12/23 Bowls

[1837]

I was lucky enough to get Toledo +14.5 -130 in live game. Good luck all and thanks Smitty for all your work. It's been a pleasure reading your write up for all those bowl games 🏈

 

[Smitty]

I was lucky enough to get Toledo +14.5 -130 in live game. Good luck all and thanks Smitty for all your work. It's been a pleasure reading your write up for all those bowl games 🏈

i hope they at least hang on for that cover. If they gave that RT a little help on the edge, they would have been first and goal at the one. Oh well.

 

[boomer1]

NO Bowl
Pretty clean, as far as opt-outs. WKU may be without one of their top DBs, Dylan Flowers. And it looks like Southern Miss is, well, missing their starting S Corey Myrick. CB Josh Moten, who led the team in PDs and INTs, is allegedly playing. Here's a quote from senior QB Braylon Braxton...

“This isn’t a vacation trip, a go have fun trip,” Braxton said. “We are going to down there to win this game. We love the game of football. Any opportunity that we get to play, we are going to go play, especially me, (safety) J Mo (Josh Moten), and these seniors."

Now, talk is cheap. But if that's a serious statement, then it's certainly what I want to hear if I'm betting Southern Miss.

The Southern Miss HC left the team, but their OC is stepping in. And he's a pretty good HC to bring off the bench... Blake Anderson. He'll be the HC next year. However, Anderson is only 3-6 in bowl games.

The biggest question I have... what is WKU's mindset? It was a tough finish to the season. In their penultimate game, they played at LSU. Yes, that LSU. The Hilltoppers never trailed by more than 10, and Dylan Flowers returned a fumble 72 yards for a TD with a minute left. WKU only lost by 3. One week later, they played at Jacksonville St, with a trip to the CUSA Championship game on the line. It was a real back-and-forth game, and Jax St kicked the winning fg as time expired.

So is WKU really focused on this game?

WKU relies on the passing attack. Midway through the season, freshman Rodney Tisdale took over at QB for Maverick McIvor. While overall Tisdale's stats were similar to McIvor's, some things you'd expect from a freshman bore true. He threw 9 TDs with 6 INTs (McIvor had 12 TDs and 5 INTs) and took the same number of sacks, but in roughly 60 fewer pass attempts. He's thrown at least one INT in each of his 4 starts. Southern Miss, led by J'Mond Tapp (7.5 sacks) can get after the QB. And LB Chris Jones is 7th in the country with 128 tackles. While WKU doesn't run the ball a lot, they do have 2 capable RBs in Parrish (5.2/carry) and Wright (5.8)

Braxton was the Sunbelt Offensive Player of the Year last year at Marshall before transferring to Southern Miss. And he had another solid year, averaging 7.9 yards/att and throwing for 23 TDs and 7 INTs. He was hampered by a knee injury the last 2 games of the season. Hopefully he's recovered now. While Southern Miss runs the ball more than WKU, they're not very effective. Lead RB Pittman only averages 4.4 yards/carry. Luckily for them, WKU allows 5.1 yards/rush (124th in the country).

Southern Miss tied for the national lead with 21 INTs. Even without Myrick, they may get Tisdale a couple times. In fact, TOs could play a huge role today, as WKU is 102nd in the country in TO Margin, while Southern Miss is 6th.

Southern Miss (ML) 5 to win 4
Parlay Southern Miss +3.5/Over 54.5 2 to win 2.2

I love this one

 

[ejthree]

NO Bowl
Pretty clean, as far as opt-outs. WKU may be without one of their top DBs, Dylan Flowers. And it looks like Southern Miss is, well, missing their starting S Corey Myrick. CB Josh Moten, who led the team in PDs and INTs, is allegedly playing. Here's a quote from senior QB Braylon Braxton...

“This isn’t a vacation trip, a go have fun trip,” Braxton said. “We are going to down there to win this game. We love the game of football. Any opportunity that we get to play, we are going to go play, especially me, (safety) J Mo (Josh Moten), and these seniors."

Now, talk is cheap. But if that's a serious statement, then it's certainly what I want to hear if I'm betting Southern Miss.

The Southern Miss HC left the team, but their OC is stepping in. And he's a pretty good HC to bring off the bench... Blake Anderson. He'll be the HC next year. However, Anderson is only 3-6 in bowl games.

The biggest question I have... what is WKU's mindset? It was a tough finish to the season. In their penultimate game, they played at LSU. Yes, that LSU. The Hilltoppers never trailed by more than 10, and Dylan Flowers returned a fumble 72 yards for a TD with a minute left. WKU only lost by 3. One week later, they played at Jacksonville St, with a trip to the CUSA Championship game on the line. It was a real back-and-forth game, and Jax St kicked the winning fg as time expired.

