12/31 Bowls

[rocky mountain]

"Cotton Bowl"
When I saw the first round matchups, I knew immediately I was going to be on the 'Canes. With the thought that I would then fade them in the 2nd round. I didn't see the brackets though. Obviously there's no value betting against them in this matchup. That said, I'm in no hurry to bet on them either.

Let me just say, Ohio St has yet to impress me. The season-opening win over Texas certainly isn't as impressive as first thought. And who else did they beat? The Big 10 was trash this year. And they lost the only game they were challenged (Big 10 Championship Game). Sayin, in his first year as the starter, obviously put up big numbers. And he was decent against Indiana overall, but he threw the INT on their opening drive to set up Indiana with their first points. And he took 5 sacks. They're going to need him to be better tonight.

Freshman RB Bo Jackson (love it) had an excellent year, averaging 6.2 yards/carry. Today, we're going to find out if he can do it against a very good run defense. Miami is 9th in the country, allowing 2.9 yards/rush. And while the first thought may be "sure, but that was against the ACC," they also shut down Love of ND and they went into College Station and shut down A&M's rushing attack. They also sacked Reed (a mobile qb) 7 times. I think it's fair to say their defense is legit.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio St's defense is, duh, also pretty good. They lead the country, allowing just 3.9 yards/play. I'll go out on a limb and say it's highly unlikely Miami RB Fletcher is going to rack up another 172 yards on the ground tonight. The big X factor is freshman Toney. He was able to put the fumble behind him and score the winning (and only) TD at A&M. They will need a big play or two from him, either on offense or returning punts. Carson Beck is much maligned around these parts, and he's certainly not flashy, but he's solid and he won't get rattled tonight.

I like Miami to keep this one close for a while. Obviously, overall, they just don't have the talent on the roster that Ohio St does, and the Buckeyes may pull away. But Ohio St hasn't played in 25 days. And their offense wasn't exactly rolling in their last game. Their only TD was set up when they got an INT at the Indiana 25-yard line.

Miami 1Q (+2.5) 2 to win 2.1
Ohio St 1Q TT Under (5.5) 2 units
1Q Over (7.5) 4 to win 4

Fuck, I can't help myself... my initial thought a few weeks ago was to bet against Miami tonight, and I'm gonna do it.

Ohio St (-7.5) 2.3 to win 2

Its like strip poker and now your down to your boxers! Nothing lost though. I thought you had all the 1st quarters came back to congrats you, thought it was under 7.5. Miami looks legit.

 

[Smitty]

Im confused did you mean Michigan, seems like you were going to say Meeeechigan?

if nobody minds, i'm going to change that back to "texas."

Citrus Bowl
I was hoping Underwood would sit this one out, but no such luck.

i caught the last 10 minutes of the game. michigan was up 27-24. underwood threw back-to-back INTs and michigan was toast. almost as good as the INTs... on their last possession, driving for the backdoor cover for ol' smitty.... underwood threw the ball well out of bounds on 3rd-and-19 AND 4th-and-19.

he's the QB at michigan. he's probably making millions in NIL deals. this shit is fucking insane.

 

[Smitty]

Nice call on Utah. I had a small action play on NEB. I have no idea why I keep backing that coach of theirs.

ruhle is such a joke. i mean, i give him credit for what he did at temple. but even in his 2 good years there, he was absolutely clueless about how to manage a game. a 7-year old would make better use of his timeouts. i laughed when baylor hired him and then i REALLY laughed when carolina hired him.

 

[Smitty]

Its like strip poker and now your down to your boxers! Nothing lost though. I thought you had all the 1st quarters came back to congrats you, thought it was under 7.5. Miami looks legit.

i could have just gone 2-0 on that game so easily. those 1Q bets felt almost TOO easy. i pulled back my bets on those. and then i saw the book i consider the "sharper" of my 2 primary books had the 1Q over at 8.5 and even higher juice than the other book had at 7.5. it completely went against how i thought the game would start, but it's an angle that usually works for me. it cost me this time. and THEN... the really, really stupid part... i thought the game line was moving the other way. i saw one book at 7.5 and i thought the other had bumped up to 8.5. that's the only reason i ended up betting ohio st for the game. of course, as i later read other posts, i realized that the line was dropping, not going up.

it really sucks when your read on a game is right, but you end up losing money. Sayin just made too many mistakes against a good defense. and the people ripping carson beck don't know what the hell they're talking about. what a gutty performance by him tonight. (side note... holy shit, did the officials FUCK miami when they ruled he was a yard short on his 3rd-and-11 scramble. i think if he had been ruled short, there was enough evidence to overturn the call. how the fuck they overturned it in the other direction is beyond me.)

i hope to have a little time in the morning to work on the early game, but i'll pretty much definitely be on tech and some unders of some sort.

 

[rocky mountain]

i could have just gone 2-0 on that game so easily. those 1Q bets felt almost TOO easy. i pulled back my bets on those. and then i saw the book i consider the "sharper" of my 2 primary books had the 1Q over at 8.5 and even higher juice than the other book had at 7.5. it completely went against how i thought the game would start, but it's an angle that usually works for me. it cost me this time. and THEN... the really, really stupid part... i thought the game line was moving the other way. i saw one book at 7.5 and i thought the other had bumped up to 8.5. that's the only reason i ended up betting ohio st for the game. of course, as i later read other posts, i realized that the line was dropping, not going up.

it really sucks when your read on a game is right, but you end up losing money. Sayin just made too many mistakes against a good defense. and the people ripping carson beck don't know what the hell they're talking about. what a gutty performance by him tonight. (side note... holy shit, did the officials FUCK miami when they ruled he was a yard short on his 3rd-and-11 scramble. i think if he had been ruled short, there was enough evidence to overturn the call. how the fuck they overturned it in the other direction is beyond me.)

i hope to have a little time in the morning to work on the early game, but i'll pretty much definitely be on tech and some unders of some sort.

Totally agree Carson Beck was great managing that victory. Think it was you or someone else that pointed out that the new right guard had to hold up and Miami vicious defense exploited that weakness all night.