 MIN 27 25 150 210 177 234
71 74.1 72.5 MSS 27 29 153 210 137 231
98 94.3 86.1 OST 34 8 174 225 92 166
65 67.4 66.9 NWW 16 24 154 153 149 219
83 78.5 80.4 NDI 32 22 107 287 126 194
74 84.6 71.1 AFF 25 21 267 67 132 191
58 59 68.2 NMS 29 33 68 400 160 246
64 70 70.1 FSB 21 33 152 167 153 225
77 87.9 77.6 TCU 23 13 171 207 68 204
63 59.3 61.3 NMX 21 23 92 212 112 229
94 86.2 82.7 CAL 36 20 171 268 136 256
70 66.9 69.9 ARI 14 20 76 173 106 204
88 91.3 75.9 BSB 40 16 234 186 80 221
68 72.2 66 SJS 27 19 214 184 152 186
44 45.6 52.4 USA 11 37 114 144 182 252
75 76 71.1 NEV 31 21 179 206 130 194
66 50.9 63.2 BAY 25 29 44 285 167 230
78 75.7 71.4 OSC 35 25 197 209 154 218
77 76.4 82.3 TXT 32 22 82 376 141 164
87 87.8 81.6 OKL 29 15 183 180 121 156
84 73 73.4 PIT 32 15 136 232 140 164
69 73.7 72.5 CON 20 23 192 134 180 141
70 68.9 71.8 NCS 19 22 119 183 148 166
92 102 87.4 CLE 35 13 231 190 85 162
94 96.2 82.4 TEX 39 15 183 227 45 241
72 68.6 68.6 KSW 22 19 133 190 133 194
55 51.6 59.4 NLV 18 32 86 223 164 241
59 58 65 SDS 14 27 121 154 191 154
82 87.4 83.9 WSC 25 20 141 262 106 228
76 80.2 77.9 AZS 26 26 163 184 140 188
59 54.3 59.3 TSU 19 23 123 173 173 160
51 56.9 62.7 FAT 13 29 112 180 170 165
51 48.3 53.3 NTX 13 28 106 123 156 200
58 68.1 61 ULL 22 28 189 125 118 226
66 64.9 62 MTB 24 21 142 152 113 191
53 63.1 61.2 ASI 14 22 154 141 135 158
54 51.7 57.8 ULM 15 25 120 192 181 193
55 60.2 66 FLI 12 26 69 176 127 148
83 85 82.4 OSB 27 20 122 243 96 205
80 83.5 80 UCL 23 20 127 215 92 220
89 97.8 91.8 ORE 36 22 206 250 146 142
94 95.8 90.1 USC 31 15 147 256 90 192
48 43.9 55.5 LAT 19 39 121 212 237 221
87 72.7 76.9 HAW 47 23 105 429 147 248
I have been enjoying learning about spreadsheets though and will attempt to paste and post this spreadsheet I?ve been working with. It contains average scores and some stats for each team plus 3 different power ratings. The first one (PRM) is based on the margin of victory and (in general) is probably the most accurate. The other two are based on game stats only. PRS is based on net rushing yardage and net passing yardage with equal weight given to both. PRR is based on the same as PRS but with twice the weight given to rushing (over passing). Be back later with a few(er) selections?hopefully.
PRM PRR PRS TM PF PA RO PO RD PD
57 60.5 62.8 TOL 24 31 134 193 157 182
69 70.8 63.2 NIU 28 23 187 201 111 285
51 43.1 55.2 BUF 19 34 90 184 211 171
63 66 65.3 AKR 22 25 98 232 135 202
95 98.4 88.6 LOU 39 15 203 289 105 211
85 84.5 74.4 RUT 29 9 193 128 92 135
72 78.1 75.3 WYO 22 18 136 185 108 140
88 85.2 81.6 BYU 34 14 144 297 108 197
68 72.9 65.5 WMU 26 19 147 182 73 211
71 70.3 69.2 CMU 29 25 136 249 125 238
64 54.2 61.3 UTE 28 30 75 279 146 255
62 61.7 62.8 UAB 18 22 138 167 149 188
73 80.1 74 MIA 22 15 125 202 64 183
73 60.5 64.2 MAR 23 21 129 168 166 199
68 66.5 70.7 PUR 25 26 130 293 172 234
70 86.3 81.3 ILL 19 25 174 172 124 169
42 30.6 47.3 TEM 13 41 62 167 229 227
82 87 82.7 PSL 20 16 145 198 102 194
70 51.7 61.3 SYR 19 24 101 164 197 205
72 76.8 72.7 SFL 24 17 159 202 118 166
89 102.4 86.1 MIC 29 13 193 179 30 211
66 61 66.8 IND 26 33 113 227 171 231
