11/9 - 11/11

[Smitty]

should be another great thursday night game. i think this one will play out a little differently though.

rutgers (+6) 1 unit. i don't think the scarlet knights are getting enough respect tonight. unlike west virginia, these guys actually play defense. and while the offense won't gash you for huge plays on the ground, they will eat up the clock 4 - 5 yards at a time. i really like their chances of keeping this close all night. however, i can't trust them for any more than one unit for several reasons... 1) i believe this has been mentioned in this forum once or twice, but teel is not a great qb. i don't think he's quite as bad as most people here, but he is average at best. 2) rutgers still tends to commit a few really stupid each game. and that might kill them tonight. 3) if louisville does jump out to an early lead, game over. could easily turn into another rout like last year.

louisville/rutgers under (51) 2 units. posted a few thoughts on this earlier in the week in gman's thread. unlike last thursday, there will be some defense tonight. louisville still has trouble finishing drives in the red zone. both teams have turned the ball over 15 times this year, tying them for 34th, so there shouldn't be too many opportunities for cheap scores.

overall, i think rutgers will be able to grind it out with rice and leonard all night. close game... final score 23-20.

 

[Smitty]

Saturday Plays

Saturday Plays

naturally i was wrong about a lack of cheap scores on thursday. a kickoff return for a td and an INT return to the 25... never fails. moving on to saturday...

cincinnati (+18) 2 units. cincinnati is 5-0-2 ATS since the loss to pitt. bearcats' d is playing great. last 7 games have gone under the total. hard to play the under in a wv game this year though, so i think cincy is the right play here.

vandy/kentucky over (53) 2 units. same exact situation for vandy as last year. lost a close game to florida last week, they play uk this week, and they have tennessee on deck. probably not much focus on the wildcats. last years matchup ended up 48-43. lean to vandy plus the 2 points as well.

air force (+11.5) 2 units. ND is 2-6-1 ATS on the year. no reason to stop going against them now. ND allowed 271 yards rushing to a navy team that had no threat of a passing game. air force should top that number. they'll control the game, move the chains, and keep ND's offense off the field. AF played a very close game AT tennessee, so it's not like they haven't seen a very good passing offense already this year. and, praise the lord, the game is not on nbc, so i won't have to liisten to ND's announcers.

new mexico state (+12) 2 units. more of an anti-fresno play than anything. wow, has this team fallen fast. last week was their one chance to salvage a miserable season, and they got blown out by boise. the aggies are awful, but chase holbrook is having an amazing season throwing the football. he's completing 68% of his passes for 3451 yards, 25 TD's and 9 INTs. fresno is 89th in the country against the pass. no reason NM st can't stay close here, if not get the outright win. heck, fresno lost to utah state this year.

nm st/fresno over (58.5) 2 units. pretty much as i stated above. i think fresno will still put up points against a bad aggie defense, but NM st should be able to match them score-for-score.

ok, something is very wrong here. only 5 plays? very uncharacteristic for me. hopefully i'll start the day 5-0 just like last week.