12/7 Notes: St. Bonaventure is one of those teams out there who is going to surprise some people. They have a senior PG, and a big man, and with those qualities, they can show up any night. This matchup last year resulted in a one-point victory on the road for St. John?s as they were favored going in by 4.5. These two teams are probably more similar to one another than the line indicates, but Bonny goes through scoring droughts often enough to keep me off the high number. I like some spots with Bonny in the A-10, not here against the Big East. Memphis is 7-0, albeit against a #332 strength of schedule. I thought the # was a little high here too, but looking at last year?s box score, Memphis attempted 12 more shots, and 20 more three-pointers, and still lost the game outright as a 10.5 point dog on a neutral court. Memphis had revenge last year from the post-season loss, so I?m not sure it qualifies here, although it could. Memphis will be a bit more experienced than last year, but so will Kansas. In last year?s game, we had a total of 112. Obviously, with a lined total of 151, both teams are going to get out and go, and it?s because of that that I can?t put any value on Memphis, b/c Kansas is much better suited to get out and go, rather than a half court setting. This isn?t the same Memphis teams of the past, they struggle to rebound, they aren?t as good at defending, and the offense isn?t as smooth. They just haven?t played anyone to where those weaknesses could show. Kansas should put on a show tonight. James Madison is coming off an awful conference loss to Georgia State and are on the 3rd game of a 5 game roady. They have beaten nobody worth mentioning, and their strength of schedule would be the worst in the country had it not opened the year with Kansas State. Marshall lost half its minutes from a year ago but they bring in Tom Herrion who left Pitt as an assistant, and before that all he did was guide College of Charleston to title after title every year in the SOCON. I?m not really interested in taking part in anything James Madison while they?re on this road trip, and while Marshall is pretty sound on the defensive end, they do lack scoring that might be needed here. Old Dominion?s loss at Delaware was extremely shocking, although kenpom?s formula predicted that they would lose. East Carolina, as I have mentioned before, focuses on two main aspects of basketball: shooting three?s and getting layups. If the Old Dominion defense shows up (which I fully expect off of a bad conference loss), ODU will take both of those intangibles away as they normally do. ECU lost both of its games in convincing fashion as a dog and they have played the second to worst strength of schedule in the nation. The home team has one the Georgia/Georgia Tech rivalry all but one time since 1995. I don?t want any part of either of those teams at this point in the season. It sure seems like both Northern Iowa and Iowa are playing at faster paces this year, but the stats don?t show it primarily due to the defense that both teams play. UNI is slowest team in the country presently, and Iowa is mid-pack. This is a game lined at 121, and while UNI?s defense should cause Iowa fits, Iowa should be able to put up more than the 50 it did last year. I lean to the over, it makes no sense, but both these teams are running more in my eyes. Pepperdine beat Utah outright last year as a 6 point pup at home and they return everyone from last year?s squad. However, their offense is terribly ineffective and their best asset is getting to the foul line, something they did against Utah a total of 33 times last year. It?s pretty simple; In Pepperdine?s wins, they?re getting to the foul line an average of 30 times a game, and in their losses, only 19 trips. Utah has yet to play a D-1 squad where they commit more than 20 fouls. Both teams like to get out and go, so Pepperdine getting to the foul line could be added value to the total. Neither team shot all that impressive last year, and both played at much slower paces, and they still hit 145. Utah?s been filling it up at home; nothing should change here with a team that lacks defense. Utah State has won 69 of its last 71 home games and has revenge from a loss last year and head coach Stew Morrill is going for his 300th win. Long Beach State thrives on getting up the maximum amount of shots and hoping some of them fall. They don?t shoot it all that well, but they attempt enough to shoot at a 35% clip and win ballgames. They?re style is an up-tempo, but they don?t have all that great of an offense. Only other comparable defenses they have played this year was Clemson (lost by 14) and St. Peter?s (they have much more offense than St. Peter?s, and St. Peter?s was playing its 3rd game in 3 days)...