87 90.6 82.9 WIS 30 12 184 201 107 139
77 78.4 77.1 IOW 24 19 145 229 132 191
52 56.5 62 DUK 12 32 96 174 151 219
83 80.4 78 BCE 26 16 113 246 89 220
77 79.7 73.2 GAT 26 19 163 172 98 205
58 58.8 67.3 NCT 16 34 109 179 194 181
74 79.7 74.4 CIN 19 17 142 177 89 206
93 110.1 87.4 WVA 40 17 319 151 92 204
74 68 62.8 WFD 23 15 152 141 100 225
81 82.8 79.4 FSN 29 18 112 248 78 188
72 71.2 71.7 VAN 22 20 151 186 156 164
69 52.3 61.6 KEN 25 29 90 244 183 265
64 64.7 62.5 MTH 26 28 173 186 151 243
69 66.9 71.1 ECU 22 21 115 239 157 166
74 92.3 73 NAV 25 22 325 50 132 223
56 49.5 57.4 EMU 16 26 113 176 192 183
62 67.7 65.3 KSU 21 20 178 166 154 147
84 78.5 76.5 VAT 27 12 123 186 103 131
65 59.8 64.6 CSR 18 18 69 216 117 172
74 71.5 68.6 UTA 28 20 137 199 108 202
85 85.2 78.3 NEB 34 18 189 246 120 222
78 84.3 75.8 TAM 31 19 213 195 128 182
86 79.4 82.2 TEN 31 20 108 277 136 177
80 87.6 75.3 ARK 31 16 239 158 116 178
63 56.3 60.9 RIC 27 34 140 198 186 243
74 76.4 74.2 TGH 27 18 159 220 137 150
74 72.3 72.2 HOU 33 22 149 290 148 199
66 63.8 59.2 SMU 26 22 127 189 81 263
76 74.3 72.4 GEO 25 18 127 188 108 173
86 83.3 79 AUB 26 11 160 196 117 159
54 44.2 61.3 STA 9 35 68 163 239 179
77 72.6 74.2 WAS 23 26 139 193 155 235
74 75.1 72.9 ALA 24 17 130 206 108 169
98 103.1 93.6 LSU 35 10 166 255 71 144
77 73.3 75.3 SCG 22 17 132 221 152 168
88 93.4 85.4 FLO 26 13 150 229 70 205
59 59.4 65.1 ISC 19 32 92 223 149 235
65 72.7 66.8 COL 15 22 165 115 106 226
80 70.2 72.9 MIN 27 25 150 210 177 234
71 74.1 72.5 MSS 27 29 153 210 137 231
98 94.3 86.1 OST 34 8 174 225 92 166
65 67.4 66.9 NWW 16 24 154 153 149 219
83 78.5 80.4 NDI 32 22 107 287 126 194
74 84.6 71.1 AFF 25 21 267 67 132 191
58 59 68.2 NMS 29 33 68 400 160 246
64 70 70.1 FSB 21 33 152 167 153 225
77 87.9 77.6 TCU 23 13 171 207 68 204
63 59.3 61.3 NMX 21 23 92 212 112 229
94 86.2 82.7 CAL 36 20 171 268 136 256
70 66.9 69.9 ARI 14 20 76 173 106 204
88 91.3 75.9 BSB 40 16 234 186 80 221
68 72.2 66 SJS 27 19 214 184 152 186
44 45.6 52.4 USA 11 37 114 144 182 252
75 76 71.1 NEV 31 21 179 206 130 194
66 50.9 63.2 BAY 25 29 44 285 167 230
78 75.7 71.4 OSC 35 25 197 209 154 218
77 76.4 82.3 TXT 32 22 82 376 141 164
87 87.8 81.6 OKL 29 15 183 180 121 156
84 73 73.4 PIT 32 15 136 232 140 164
69 73.7 72.5 CON 20 23 192 134 180 141
70 68.9 71.8 NCS 19 22 119 183 148 166
92 102 87.4 CLE 35 13 231 190 85 162
94 96.2 82.4 TEX 39 15 183 227 45 241
72 68.6 68.6 KSW 22 19 133 190 133 194
55 51.6 59.4 NLV 18 32 86 223 164 241
59 58 65 SDS 14 27 121 154 191 154
82 87.4 83.9 WSC 25 20 141 262 106 228
76 80.2 77.9 AZS 26 26 163 184 140 188
59 54.3 59.3 TSU 19 23 123 173 173 160
51 56.9 62.7 FAT 13 29 112 180 170 165
51 48.3 53.3 NTX 13 28 106 123 156 200
58 68.1 61 ULL 22 28 189 125 118 226
66 64.9 62 MTB 24 21 142 152 113 191
53 63.1 61.2 ASI 14 22 154 141 135 158
54 51.7 57.8 ULM 15 25 120 192 181 193
55 60.2 66 FLI 12 26 69 176 127 148
83 85 82.4 OSB 27 20 122 243 96 205
80 83.5 80 UCL 23 20 127 215 92 220
89 97.8 91.8 ORE 36 22 206 250 146 142
94 95.8 90.1 USC 31 15 147 256 90 192
48 43.9 55.5 LAT 19 39 121 212 237 221
87 72.7 76.9 HAW 47 23 105 429 147 248
