1st play for March! 1H dog play w/ analysis...

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Jun 21, 2004
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Updated 2005 record:
NFL: 7-2 +$2,700
NCAA Basketball: 34-24 +$3,965
NBA: 7-6 +$340
January Record: 25-17 60% +$4,000
February Record: 23-15 61% +$3,005
Overall record: 48-32 60% +$7,005

Hi guys! I feel nice and fresh off a nice 9 day break from the world of sports betting...just a recap I've been on a good run, cashing in profit in 12 of the last 14 days i've wagered. Finished up a solid month of Feb - hitting 61% in the 38 plays i made, netting $3,005 profit - adding to the solid 60% i hit in Jan and $4,000 profit - netting $7,005 profit for the season through 2 months, and 80 plays - hitting a dead even 60% overall for the year...always my goal to make $10,000+ a year so right on pace - let's get the month of March started w/ another winner!

Tonight i have one play that I just cannot pass up. Everyone has their own system - now my handicapping style focuses on breaking down the psychology of the line - you can follow trends & stats all you want but in the end you need to get in the head of the linesmaker and figure out which is the right side.

Tonight we have a Tulane team - who is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 teams...they are playing a tough Cincinnati club who is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games...looking at it - you may think - who on earth would want to play on this lousy Tulane team sporting a 9-16 overal record...well this is a spot i love to grab a team like Tulane - statistically Cincy avg. 11 more ppg than Tulane does...i doubt very many people will bet any other side than Cincy in this game...everyone is thinking blowout...well I think the linesmaker has set this one just a tad too high - i like Tulane +26 - but that is not my play - my play is on Tulane in the 1H.

Tulane is getting 14 points in the 1st half - so in 20 minutes of play Cincy needs to head to the locker room up by 15 to get the cover...digging into this alittle deeper in the 25 games Tulane has played they would have covered 14 point 1H spread 21 times - for a 84% rate...

Also i put more stock in what has happened the last 5 games - shows more how the teams have been playing - well Tulane is avg. 31.6 ppg in the 1H the last 5 games (and 29.6ppg for the season in 1H) while Cincy is avg. 35.0 ppg in the 1H the last 5 games and 36.8 in 1H for the season...Tulane must finish the season strong to even play in the C-USA tourney - so they will be fighting and i think especially they will keep it close in the first half...

The first half line is Tulane +14 - i say this is just a tad too high...Cincy is capable of blowing out Tulane, but i believe the percentages are higher in favor of Tulane covering the 14 in the first half, than them being down by 15+...as i said - in the public mind - who wants to bet a team like Tulane? Well - i do - i think we are getting tremendous point spread value - especially in the 1st half - and thus this is my recommendation for a solid 1st half play...

Let's get the month off to a positive start!

The Play:

Tulane +14 1st Half
Risking $440 to win $400

GL to all of you!

--SAVE IT!
 
P

PRO190

Guest
Hey, No stepping on my FH turf :grins:

JUST KIDDIN" Like the play , Cincy usually likes to crush bad teams but seems to do it in the 2nd HF..
 

gman2

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Nov 12, 2002
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always appreciate a guy like yourself who puts in the time to find value and potential winners. dont particularly like this play as tulane is just a bad basketball team, but respect your work nonetheless. good luck.
 

gman2

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Nov 12, 2002
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great call save it. really sloppy first half, and thats always good for the dog. nice work.
 

Save It

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Jun 21, 2004
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Another winner! Good start to the month - that will be all for me as I'll take a solid 1-0 +$400 day. As projected, 1st half line inflated just a tad too high on the side of Cincy and Tulane hung in tough after a slow start where they were down 17-4...

Loverboy - glad you tailed and we got this one - hopefully some others did as well...

gman2 - thanks for the kind words - and likewise - i respect all the hard work you put in to your plays and posting - you are a class act and much appreciated I always value what you have to say - like i said everyone has their own capping style - you seem to do quite well - keep up the great work you do as well - and i'm always glad to post and share my opinions w/ the fellow members - in the end i just play the plays i feel are the best

Like i said i try to get behind the psychology of the line and in this case i felt the bar was too high by the linesmaker for the Cincy -14 first half - because like i said - who wants to bet on a crappy team like Tulane? Even laying 14 i'm sure the money was on Cincy - and personally i would NEVER lay 14 on a 1st half - i'd rather look to the dog or pass on the game.

I'm a big contrarian and like to try and side w/ the minority - and a lot of time it puts me on the side of teams nobody wants - but these turn out to be my most solid plays.

GL guys w/ the rest of the night - one and done for myself...why ruin a good night - hope to make it 2 in a row tomorrow - if i see a play...gl all!

Updated 2005 record:
NFL: 7-2 +$2,700
NCAA Basketball: 35-24 +$4,365
NBA: 7-6 +$340
January Record: 25-17 60% +$4,000
February Record: 23-15 61% +$3,005
March Record: 1-0 100% :) +$400
Overall record: 49-32 60.5% +$7,405
 
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