So is WKU really focused on this game?

WKU relies on the passing attack. Midway through the season, freshman Rodney Tisdale took over at QB for Maverick McIvor. While overall Tisdale's stats were similar to McIvor's, some things you'd expect from a freshman bore true. He threw 9 TDs with 6 INTs (McIvor had 12 TDs and 5 INTs) and took the same number of sacks, but in roughly 60 fewer pass attempts. He's thrown at least one INT in each of his 4 starts. Southern Miss, led by J'Mond Tapp (7.5 sacks) can get after the QB. And LB Chris Jones is 7th in the country with 128 tackles. While WKU doesn't run the ball a lot, they do have 2 capable RBs in Parrish (5.2/carry) and Wright (5.8)

Braxton was the Sunbelt Offensive Player of the Year last year at Marshall before transferring to Southern Miss. And he had another solid year, averaging 7.9 yards/att and throwing for 23 TDs and 7 INTs. He was hampered by a knee injury the last 2 games of the season. Hopefully he's recovered now. While Southern Miss runs the ball more than WKU, they're not very effective. Lead RB Pittman only averages 4.4 yards/carry. Luckily for them, WKU allows 5.1 yards/rush (124th in the country).

Southern Miss tied for the national lead with 21 INTs. Even without Myrick, they may get Tisdale a couple times. In fact, TOs could play a huge role today, as WKU is 102nd in the country in TO Margin, while Southern Miss is 6th.

Southern Miss (ML) 5 to win 4
Parlay Southern Miss +3.5/Over 54.5 2 to win 2.2

Please tell me I did not fuck up betting un 59? Maybe will fall 57.

 

[Smitty]

Frisco Bowl
No new injuries and... no opt-outs? Holy shit. HALLELUJAH!!

Gonna start right out with... it's Dan Mullen's first year at UNLV.

And just a little chaos for Ohio.

Colandrea has excelled in his first year at UNLV after transferring from UVA. Both throwing the ball (8.5 yards/att, 23 TDs and 8 INTs) and rushing (2nd-leading rusher on team, 8.4 yards/rush after you take out sacks). Top RB Thomas averages a very impressive 7.2 yards/carry. He's also the 2nd-leading receiver on the team with 36 catches. UNLV is explosive in the passing game, as the top 4 WRs all average at LEAST 14.7 yards/catch. This is all bad news for an Ohio defense that gives up 4.4 yards/rush (89th in the country) and 7.6 yards/pass att (101st).

Ohio is led by... MY MAN, PARKER NAVARRO!! I've been a fan since he came out of nowhere to lead the Bobcats to a win in the Myrtle Beach Bowl 2 years ago. Navarro had a solid year, averaging 7.8 yards/att and throwing 14 TDs and 10 INTs. But his legs are more dangerous than his arm. He averaged 7.6 yards/carry, with the sacks taken out. He's led them to 2 straight bowl wins. (I think I saw that Ohio has won 6 straight bowl games) Their top RB, Sieh Bangura, spent most of his college career at Ohio, where he had decent, if unspectacular, seasons in 2022 and 2023. He then transferred to Minnesota, where he only got 4 carries last year. He's back with the Bobcats, and averaged 5.6 yards/carry. This rushing attack is going to be a problem for the Rebels, who allow 5.3 yards/carry (129th in the country). Ohio is 38th in the country converting 3rd downs, at 43%. They're going to need to be great on 3rd downs to keep that UNLV offense off the field. Shockingly, as bad as the UNLV defense is, they are 15th in the country, only allowing opponents to successfully convert 33% of their 3rd downs.

Neither team excels in the kicking game. Villela (UNLV) is just 9 of 14 from 30+ yards. Ohio's kicking game is a mess. Freshman Dellenbach took over after Brack Peacock (yup, somebody named their son Brack) made 3 of 6 and missed 2 XP. Dellenbach hasn't been any better. He's 3 of 5 on the season, with a long of 35. And he has also missed 2 XP.

For the second straight year, UNLV had a very good season, only to get manhandled by Boise St in the MWC Championship game. Last year, they rebounded to win their bowl game. I don't know if they can do it two years in a row. Ohio has the right offense to grind out long drives and keep that UNLV offense off the field.

Ohio (ML) 4 to win 8.6

For now, I'm staying off the total. But I do like the Over.

 

[Smitty]

Please tell me I did not fuck up betting un 59? Maybe will fall 57.

No worries.