...I?m going to play Purdue and Valpo to go over the 129. Purdue is coming off of three under ballgames in which they played slow tempo teams in Bama, Richmond, and Virginia Tech. The same can be said for Valpo who is coming off a back-to-back in Chicago with Loyola and UIC. Valpo has played one team similar to Purdue in terms of talent and that was Kansas. They only scored 44, but that was on the road and a 27% performance from the field at home is probably not going to duplicate itself. Purdue has a few injuries to account for with Byrd and John Hart, and while both of those players can score, they were getting playing time because of their effort on defense. Purdue should be somewhat of a more explosive team with some added height and an offensive rebounding presence from its taller guards. I have zero interest in Michigan State and Syracuse. Michigan State should probably be favored, but they have struggled with teams that are defensive oriented with length. Both Syracuse and Uconn qualify in that category. Syracuse is too young to back in the Garden, and Michigan State is turning the ball over at an alarming pace (#323 in the country). With that said, I think this game is slower than normal. Just a hunch, but when an Izzo team is turning the ball over that much, it?s time to re-group, slow it down, play to your strength, and both team?s strength?s are its defense. Cuse can?t run and expect to make a game out of it.
I flat out hate putting money on suck and suck type games, but there is some value in one of these games tonight. Last year, San Diego travelled to Fresno State and got flat out leveled, allowing 69 points, and only shooting 18% from the field en route to a season low 37 points. Why such a low output, was Fresno?s defense that good? I?m going to guess that it was due to the absence of Brandon Johnson, the career leading scorer at San Diego, who was suspended for disciplinary reasons prior to last year?s game. He was everything to San Diego last year, and even with him out, they were still a 1 point favorite on the road. Not only that, but the loss at Fresno was at the tail end of a horrendous six game stretch. In the Alaska Shootout, they upset Oklahoma, they upset Houston, and got waxed by Washington State by close to 40 points which started their little slide. They had to bounce back the following game, and took a talented San Diego State team to overtime at home and lost, two days later they had to go back on the road for their 4th out of 5 game stint on the road to UC Riverside and lost, despite holding a 16 point halftime lead, partly due to the actions of Brandon Johnson in the 2H, forcing him to be suspended for the 5th road game in a 10 day period at Fresno State and I pointed that out above. That?s about a brutal stretch and emotional swing in a period of ten days that you will see anywhere in college basketball. They fought tooth and nail with some good competition in a tournament setting, they had some emotional losses, they collapsed, then they lost their leading scorer and Mr. everything on the court, and they collapsed even harder. Obviously, this is a new year, and Brandon Johnson is gone. Fortunately for San Diego, they actually have had an entire offseason to prepare without him, and have failed in the win column thus far. They have one win at that comes against Occidental. Yup, embarrassing to say the least. I actually went against this San Diego team last week and won with UC Irvine. If you can go back to the 12/1 Notes, I mention the inability of San Diego to consistently put the ball in the hoop. They have always been known for a strong backcourt, which they obviously lack this year. Against that Irvine squad, they were completely overmatched at the guard position with UC Irvine playing four, sometimes five guards on the court this year. The key to betting on UC Irvine there was tempo. They had the guards to push the tempo, and they had the guards to score, where San Diego is more comfortable getting into a half court setting and utilizing their big men with the loss of some pretty important guards to graduation last year. I know this, San Diego is terrible. However, this is going to be the one spot they have a chance at winning until late January. After this game, they go on the road for a month against D-1 competition (I?m not counting a matchup with La Verne). Fresno State has played a top ten strength of schedule, but there are obvious similarities to this exact same spot that San Diego was in last year...
