12/27 Bowls

Smitty

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Well, I'm on an incredibly horrible run since Saturday. After a couple great years, I'm already damn near guaranteed a losing bowl season. Especially because I'm dropping my bets until I turn this around.

Military

VT is missing their TE (and 3rd-leading receiver) to the portal and both starting safeties due to injury. Tulane is missing... oh, just their QB, 3 of top 5 receivers, LG, and 5 starters on defense. And maybe one more top receiver. I can't determine if Lawrence Keys (2nd-leading receiver, and he averages 18.2 yards/catch) is playing. He hasn't played since 11/11 due to a foot injury. I think he's out again today. But there was a GoFundMe to raise money to send his family to this game. Not sure why they'd attend this bowl game if he isn't playing. Unless they were just looking for a free vacation. Anyway, yes, this is how deep Smitty goes to bring you critical info!

Generally speaking, a non-Power 5 team like Tulane isn't going to have the depth to adequately replace all these guys. Expect a big drop-off.

VT has lost 4 straight bowl games. Last year, Tulane played in a NY6 game. Gotta believe VT has the motivation edge.

With so many players missing, I don't know how vital these stats are, but I'll do a quick rundown.

VT doesn't have much of a run game. They have 3 guys with more than 17 carries this year (including QB Drones). None average more than 4.7 yards/carry. Tulane was excellent against the run, allowing 3.08 yards/carry. Their top 3 tackers are still playing. In fact, all 3 interior guys of their front 7 are playing. However, the key to Tulane's defense is pressure from the edges. And they're missing a DE and both OLBs. Overall, they're missing nearly half of their 34 sacks. Drones was ok throwing the ball. He only completed 58% of his passes, but he threw 15 TDs and only 3 INTs, and averaged 7.5 yards/att. Luckily for him, Da'Quan Felton is playing, who averaged 17.6 yards/catch. He could have a big day against a Tulane secondary that wasn't great, and is missing 2 starters.

Offensively, Tulane needs to run the ball. Even more so today, with Kai Horton at QB. Hughes has 205 more carries than the next RB, so he is the guy. He averaged 5.3 yards/carry. VT is meh against the run, allowing 4.2 yards/carry. However, they've been very good against the pass, only allowing 6.48 yards/att, 20th in the country. Horton was ok in his limited time, completing 50% with 3 TDs and 2 INTs. He did average a respectable 7.8 yards/att. He did take a lot of sacks though. In his 2 games against FBS competition, he was sacked 7 times in 56 dropbacks. So one of every 8. VT is 8th in the country, averaging 3.17 sacks/game.

VT (-11) 2 units
Tulane TT under (14.5) 2 units
 
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Smitty

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Keep the chin up Smitty, tough business we chose to dabble in...:smilies20
thanks, man, it sure the fuck is. this keeps up much longer, i may have to work for a living again.
Asustad What GIF by Poo~Pourri
 

Smitty

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Duke's Mayo

Portal... way too much for me to type it up. Here's what I've been using... https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf...opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more

One note of interest... both teams have excellent centers, and both are out to prep for the draft.

UNC does not have a scholarship TE available for this game. As someone who played TE, I can tell you it's easily the most important position on the field. UNC probably shouldn't even show up today.

Two teams in the top 40 for Scoring Offense, and both are in the bottom half for Scoring Defense.

Two of the top rush offenses in the country. WVU averages 5.26/carry (12th) and UNC averages 5.18 (16th). UNC has been a little better stopping the run, allowing 4.13/carry vs 4.35 for WVU.

Huge upgrade at QB for UNC. Conner Harrell (who has the whitest name I've ever seen for a black man) completed 67% of his passes and averaged 11.8 yards/att. That's over 3 yards/att better than Maye!! He also averaged 10 yards/carry on the ground. Ok, ok, he only threw 6 passes and had 5 carries. And he was 4-for-4 against Campbell with 2 carries for 61 yards. So 3 carries for -11 yards against NC St & Syracuse. So no idea what we'll get today. But if they're able to get their ground game going, Harrell may not have to do much with his arm.

