36-31-1 -9.1 UNITS
Solid day yesterday. Looking at 2 games today, I know the Wake game is a toss up but the line movement is pushing me to take it small. I think 5 is a big # to cover in this match up, but the line seems right after some of road teams in the Wake/Duke/NC trilogy being favored at first. Playing todays card small
1.) Louisville -22 --- 1 UNIT
Although I want to lay a bit more on this one, I dont feel like having a big bad day and giving back some of yesterdays profits. I love Louis in this spot, I see the line being 5-6 points off due to Louisvilles recent track record of keeping it close with lower tier CUSA teams like South Florida and Marquette. THat lead to a 5 game ATS losing streak for Louis that I think will be ended today. Louisville averages 82.6 pts/game (83.3 at home) while St. Louis scores a lowly 55.7 (and an even worst 53.2 on the road). That in itself is a 30.1 pooint advantage. Take the fact that Louisville shoots 46.5% (6% higher than STL) from the field, and 39.6% from th arc (10.8% higher than STL) I definatley think a blowout is in route here. Louisville also only allows a stellar 58.1 pts/game at home and I don't see anyway STL will be able to stop Francisco, Dean and company
2.) Wake +5 -- 1/2 UNIT
Going strictly with a lean here. All the handicapping in the world won't matter here, its a toss up.
3.) Michigan -1.5 -- 1/2 UNIT
Going with Master Capper here, looked at the game and love UM. IU has covered the last 6 straight in this series, and UM is a dismal 7-15 ATS, but in my humble opinion I think the fact that IU only scores 59.1 pts/game on the road and UM scores 63.1 pts/game at home, combined with a more solid D by UM at home, that will be the difference/ best of luck
Solid day yesterday. Looking at 2 games today, I know the Wake game is a toss up but the line movement is pushing me to take it small. I think 5 is a big # to cover in this match up, but the line seems right after some of road teams in the Wake/Duke/NC trilogy being favored at first. Playing todays card small
1.) Louisville -22 --- 1 UNIT
Although I want to lay a bit more on this one, I dont feel like having a big bad day and giving back some of yesterdays profits. I love Louis in this spot, I see the line being 5-6 points off due to Louisvilles recent track record of keeping it close with lower tier CUSA teams like South Florida and Marquette. THat lead to a 5 game ATS losing streak for Louis that I think will be ended today. Louisville averages 82.6 pts/game (83.3 at home) while St. Louis scores a lowly 55.7 (and an even worst 53.2 on the road). That in itself is a 30.1 pooint advantage. Take the fact that Louisville shoots 46.5% (6% higher than STL) from the field, and 39.6% from th arc (10.8% higher than STL) I definatley think a blowout is in route here. Louisville also only allows a stellar 58.1 pts/game at home and I don't see anyway STL will be able to stop Francisco, Dean and company
2.) Wake +5 -- 1/2 UNIT
Going strictly with a lean here. All the handicapping in the world won't matter here, its a toss up.
3.) Michigan -1.5 -- 1/2 UNIT
Going with Master Capper here, looked at the game and love UM. IU has covered the last 6 straight in this series, and UM is a dismal 7-15 ATS, but in my humble opinion I think the fact that IU only scores 59.1 pts/game on the road and UM scores 63.1 pts/game at home, combined with a more solid D by UM at home, that will be the difference/ best of luck