...Fresno?s lone win comes over Vanguard. They have essentially been on the road since the start of the season. Their lone home game was against Washington State where they led with 14 minutes remaining and then the ceiling collapsed. They were held scoreless for almost ten minutes, and lost the game by 11. They followed that up with two road losses and come in here tonight to end this road trip. They?ve endured the emotional losses as pointed out by the Washington State game, and they?ve flat out sucked on the road and gotten off to horrendous starts on the road, not leading a single game at the half this year (with the exception of the home game against Wash St). Anytime I?m going to take a look at San Diego, it?s going to have to be a team that flat out has no guard play, and Fresno fits the description after being given some NCAA sanctions and playing with only a handful of scholarship players due to those limitations. Fresno lost Paul George, their Mr. Everything last year. Ladd was a freshman guard last year, he was kicked off the team. The only other returning guard they had come in, which was probably their most athletic wing player, was Steven Shepp, and Mr. Shepp couldn?t keep his grades up to play first semester. Now, for the guards on this year?s squad, they all have three things in common. None of them can handle the ball, none of them can shoot the 3, and none of them can make a free throw. Coming into the year, I thought Fresno?s best option at guard would be Tim Steed, but he is coming off the bench and coming from the JUCO style of play, he has recorded more turnovers than field goals this year. Fortunately, for Fresno State, they have one strong spot and that is down low in Greg Smith. He was the freshman of the year last year in the WAC, but this year he has a mere 21 field goals compared to his 16 turnovers. Why the change? He has no one to get him the ball. With the guards they had last year, they fed him the ball and were able to space him out. It has yet to happen this year. I take that back, it happened one game against UC Santa Barbara, who has no inside presence worth mentioning. A majority of Fresno?s matchups have been against teams that feature little or no guard play (outside of Wash St), and Smith has struggled. I expect that to continue as interior defense is the strength of this San Diego squad. While I have noted San Diego?s lack of guard play many times this season, it can only get better, and it has started getting better in its previous two games. In both the Fullerton and Irvine games, they were forced to go with smaller lineups, sometimes exhibiting a lineup with five guards at certain times. It just so happened to be their two highest scoring games of the year totaling 82, and 76. They were just dominated by better players. That isn?t the case tonight on the perimeter, as San Diego features the more experienced, more talented, more desperate guards for probably the one and only time this year. Add in the slight revenge, and the poor scheduling and emotional losses for Fresno, and I get a bit of value in the home pup. Fresno State has a mini-four game schedule that features four straight games where the opponent has revenge from last year. Colorado State got revenge in the first game, game #2 comes tonight.
Bets
San Diego (3 Units)
Purdue/Valpo Over 129 (1 Unit)
Source: member at another forum
...I?m going to play Purdue and Valpo to go over the 129. Purdue is coming off of three under ballgames in which they played slow tempo teams in Bama, Richmond, and Virginia Tech. The same can be said for Valpo who is coming off a back-to-back in Chicago with Loyola and UIC. Valpo has played one team similar to Purdue in terms of talent and that was Kansas. They only scored 44, but that was on the road and a 27% performance from the field at home is probably not going to duplicate itself. Purdue has a few injuries to account for with Byrd and John Hart, and while both of those players can score, they were getting playing time because of their effort on defense. Purdue should be somewhat of a more explosive team with some added height and an offensive rebounding presence from its taller guards. I have zero interest in Michigan State and Syracuse. Michigan State should probably be favored, but they have struggled with teams that are defensive oriented with length. Both Syracuse and Uconn qualify in that category. Syracuse is too young to back in the Garden, and Michigan State is turning the ball over at an alarming pace (#323 in the country). With that said, I think this game is slower than normal. Just a hunch, but when an Izzo team is turning the ball over that much, it?s time to re-group, slow it down, play to your strength, and both team?s strength?s are its defense. Cuse can?t run and expect to make a game out of it.
