17 point theory

[Clem D]

I used to do well with this a few years back.

I decided to track how teams who win or lose by 17 or more points this year do the following week ATS, thinking that maybe lines would get adjusted too far. Also thinking the teams who got beat would respond better than teams who did the beating the week before.

In week 2 the the palys would have been on
The following teams who lost by 17 or more in week 1
Texans had a bye
Rams= Loser
Seahags Loser
Browns winner
raiders winner

The fades
Teams that won by more than 17 the week before are
Steelers.. did not cover
Eagles and Cowboys cancel each other out as they plyed each other
Bills. won outright
Denver did not cover.

tracking this so far this year
Teams coming off the 17+ point loss are 2-2 ats
Fading teams coming off a 17 +point win are
2-1

Double qualifiers, like cleveland who came off the huge loss playing a team coming off the big win are

1-0

 

[Blackman]

Great info -- thanks!

 

[Don Wallace]

Good Stuff

 

[Hooks]

That's the kind of thinking I love. Keep up with it, should do fine again this year.

 

[Hooks]

Also bodes well for my Skins this week :00hour

 

[Senor Capper]

v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g

v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g

Also bodes well for my Skins this week :00hour

:00x3

 

[Hooks]

:00x3

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: That is by far my favorite !!

 

[Clem D]

This week we would take the
Fade the Titans -5
The Pack +3
Giants-13.5
Arizona+3


Play on the Bengals+13.5 (Double Qualifier)
Lions +4
Rams+10
Miami +12.5

Im just tracking these. Not playing all of them

I do like a few of them though

 

[jer-z jock]

Thought this was VERY interesting and has a solid concept behind it, went 4-3 with the double qualifier cashing, maybe worth looking for another filter to eliminate teams that just SUCK, I offer the rams and Lions as an example. This week coming (week 4) should be very interesting and also a good marker to see about this "system" as there's 12 qualifying teams (if I am looking and going about this correctly) without looking at the byes and who plays who to maybe eliminate a team or two. I am about to look at the schedule for this coming week now, thanks for posting and sharing the info.

MNF has not ended and could qulify more teams

 

[Destructor D]

Until the Chiefs starting getting 20 points per game, don't look at them. Ditto with the Rams!

People say the Ohio teams are bad, but look at the atrocious display of football from the state of Missouri... Rams haven't even come within 3 TD's in any game this year... not sure they could stop an average college offense right now.

 

[Clem D]

Was on vacation last week and did not post
the plays on the teams coming off the 17 plus point loss would have been
Kc win
Houston win
Rams Loss
Browns win
Jets Win

4-1
8-5 ytd

Fading the 17 point winners
Atlanta w
Titans L
san fran w
Ravens L
Chargers L

2-3
6-7 ytd

This week
Fade

Jets Bye
Bills

Play
Cards
double qualifier

double qualifiers are 2-0

 

[Hooks]

Already had AZ. circled yesterday. I didn't even put this into my decesion :00hour

 

[TON]

:bump: