12/29 Bowls

[Smitty]

after the first day of bowls, my picks have been like kobe bryant's shots... i can't hit a fucking thing. :facepalm:

Armed Forces Bowl

air force (+7) 2 units
air force (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. i normally look to bet against option teams in bowl games because having a couple extra weeks to prepare for the option is huge. but cal's run defense is pretty bad. air force can grind out some long possessions, keeping cal's offense off the field and out of rhythm.

 

[Smitty]

Russell Athletic Bowl

Russell Athletic Bowl

unc (-3.5) 3 units. should be a big motivational edge for the heels. and from what i've seen of johnson, he's pretty bad. as long as williams can avoid more than one bad turnover, the heels should roll today.

 

[Smitty]

Arizona Bowl

Arizona Bowl

i'm so confused... arizona played in the new mexico bowl, but new mexico isn't playing in the arizona bowl? wtf?

nevada (+3.5) 2 units
nevada (ML) 2 units to win 2.9. this one looks pretty straightforward. if nevada can run the ball, they win. if they can't, they lose. well, fortunately for them, colorado st is 107th in the country, allowing 208.5 yards/game. also, and i wish i was tracking this better, but it seems to me that coaches do not do well in their first bowl game. this is #1 for the rams' mike bobo.

 

[Smitty]

Texas Bowl

Texas Bowl

texas tech (+7) 2 units
texas tech (ML) 1 unit to win 2.3. this is not a vintage lsu secondary. they gave up 325 yards to brandon doughty, 280 to chad kelly, 335 to dak prescott, and 271 to treon harris (treon harris!). mahomes should be able to light these guys up, especially if they are less than enthused to be in the texas bowl. if the red raiders starting light up the scoreboard and lsu is forced to throw to keep up, the tigers are in trouble.

over (73.5) 2 units. ok, lsu should have an easy time on the ground early, as texas tech's run defense is horrible. fournette should have about 4 TDs himself. maybe just in the first half. i figure lsu will be up around 14-0 with 174 yards on the ground before tech gets the air attack going. after that, it's going to be a shootout.

 

[Smitty]

unc (-3.5) 3 units. should be a big motivational edge for the heels. and from what i've seen of johnson, he's pretty bad. as long as williams can avoid more than one bad turnover, the heels should roll today.

sorry about this one. apparently gene chizik failed to recognize that johnson can't throw the ball. even after giving up well over 300 yards rushing in the first half. maybe he didn't watch any tape the last 3 weeks and didn't watch the first half either. because when your opponent has almost zero threat of a passing game and you are still only putting 6 or 7 guys in the box, you clearly have no idea what the fuck you are doing. :facepalm:

 

[Smitty]

i figure lsu will be up around 14-0 with 174 yards on the ground before tech gets the air attack going.

halfway there already....