135th Run for the Roses

[Mully]

I found this years Derby quite easy to handicap compared to years prior. I don't think this field is very deep. After throwing out the pretenders, I came down to this group of 12 that I will use in front and behind my top selection(s)for the exotics.

{Dunkirk, Summer Bird, Pioneer of the Nile, I want revenge, General Quarters, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire, Advice, West Side Bernie, Musket Man, Hold me back }

Ok, so knowing that 93% of all Derby Winners have come from post 1-15, I had to throw out Pioneer of the Nile & Summer Bird.

Also knowing that 80% of all Derby Winners have come from post 1-10, I had to throw out Dunkrik, I want revenge, General Quarters, & Chocolate Candy.

That left me with....

West Side Bernie
Musket Man
Advice
Hold me back
Friesan Fire
Papa Clem

Knowing that 86% of all Derby winners had at least 3 starts as a 3 year old, I had to throw out Hold me Back.

Knowing that 87% of all Derby winners raced their final prep 5 weeks or less prior to the big race, I had to throw out Friesan Fire.

Knowing that 88% of all Derby winners had a beyer fig of at least 100 in one of their previous 3 races, I had to throw out Musket Man & Advice.


Ok, so that leaves 2 horses that can win according to this system {West Side Bernie & Papa Clem}, but you can only choose 1 winner.


And the winner is.....




Papa Clem Best Bet West Side Bernie and Chocolate Candy a close 2nd

Bejarano is as good as it gets folks. When taking a good look at Papa's path to this race, there's no doubt in my mind he's faced the stiffest competition. Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge and Pioneer of the Nile will most likely be the top 3 betting choices come Saturday and my boy has been battling all of them. What really stood out at me was Papa's 1st maiden try. No respect at 22-1 and bobbled HARD out of the gate. The line looks horrific, but the horse that won that race {Gato Go Win} actually beat I Want Revenge just weeks earlier in another maiden try when just shy at the wire.

Look, a guy could go crazy and broke betting this damn thing, So here goes nothing.

$20 Win, Place & Show 1,7,11 {$180}

$1 Excata - 1,7,11 /1,2,4,5,6,7,11,12,15,16,17,19
$1 Excata - 1,2,4,5,6,7,11,12,15,16,17,19,/1,7,11
{$66}


$1 Tri- 1,7,11 /1,2,4,5,6,7,11,12,14,14,17,19/16
$1 Tri- 1,7,11/ 16 / 1,2,4,5,6,7,11,12,14,17,19
$1 Tri- 1,2,4,5,6,7,11,12,14,15,17,19 /16 / 1,7,11
$1 Tri- 1,2,4,5,6,7,11,12,14,15,17,19 /1,7,11,/ 16
{$132}


Total Wagered {$378}


Good Luck Players!!

 

[gjn23]

sorry, but eliminating horses just on post position is worthless

for about 100 years there were only 10-12 horses entered so the high % of winner starting in 1-10 gate and 1-15 gate is automatically going to be high.

using your logic, think you'd have lost 2 of the past 3 races just on post position (barbaro-big brown).

 

[Mully]

sorry, but eliminating horses just on post position is worthless

for about 100 years there were only 10-12 horses entered so the high % of winner starting in 1-10 gate and 1-15 gate is automatically going to be high.

using your logic, think you'd have lost 2 of the past 3 races just on post position (barbaro-big brown).

Good point. Never really thought about it like that.

Big Brown did hit the winners circle last year from post 20, However, Barbaro won from post 8 in 06 and Street Sense from post 7 in 07.. In fact, only 2 of the past 7 Derby winners have been from post 11 or higher. {smarty jones 04 post 13}

Lets just start from 1969...

29 of 39 Winners have come from inside post 74%

Maybe not the best handicaping method, but I wouldn't say worthless. There is some value in knowing these stats. I certainly would never play a Derby horse to win based on this informatin alone. Hell, a guy could close his eyes and point to the program and go with that horse and have just as good a shot to cash in a race like this one.

Good luck with your Derby Selections..

 

[Mully]

OK Wagers are now final. *updated original post

Went out to the track to watch the Filly in the Oaks. One word....WOW Jock was rubbing the Girl down while pointing at the stands at the quarter poll..

Still like Papa Clem the best, but decided to play my top 3 choices across the board. I Want Revenge no doubt should hit the board, so Keyed that one for 2nd and 3rd in the Tri. Caught a nice 18-1 shot in the 5th at Hollywood today and walked out up $700. Playing on house money tomorrow.

GOOD LUCK and ENJOY THE RACE!!!

 

[ageecee]

I really like West Side Bernie. Love his running style but dont like the post. He has to be in the middle of pack to have a shot.

 

[Mully]

OK....

Wagers are FINAL!

Had I Want Revenge keyed for 2nd and 3rd on all of my Tri tickets, but so much for that. Went back out to the track and made the wagers in original post final. Going to use Pioneer of The Nile as my key horse for 2nd and 3rd.

GL my peeps!