12/27 Bowls

[Smitty]

Armed Forces Bowl

oklahoma is missing their qb and top 4 receivers, leaving them with no receivers over 22 catches. hawkins, their qb for this game, replaced a benched Arnold in the tennessee game. he then started at auburn and the texas game. overall, his numbers were similar to Arnold, with one big exception. hawkins threw only 1 TD and 2 INTs. he runs. a LOT. he had 77 pass attempts and 52 rushes. however, he's not a very effective runner, averaging 2.8 yards/carry. oklahoma didn't have much of a ground game this year, averaging just 3.9 yards/carry.

navy is missing... nobody. they're navy.

motivation is often a big key to bowl games (duh). but especially so when a service academy is involved. if you're not interested in the game, you're going to HATE facing the option. and you're certainly not going to have the discipline required to slow it down. and it's hard to believe oklahoma is all that interested in this game. i think they won their super bowl in the win over alabama.

really, the big question is Navy's focus. now, sure, they're navy. but they are coming off their upset win over army. these are still young men, and they've been basking in the glow of that game for nearly 2 weeks.

in case you were wondering (and you were), the service academies are 8-5 SU in the armed forces bowl, and have won the last 5 opportunities. HOWEVER, those were all Army & AF. the last time one of the academies lost this game... was the last time Navy played.

well, at +2.5, all value in the spread is gone. only one way to play this.

Navy (ML) 5 to win 6
Navy 1H (ML) 4 to win 4.8

 

[ejthree]

Armed Forces Bowl

oklahoma is missing their qb and top 4 receivers, leaving them with no receivers over 22 catches. hawkins, their qb for this game, replaced a benched Arnold in the tennessee game. he then started at auburn and the texas game. overall, his numbers were similar to Arnold, with one big exception. hawkins threw only 1 TD and 2 INTs. he runs. a LOT. he had 77 pass attempts and 52 rushes. however, he's not a very effective runner, averaging 2.8 yards/carry. oklahoma didn't have much of a ground game this year, averaging just 3.9 yards/carry.

navy is missing... nobody. they're navy.

motivation is often a big key to bowl games (duh). but especially so when a service academy is involved. if you're not interested in the game, you're going to HATE facing the option. and you're certainly not going to have the discipline required to slow it down. and it's hard to believe oklahoma is all that interested in this game. i think they won their super bowl in the win over alabama.

really, the big question is Navy's focus. now, sure, they're navy. but they are coming off their upset win over army. these are still young men, and they've been basking in the glow of that game for nearly 2 weeks.

in case you were wondering (and you were), the service academies are 8-5 SU in the armed forces bowl, and have won the last 5 opportunities. HOWEVER, those were all Army & AF. the last time one of the academies lost this game... was the last time Navy played.

well, at +2.5, all value in the spread is gone. only one way to play this.

Navy (ML) 5 to win 6
Navy 1H (ML) 4 to win 4.8

Love it when I'm riding with you... My friends have this game also and they rarely miss a number but they took 3.5 so I'm following +3 and ML game and first half... GL Smitty, time to turn on the afterburners... Quite a line movement here...

 

[Smitty]

Love it when I'm riding with you... My friends have this game also and they rarely miss a number but they took 3.5 so I'm following +3 and ML game and first half... GL Smitty, time to turn on the afterburners... Quite a line movement here...

yeah, i assume the big line move was due to OK missing almost literally all of their starting skill position players. and now it's probably just steam.

 

[ejthree]

yeah, i assume the big line move was due to OK missing almost literally all of their starting skill position players. and now it's probably just steam.

Okla could win for sure as I truly dislike these huge line moves but one thing I love about these military kids"They Never fucking quit"

 

[Smitty]

one note, before i forget... i can't bet syracuse games, so i won't spend time on the holiday bowl. but fran brown is in his first year at syracuse. so far, the trend has continued... coaches in their first year at the school are 1-4 ATS this year, with one more today (Mike Elko).

