Quick reminder... not an official "posted" play, but i did bet illinois st tonight. grabbed 'em as early as i could and got +105.
Ok, I'm getting a late start, but hopefully this won't take too long, as I already know who I'm on in this first game. Well, to be specific, I know who I'm betting against.
Spoiler alert... I have this pending.
Full disclosure.... my record on multi-day parlays is abysmal. So tail at your own risk.
Both these teams beat ND very early in the season. And both games were very close. A&M perhaps only won because of a dropped snap on a late extra point. But the most impressive stat I see... is the job the Miami defense did on Jeremiyah Love. They held him to 33 yards on only 10 carries. (side note - Carr, a freshman, was making his first start. On the road. At a top 20 team. While they never led in the game, they never trailed by more than 2 scores. So why the fuck did Love get 10 carries while Carr threw 30 passes AND ran 11 times. Doesn't seem like a great game plan.) Anyway, that's not an aberration. Miami was excellent against the run all year, giving up 2.9 yards/carry (10th in the country). A&M has a balanced offense, with Owens, Moss (back today), and Reed all averaging at least 5.5 yards/carry. But Miami may be able to make them one-dimensional. And that's when Reed is in trouble.
On the other side of the field, A&M tied for the national lead in sacks. But Beck has only been sacked 9 times all year. Their O-line grades out as outstanding in pass blocking. Combined with the veteran QB who knows when to get rid of the ball.
Gotta wrap this up, only 40 minutes to kickoff. The biggest reason I'm betting against A&M? The same reason I bet against them in the Texas game. They are very overrated, thanks to a weak schedule. Sure, they escaped ND with a win. If they played again today... probably a different outcome. But they played one of the weaker SEC schedules this year. They won at Missouri, but the Tigers had a true freshman QB making his first start that day. So their two biggest wins on the year were both against a VERY inexperienced QB. Well, today they are facing a QB who has already won a NC (full disclosure, I'm too lazy to verify that. I'm PRETTY sure Beck won a NC. Feel free to correct me.).
The under looks logical, but I'm getting killed on totals, so staying off.
Miami ML 4 to win 5
Ok, I'm getting a late start, but hopefully this won't take too long, as I already know who I'm on in this first game. Well, to be specific, I know who I'm betting against.
Spoiler alert... I have this pending.
Full disclosure.... my record on multi-day parlays is abysmal. So tail at your own risk.
Both these teams beat ND very early in the season. And both games were very close. A&M perhaps only won because of a dropped snap on a late extra point. But the most impressive stat I see... is the job the Miami defense did on Jeremiyah Love. They held him to 33 yards on only 10 carries. (side note - Carr, a freshman, was making his first start. On the road. At a top 20 team. While they never led in the game, they never trailed by more than 2 scores. So why the fuck did Love get 10 carries while Carr threw 30 passes AND ran 11 times. Doesn't seem like a great game plan.) Anyway, that's not an aberration. Miami was excellent against the run all year, giving up 2.9 yards/carry (10th in the country). A&M has a balanced offense, with Owens, Moss (back today), and Reed all averaging at least 5.5 yards/carry. But Miami may be able to make them one-dimensional. And that's when Reed is in trouble.
On the other side of the field, A&M tied for the national lead in sacks. But Beck has only been sacked 9 times all year. Their O-line grades out as outstanding in pass blocking. Combined with the veteran QB who knows when to get rid of the ball.
Gotta wrap this up, only 40 minutes to kickoff. The biggest reason I'm betting against A&M? The same reason I bet against them in the Texas game. They are very overrated, thanks to a weak schedule. Sure, they escaped ND with a win. If they played again today... probably a different outcome. But they played one of the weaker SEC schedules this year. They won at Missouri, but the Tigers had a true freshman QB making his first start that day. So their two biggest wins on the year were both against a VERY inexperienced QB. Well, today they are facing a QB who has already won a NC (full disclosure, I'm too lazy to verify that. I'm PRETTY sure Beck won a NC. Feel free to correct me.).
The under looks logical, but I'm getting killed on totals, so staying off.
Miami ML 4 to win 5