I flat out hate putting money on suck and suck type games, but there is some value in one of these games tonight. Last year, San Diego travelled to Fresno State and got flat out leveled, allowing 69 points, and only shooting 18% from the field en route to a season low 37 points. Why such a low output, was Fresno?s defense that good? I?m going to guess that it was due to the absence of Brandon Johnson, the career leading scorer at San Diego, who was suspended for disciplinary reasons prior to last year?s game. He was everything to San Diego last year, and even with him out, they were still a 1 point favorite on the road. Not only that, but the loss at Fresno was at the tail end of a horrendous six game stretch. In the Alaska Shootout, they upset Oklahoma, they upset Houston, and got waxed by Washington State by close to 40 points which started their little slide. They had to bounce back the following game, and took a talented San Diego State team to overtime at home and lost, two days later they had to go back on the road for their 4th out of 5 game stint on the road to UC Riverside and lost, despite holding a 16 point halftime lead, partly due to the actions of Brandon Johnson in the 2H, forcing him to be suspended for the 5th road game in a 10 day period at Fresno State and I pointed that out above. That?s about a brutal stretch and emotional swing in a period of ten days that you will see anywhere in college basketball. They fought tooth and nail with some good competition in a tournament setting, they had some emotional losses, they collapsed, then they lost their leading scorer and Mr. everything on the court, and they collapsed even harder. Obviously, this is a new year, and Brandon Johnson is gone. Fortunately for San Diego, they actually have had an entire offseason to prepare without him, and have failed in the win column thus far. They have one win at that comes against Occidental. Yup, embarrassing to say the least. I actually went against this San Diego team last week and won with UC Irvine. If you can go back to the 12/1 Notes, I mention the inability of San Diego to consistently put the ball in the hoop. They have always been known for a strong backcourt, which they obviously lack this year. Against that Irvine squad, they were completely overmatched at the guard position with UC Irvine playing four, sometimes five guards on the court this year. The key to betting on UC Irvine there was tempo. They had the guards to push the tempo, and they had the guards to score, where San Diego is more comfortable getting into a half court setting and utilizing their big men with the loss of some pretty important guards to graduation last year. I know this, San Diego is terrible. However, this is going to be the one spot they have a chance at winning until late January. After this game, they go on the road for a month against D-1 competition (I?m not counting a matchup with La Verne). Fresno State has played a top ten strength of schedule, but there are obvious similarities to this exact same spot that San Diego was in last year...
...Fresno?s lone win comes over Vanguard. They have essentially been on the road since the start of the season. Their lone home game was against Washington State where they led with 14 minutes remaining and then the ceiling collapsed. They were held scoreless for almost ten minutes, and lost the game by 11. They followed that up with two road losses and come in here tonight to end this road trip. They?ve endured the emotional losses as pointed out by the Washington State game, and they?ve flat out sucked on the road and gotten off to horrendous starts on the road, not leading a single game at the half this year (with the exception of the home game against Wash St). Anytime I?m going to take a look at San Diego, it?s going to have to be a team that flat out has no guard play, and Fresno fits the description after being given some NCAA sanctions and playing with only a handful of scholarship players due to those limitations. Fresno lost Paul George, their Mr. Everything last year. Ladd was a freshman guard last year, he was kicked off the team. The only other returning guard they had come in, which was probably their most athletic wing player, was Steven Shepp, and Mr. Shepp couldn?t keep his grades up to play first semester. Now, for the guards on this year?s squad, they all have three things in common. None of them can handle the ball, none of them can shoot the 3, and none of them can make a free throw. Coming into the year, I thought Fresno?s best option at guard would be Tim Steed, but he is coming off the bench and coming from the JUCO style of play, he has recorded more turnovers than field goals this year. Fortunately, for Fresno State, they have one strong spot and that is down low in Greg Smith. He was the freshman of the year last year in the WAC, but this year he has a mere 21 field goals compared to his 16 turnovers. Why the change? He has no one to get him the ball. With the guards they had last year, they fed him the ball and were able to space him out. It has yet to happen this year. I take that back, it happened one game against UC Santa Barbara, who has no inside presence worth mentioning. A majority of Fresno?s matchups have been against teams that feature little or no guard play (outside of Wash St), and Smith has struggled. I expect that to continue as interior defense is the strength of this San Diego squad. While I have noted San Diego?s lack of guard play many times this season, it can only get better, and it has started getting better in its previous two games. In both the Fullerton and Irvine games, they were forced to go with smaller lineups, sometimes exhibiting a lineup with five guards at certain times. It just so happened to be their two highest scoring games of the year totaling 82, and 76. They were just dominated by better players. That isn?t the case tonight on the perimeter, as San Diego features the more experienced, more talented, more desperate guards for probably the one and only time this year. Add in the slight revenge, and the poor scheduling and emotional losses for Fresno, and I get a bit of value in the home pup. Fresno State has a mini-four game schedule that features four straight games where the opponent has revenge from last year. Colorado State got revenge in the first game, game #2 comes tonight.
Bets
San Diego (3 Units)
Purdue/Valpo Over 129 (1 Unit)
Source: member at another forum