Birmingham Bowl

they're getting thunderstorms in birmingham now and are expecting more around the 4th quarter. it's a turf field. they're also expecting some winds, and they're predicted to also really pick up around the 4th quarter. so something to keep an eye one.

this is actually kind of an interesting matchup. GT is one of those teams that can play with anyone and lose to just about anyone. and there's certainly a huge question re: their motivation today. are they going to care about this game after blowing the lead against georgia? they are missing some players. from actionnetwork.com....





singleton is their best receiver and efford is their leading tackler.

vanderbilt is without starting tackle gunnar hansen.

vanderbilt is in their first bowl since 2018. they came out of nowhere this year. and they just found out that pavia has been granted another season of eligibility. they should be feeling pretty good coming into this game.

quick look at the #s... it's hard to see how vandy had a solid season in the best conference. their offense can be painful to watch. their run game is non-existent. pavia has 25 more carries and 150 more yards than their top RB. pavia had a solid year throwing the ball, but their top receiver was TE stowers, with 45 catches for 583 yards. not exactly eye-popping numbers. oh, they must have a great defense. nope. they allow 8.0 yards/att, which is 112th in the country, and 4.2 yards/carry, which is in the middle of the pack. this is one of those teams that just figures out how to win games.

i'm going to ride the team with the big motivational edge.

vandy (ML) 4 to win 4.8

 

[Smitty]

Liberty Bowl
i'm going to include the entire piece from actionnetwork.com, because there's a lot.

Texas Tech offensive coordinator Zach Kittley left to take the head-coaching job at FAU. Texas Tech also let go of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter.

Texas Tech Transfer Portal

• Starting OT Ty Buchanan (627 snaps)
• OT Dalton Merryman (488 snaps)
• OLB Harvey Dyson (367 snaps; last played in Week 11)
• DT Trevon McAlpine (284 snaps)
• WR Jordan Brown (153 snaps)
• CB Jalon Peoples (135 snaps)
• WR Micah Hudson (87 snaps; signed with Texas A&M)
• OL Sterling Porcher

Texas Tech Injuries

Starting QB Behren Morton will miss the bowl after having surgery. Freshman Will Hammond, who did see some action this season, will start in his place.

Starting DTs De’Braylon Carroll and Quincy Ledet Jr. missed the finale. LB Bryce Ramirez (110 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 8. S Devynn Cromwell also didn’t play in the final few games.

Texas Tech Opt-Outs

• WR Josh Kelly

Texas Tech Potential Opt-Outs

• RB Tahj Brooks (listed as RB1 on bowl depth chart)

Arkansas Transfer Portal

• Starting C Addison Nichols (signed with SMU)
• Starting LG Andrew Kutas (signed with Ole Miss)
• Starting RG Joshua Braun (signed with UK)
• Starting WR Isaiah Sategna (signed with Oklahoma)
• Starting TE Luke Hasz (signed with Ole Miss)
• Starting S TJ Metcalf (signed with Michigan)
• LB Brad Spence (366 snaps; signed with Texas)
• DE Nico Davillier (362 snaps)
• RB Rashod Dubinion (175 snaps)
• TE Ty Washington (116 snaps)
• C Amaury Wiggins (94 snaps)
• CB Jaylon Braxton (77 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
• TE Var’Keyes Gumms (57 snaps)

None of the above are on the bowl depth chart.

Arkansas Opt-Outs

• Stud WR Andrew Armstrong
• RB Ja’Quinden Jackson
• DE Landon Jackson
• DT Eric Gregory

Arkansas Injuries

Arkansas is down to just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen on the roster. They will have a new starting center and right guard for the bowl game.

Wide receiver Tyrone Broden is also listed as doubtful, as he's attending to a family matter and is not with the team.

Here are the season snap counts for the starting skill positions on the bowl depth chart:

• RB Rodney Hill: 115
• WR Isaac TeSlaa: 360
• WR Monte Harrison: 58
• WR CJ Brown: 42
• TE Andreas Paaske: 153

the key, of course, is "Arkansas is down to just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen on the roster. They will have a new starting center and right guard for the bowl game."
most of hammond's game experience was when he came in for morton against TCU. he was solid, completing 10 of 15 for 121 (8.1/att), 1 TD and no INTs. he did fumble the ball twice, losing one. it was a big one, as TT was in range for a game-winning fg with 90 seconds left.
tell me this kid doesn't look like he should be playing qb in the 1950s.

Green took 30 sacks and threw 9 INTs this year. having a makeshift offensive line in front of him will not help.

