NFL Postseason: 4-3 (-0.46*)
NFL Regular Season YTD: 56-46 (+6.05*)
NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 13-11 (+1.12*)
NCAA Regular Season YTD: 59-62 (-9.70*)
Top Plays (included above): 5-2 (+3.59*)
All Plays YTD: 132-122 (-2.99*)
More lost juice last week. Felt like I deserved a better fate. Expecting something less than 2-0 this week.
San Francisco(+3') over Seattle (1*)
- - ODDS and ENDS:
(1) I don't think you've been paying attention if you haven't noticed that San Francisco has completely defied recent NFL trends by being formidable all season and then peaking late while wearing the mantle of Super Bowl loser, while Seattle has not been making any significant strides since November. On the other hand, it's not defying recent NFL trends to say that if you can find a hot team in January, that's a big plus.
(2) In order to have a realistic chance to take on the 12th Man in Seattle and win, I think it is very important that you have some recent experience in the role. I expected New Orleans to get smoked when they went to Seattle for the first time this year, but the second time they arrived saltier and resolute to shock the world; I still liked Seattle, but I didn't dismiss the chances of New Orleans as the visitor. The new regime in Arizona had the benefit of looking to avenge a 58-0 mauling from the prior season. If Carolina was paying an "initial visit" to Seattle today off the heady accomplishment of winning a playoff game, I would expect Seattle to overwhelm them early and often . . . Not only does San Francisco have plenty of familiarity with their division rival, they have a collective point to prove in their biggest game of the year. And I can look at the matchups across the board in this game and confidently say that unless Seattle manages to get inside Colin Kaepernick's head and unhinge him completely from his identity as a 4-1 starting quarterback in post season games, then I like the San Francisco team that was down 5-0 at halftime (after a 60 minute thunderstorm delay) in their earlier trip to Seattle to be playing huge on this stage. But this game in this environment has a field goal difference written all over it without a rash of turnovers.
(3) Over his last five games, I believe Seattle QB Russell Wilson is averaging 157 passing ypg, but coach Pete Carroll says he is "playing great." I expect San Francisco to do a strong job today of making Wilson try and beat them from the pocket with an inferior arsenal of weapons. It will be a big chore to beat the Niners if you are one dimensional, even if that dimension is Marshawn Lynch . . . If Seattle sets a fierce tempo in this game, IMO it will only come about if the moment is too big for Kaepernick, and I think he's got way too much support available to let the game get away from him in that manner. But this game in this environment has field goal written all over it without a rash of turnovers.
(4) Blurbs from elsewhere . . . "Former 49ers quarterback Steve Young, on his weekly KNBR radio show, gave the 49ers a clear advantage. He loves the way Kaepernick has played of late and has his doubts that Seattle's formula of relying on a smash-mouth running game, suffocating defense and utilizing the crowd noise will be enough. "I think they can do that to most teams in the league, and if the 49ers go in and have the noise and chaos and interceptions and are behind 17-3, then that system works," Young said. "It just seems to me that the 49ers are the grittier team, more offensively expansive, and put more pressure on people." Former New York Giants quarterback and current CBS analyst Phil Simms said Seattle's passing offense hasn't progressed in recent weeks but lauded Wilson's ability to avoid mistakes . . . "Wilson hasn't thrown for more than 206 yards in his last five games. On third down he has completed less than 47 percent of his passes and has been sacked seven times, just on third down. The Seahawks have a poor 29 percent third-down conversion rate in that stretch. I can't tell you exactly what is causing Wilson's slump, but you can see it. Sometimes it just happens. In basketball, a great shooter can go into a shooting slump. Wilson is playing a little tentatively and his game has become unstructured and random. Even on his biggest play of the game last week against New Orleans he was off. Wilson has been inaccurate on too many basic throws, especially quick slants. He was inaccurate on a quick slant to Golden Tate in the first quarter last week against the Saints on a third and 5. That's a routine throw Wilson has to make. Wilson at times is throwing with a locked front leg, which negatively impacts accuracy. That's especially noticeable in quick passing game. At this point Wilson is more of a random quarterback than a precision pocket player. There's too much inconsistency in his play. Wilson has become tentative in the pocket, and not willing to pull the trigger the way he did earlier in the season. And five games is a meaningful enough sample size to indicate he is struggling. (H)e could have a good game Sunday because I think he's a good player on a really good team. But I?d be surprised if he?s precise and efficient from the pocket, because he hasn't been for weeks. But he could improvise and make a few big plays and the numbers would look great; that wouldn?t surprise me. The same statement about improvising and making plays goes for 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, although he's not in a slump. Kaepernick is not a polished progression reader as a quarterback yet, but he is dangerous. It?s hard to be a quarterback in this league as an unstructured player, but you can make plays and he does." . . . "One other thing I wanted to mention is the noise at CenturyLink Field. There are tactical ramifications of crowd noise. It?s not just that it?s cool because it gets to earthquake levels. San Francisco's running game gets affected in Seattle. Kaepernick had 87 of the 49ers' 100 rushing yards in the first meeting this year in Seattle, a 29-3 Seahawks win. If you have a "check with me" system in the run game, that means the quarterback comes to the line and calls the play. If San Francisco has a power called to the left, Kaepernick could come to line and see a safety on the left side and know that?s where strength of defense is. He might want to switch the run to the right. The front determines the play when it's "check with me," but the quarterback doesn't know the front until he gets to the line of scrimmage. That is where the noise impacts the game tactically. It?s hard to communicate with the noise. You have to communicate this change and if you can?t you?ll have problems."
(5) Yea, I noted last week against Carolina there was no question San Fran is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games, but I had no doubt SF would be right there late in that game with their superior coaching, playoff experience, and better weapons . . . This may be the week when their tank is on empty or too low to compete effectively, but my cash says they are right there late in the game again this week with a trip to the Super Bowl for some unfinished business on the line.
GL
