12/19 Bowls

[Smitty]

Celebration Bowl...

ha! just kidding.

New Mexico Bowl

new mexico (+9) 1 unit
new mexico (ML) 1 unit to win 3. this feels almost too easy. i mean, the lobos haven't lost the new mexico bowl since 2006. they OWN this game. in fact, that's why they renamed it the new mexico bowl. little known fact - this game is actually played in nevada and was called the tumbleweed bowl until 2007. nobody ever noticed. anyway.... arizona is going from the fiesta bowl last year to this. how excited will they be? and even with wright back, he'll probably be more concerned with staying healthy than with tackling lobos. new mexico will run, run, run. and arizona (yes, mostly without wright) was 89th in the country, giving up 188 yards/game on the ground. new mexico played arizona st early this season. the sun devils have a much better run defense than the wildcats, and new mexico still ran for 184 yards in that game.

one small concern (you know, besides arizona's pac 12 talent) is that bob davie is 0-3 in bowl games as a head coach. but, c'mon, surely he won't be outcoached by dickrod.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

clearly the best matchup of the day, which means it will be a blowout.

utah (-2.5) 2 units
under (49.5) 4 units. yay! mormons in vegas! i don't think there's any issue with "wanting to be here" in this game. this matchup may be the best rivalry that most people don't know about. these guys hate each other about as much as mormons can hate anything. there will likely be more intensity in this game than in any other bowl game. possibly even including the playoff games. obviously the loss of booker is huge for utah, but williams stepped up and ran for over 300 yards in their last 2 games. anyway, i think top to bottom utah is the better team. not only do i think williams will have a good game, but there is no next game to keep wilson healthy for, so i think he's going to run the ball a lot, too. looking for utah to win this game in a slugfest.

 

[Smitty]

Camellia Bowl

Camellia Bowl

appalachian st (-7) 2 units. no doubt about the motivational edge here. ap st is playing in their first ever bowl game (after being bowl eligible last year). and i think they'll grind out a convincing win. the mountaineers average 5.8 yards/carry, which is 4th in the country. ohio allows 4.8 yards/carry, which is 98th in the country. and lamb is no slouch throwing the ball if they need to take some pressure off the running game. he has 29 TDs this year and only 8 INTs. if you throw out the clemson game, those #s are 28 and 5. impressive.

one more stat... ohio has been very poor in the red zone this year. they are 109th in the country, scoring on 76.6% of their red zone opportunities. ap st is 23rd in the country, scoring on 89.1% of their red zone tries. hell, 74% of the time they score a td. on the other side of the ball, ap st is #1 in the country, allowing opponents to score on only 62.5% of their red zone trips. ohio is 106th in the country, allowing teams to score 89.2% of their red zone trips.

 

[Smitty]

Cure Bowl

Cure Bowl

i can't believe these guys are sponsoring a bowl game now. just weird.

you're welcome.

san jose (-1) 2 units. sure, i've already went to this well a few times too many. and while there is a motivational edge for georgia st, it's not like san jose plays in a lot of bowl games. i think overall san jose is a much, much better football team than georgia st. and i say that without seeing georgia st play a single time. that said, the panthers rely on the passing game, as they pick up 347 yards/game through the air. that's pretty good. it's 8th in the country. but san jose is 2nd in the country, only allowing 154 passing yards/game.
for me though, the key matchup in this game is tyler ervin against georgia state's 76th ranked rush defense. ervin's had a great year and i think he'll want to finish his career with a big bowl game. he barely played the last time san jose was in a bowl game, rushing 3 times for -13 yards (yes, negative 13) in 2012 against bowling green. big game for ervin, hopefully potter doesn't do anything too stupid, and the spartans roll. maybe they'll even tack on a late td with joe gray. it'd be nice if they toss him a bone by giving him a few snaps.

 

[Smitty]

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

la tech (-1) 2 units. well, it's nice to see arkansas st get away from the godaddy bowl after 4 straight years there. but after la tech is done with 'em, they may wish to be back in mobile playing a mac team. the only real question for me in this game - has la tech bounced back from the blowout against southern miss? no doubt they were looking forward to a rematch against wku in the c-usa conference championship. if they're ready to play today, i think they'll get a solid win.
knighten gets the credit for ark st, but this year it's really been their ground game that's been the key. they have 3 backs with at least 90 carries who average over 6 yards/carry. impressive. but are you ready for this? la tech is 9th in the country, only giving up 114.5 yards/game on the ground. that run defense will be the key to slowing down the red wolves' offense and getting the ball back to la tech's potent offense.

happy bowl season to all madjackers!

 

[Smitty]

surely he won't be outcoached by dickrod.

:facepalm: it's all coming back to me now. i had forgotten how bad davie is. dickrod doesn't have to outcoach him. he can just sit back and let davie kill his own team with his horrible decisions.

 

[bleedingpurple]

:facepalm: it's all coming back to me now. i had forgotten how bad davie is. dickrod doesn't have to outcoach him. he can just sit back and let davie kill his own team with his horrible decisions.

That was almost coltsesque on fake, their QB is brutal.