TT (-2.5) 2X
Arkansas TT under 24.5 2X

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

i miss the days when BYU was frequently in the LV Bowl, because i loved the thought of a bunch of mormons running around vegas for a few days.

ok, i gotta keep this one short. these are the bowl games i hate. 2 teams that don't want to be here. ton of players missing.

USC is missing their top 2 RBs, but freshman bryan jackson got 6 carries against ND for 71 yards. he may have himself a big game tonight against a texas a&m defensive line missing 3 starters. "Texas A&M will be without defensive end Shemar Stewart, defensive end Nic Scourton and defensive tackle Shemar Turner against the Trojans, Elko told reporters Tuesday, according to Carter Karels."

i'll ride the "bet against the coach in his first year leading the program" trend.

USC (+3.5) 2.3 to win 2
USC (ML) 2 to win 2.7

 

[rocky mountain]

one note, before i forget... i can't bet syracuse games, so i won't spend time on the holiday bowl. but fran brown is in his first year at syracuse. so far, the trend has continued... coaches in their first year at the school are 1-4 ATS this year, with one more today (Mike Elko).

Birmingham Bowl

they're getting thunderstorms in birmingham now and are expecting more around the 4th quarter. it's a turf field. they're also expecting some winds, and they're predicted to also really pick up around the 4th quarter. so something to keep an eye one.

this is actually kind of an interesting matchup. GT is one of those teams that can play with anyone and lose to just about anyone. and there's certainly a huge question re: their motivation today. are they going to care about this game after blowing the lead against georgia? they are missing some players. from actionnetwork.com....

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View attachment 6968904

singleton is their best receiver and efford is their leading tackler.

vanderbilt is without starting tackle gunnar hansen.

vanderbilt is in their first bowl since 2018. they came out of nowhere this year. and they just found out that pavia has been granted another season of eligibility. they should be feeling pretty good coming into this game.

quick look at the #s... it's hard to see how vandy had a solid season in the best conference. their offense can be painful to watch. their run game is non-existent. pavia has 25 more carries and 150 more yards than their top RB. pavia had a solid year throwing the ball, but their top receiver was TE stowers, with 45 catches for 583 yards. not exactly eye-popping numbers. oh, they must have a great defense. nope. they allow 8.0 yards/att, which is 112th in the country, and 4.2 yards/carry, which is in the middle of the pack. this is one of those teams that just figures out how to win games.

i'm going to ride the team with the big motivational edge.

vandy (ML) 4 to win 4.8

Excellent call!

 

[rocky mountain]

This guy sucked.

 

[rocky mountain]

This guy sucked.

I hit live 14.5 , shew.. was ripe for a massive ass kicking on this game if that didn't come through. Mitigated the loss. Lucky... Playing with fire, my nerves are shot , as betting $800-$1,000 in these games , gets me turtled up... I got to tone it down a bit. Getting too carried away Smitty, too carried away trying to run with you big dogs...

 

[Smitty]

Getting too carried away Smitty, too carried away trying to run with you big dogs...

i think you have me confused with slum and jord. it may fluctuate from time to time, but generally speaking, my base (1-unit) wager for football is $50. so i had $250 on navy today. well, $450, including the 1H bet. that's enough for me. i rarely go much higher than that.

sounds like we need to have an intervention for you. we can meet up at oxnard's house.

 

[rocky mountain]

i think you have me confused with slum and jord. it may fluctuate from time to time, but generally speaking, my base (1-unit) wager for football is $50. so i had $250 on navy today. well, $450, including the 1H bet. that's enough for me. i rarely go much higher than that.

sounds like we need to have an intervention for you. we can meet up at oxnard's house.

I have to change my units. I always treat 1 as a $100, never thought about doing that, which is much smarter. I bet just about 100g this year and if Syracuse covers the 18 then I'm up about $1,000. It's so stupid, my season is usually over by now...exhausting and stressful. Fun sometimes too though.

 

[rocky mountain]

I have to change my units. I always treat 1 as a $100, never thought about doing that, which is much smarter. I bet just about 100g this year and if Syracuse covers the 18 then I'm up about $1,000. It's so stupid, my season is usually over by now...exhausting and stressful. Fun sometimes too though.

Backdoored in Z arse. I wish Syracuse defense would have celebrated a little more during that last drive. I was really enjoying losing that $320 as they celebrated during the plays. Felt like I got my money's worth, it was rewarding , not financially, but emotionally....