Garrett Greene for WVU is a dual-threat QB, but the announcers probably won't call him that, because he's white. But, like most dual-threat QBs, he has a low completion percentage (53%). But he averages 8.6 yards/att and threw 15 TDs with only 4 INTs. Also, he's only taken 4 sacks all year. (For comparison purposes, his backup took 5 sacks on 200 fewer pass attempts). Anyway, his last 2 games he has 257 yards on 25 carries. You can do the math on that one. For the season, he has 708 yards, and he's only their 3rd-leading rusher. Late in the season, freshman Jaheim White started to get the bulk of the carries. His last 2 games - 337 yards on 38 carries. He averaged 8.2 yards/carry for the season.

I'm not taking a side in this one. I have a parlay going with WVU on the ML, so UNC will probably win the game. If I wasn't mired in a huge slump, this would be a bigger bet.

Over (61) 2 units
 

Smitty

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Holiday

I've about had it with these fucking games. *WARNING: "Things used to be better" rant coming... Not that long ago, a lot of bowl games were the best teams from non-Power 5 conferences against the middle teams from the Power 5 conferences. If nothing else, at least ONE team cared about the game. My guess is the Power 5 conferences got sick of embarrassing losses in meaningless bowl games, so now almost every bowl game the rest of the way is 2 mediocre teams from Power 5 conferences. I can't get at all excited for these games. Obviously all the opt-outs don't help. And I want to punch every announcer who claims a fight is evidence that the teams care about the game. Give me a fucking break. They don't care about these games. They're butt-hurt because the loudmouth on the other team insulted their mama.

Ok, while I'm ranting... on a semi-related subject... is it just me, or is the overall quality of football WAY down this year? Over the past decade or so, you've had Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia that were really good football teams. Great on both sides of the ball. Suddenly, this year, we don't have that. Georgia may still be the best team, but they're not even in the playoff. Michigan dominated a TERRIBLE Big10, so we really have no idea how good they are. And they get to play the 2nd-best team from the SEC. But even the SEC was a little down this year. Not one single great defense. Maybe it's because with the transfer portal, there's even more turnover from year-to-year, so teams don't get a chance to develop. Maybe it's just a one-year exception. I don't know.

Anyway, I think it's time to cut way back on the time I put into these games. Unlike previous years, I'm not seeing the payoff. Hell, based on the last couple days, I'd be a lot better off just betting every favorite and over.

Soooo... yeah, the Holiday Bowl. A thoroughly mediocre Louisville team against the always-underachieving USC. A couple big opt-outs for Louisville's offense. RB Jordan is out, but his backup put up similar #s, so maybe not a big loss. WR Thrash though had 63 catches. The next guy had 26. Maybe USC's defense is such garbage that that won't matter either.

Sophomore Miller Moss (Seriously. That's his name. Miller. Ok.) gets his first start for USC. He was good in some mop-up action early in the season, completing 72% and 1 TD with 0 INTs in 32 attempts, averaging 9.7 yards/att. It's USC, so even the 3rd-string guys he'll be throwing to have some talent.

USC (ML) 2 to win 4.2. Hey, at least I can't lose the vig.
Over (58) 2 units.
 
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Smitty

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Texas

What does it tell you when Ok St may only be missing one starter, and they're still only laying 3.5 to this trash Texas A&M team that's missing half their roster?

Only noteworthy piece of info... Ollie Gordon is a stud, and A&M was excellent against the run, giving up 3.27 yards/rush. We'll see if A&M's backups can slow him down.

No way can I take this Ok St team laying over a fg. Don't really want to bet the Aggies either.

So, fuck it, I'm literally betting $11 on A&M +3.5. Not worth counting as part of my record.
 

Smitty

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never fails, does it? drop your bets and suddenly you can win again.

nice to see usc with a decent qb. can't wait to see which dipshit team wastes their #1 pick on caleb williams.
 
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