Updated record:
Big 12: 22-8-1 (18.3 units)
Other: 7-4 (1.3 units)
Total last 42 plays: 29-12-1 (19.6 units)
Thanks for the encouragment over the last week or so fellas. On the hottest streak of my short gambling career (by far). Please don't take the above record to mean that I know more than I really do... Please research these games before you bet... I realize it will end soon, hopefully not today, but I am having fun riding it out. I was even able to win some money at Harrah's in KC tonight, nothing like walking away from a casino with more money than you came with.
Baylor +6.5 (ISU)
---- Baylor is 2-4 at home this season, with respectable wins against Kansas St. and Missouri... ISU is on par with KSU, and not much more talented than MU.
Baylor has been good to me this year... ISU really hasn't. They are all over the map. I find it hard to predict days in which they will show up or not. I like the fact that ISU's big strength is also where BU is strong, in the backcourt. I think Baylor will keep this one close at home.
Nebraska +7.5 (@TAMU)
--- Line just seems too high for the type of basketball these two teams play. TAMU is 14-2 at home, but in the Big 12, they have consistantly played very tight games. They only beat OSU by 2 at home, they only beat Baylor by 2 at home. Colorado they beat by 3 in College Station.
Nebraska is a gritty team that has been playing well together.
Texas -6.5 (KU)
---- This one pains me. I don't like to bet for or against the Hawks, but the last month or so I have been capping them very, very accurately (don't mean to sound conceded). This is actually a two unit play for me. And unfortunately, I see this game as them coming back to earth.
In their last 10 games, they have played 6 in The Fieldhouse, where they expectedly thrashed every team they played, except for the 1 point miracle against OU. Their last 4 road games they have beaten TAMU, ISU, Neb., and OSU. In other words, they only played one quality opponent, and they got thrashed for 30+ minutes but came up with a miracle. The other nine games were against the lambs of this mediocre conferance, where the young guys were able to run over lesser talented players.
Playing in Austin is a whole other beast. Aldridge is going to have a big, big game I think. KU's interior defense leaves something to be desired. Giles is their only gifted defender down low, but he doesn't get a lot of playing time because he is always in foul trouble. I expect Self to give him more time in this one to try to slow down Aldridge, and if so... I wish Vegas gave odds on a player fouling out. "The Big Awkward" Sasha Kaun v. Aldridge is a big advantage to UT. Also, I hope KU doesn't expect Wright to guard Tucker, because that is another matchup UT can exploit.
Another factor, although I agree with a lot of you that it is one of the most overrated factor in handicapping, is revenge. I think in this case it has a small amount of weight, because UT's star players will remember January in Lawrence when KU refused to take their foot off the gas petal in a 90-65 demolition. UT won't take these guys lightly (even though it is a mostly new group of guys) and if they get a chance to bury KU, they will.
Another guy on the board said this game opened at UT-8, which Vegas would know would drive the public to KU. I say this a lot, but those guys are not idiots.
Texas Tech +6.5 (@OSU)
--- Yeah, I am drinking the TT kool-aid. Since the start of February they have gotten their act together (i think they have only failed to cover one of those games).
They don't have a lot of talent, but outside of two players, the Pokes don't either. And the Pokes are playing for a coach that took over for his maligned father, while TT is playing for one of the greatest coaches in the history of the game (his show on ESPN is highly recomended... the unintentional comedy is high... and it also shows, to a small degree, why Knight has been so successful over the years... the guy can teach..).
This will be a two unit play for me as well.
I am going to stay away from the two other games. I realized I was leaning towards Mizzou, and then remembered that I still had an amount of alcohol in my system and they were playing in Colorado :scared . So take that mom, I can make rational decisions while inebriated. :talk:
Going to bed now, but I may add some plays later this afternoon, especially if I can wake up to a couple of wins in the early games (fingers crossed).
Big 12: 22-8-1 (18.3 units)
Other: 7-4 (1.3 units)
Total last 42 plays: 29-12-1 (19.6 units)
Thanks for the encouragment over the last week or so fellas. On the hottest streak of my short gambling career (by far). Please don't take the above record to mean that I know more than I really do... Please research these games before you bet... I realize it will end soon, hopefully not today, but I am having fun riding it out. I was even able to win some money at Harrah's in KC tonight, nothing like walking away from a casino with more money than you came with.
Baylor +6.5 (ISU)
---- Baylor is 2-4 at home this season, with respectable wins against Kansas St. and Missouri... ISU is on par with KSU, and not much more talented than MU.
Baylor has been good to me this year... ISU really hasn't. They are all over the map. I find it hard to predict days in which they will show up or not. I like the fact that ISU's big strength is also where BU is strong, in the backcourt. I think Baylor will keep this one close at home.
Nebraska +7.5 (@TAMU)
--- Line just seems too high for the type of basketball these two teams play. TAMU is 14-2 at home, but in the Big 12, they have consistantly played very tight games. They only beat OSU by 2 at home, they only beat Baylor by 2 at home. Colorado they beat by 3 in College Station.
Nebraska is a gritty team that has been playing well together.
Texas -6.5 (KU)
---- This one pains me. I don't like to bet for or against the Hawks, but the last month or so I have been capping them very, very accurately (don't mean to sound conceded). This is actually a two unit play for me. And unfortunately, I see this game as them coming back to earth.
In their last 10 games, they have played 6 in The Fieldhouse, where they expectedly thrashed every team they played, except for the 1 point miracle against OU. Their last 4 road games they have beaten TAMU, ISU, Neb., and OSU. In other words, they only played one quality opponent, and they got thrashed for 30+ minutes but came up with a miracle. The other nine games were against the lambs of this mediocre conferance, where the young guys were able to run over lesser talented players.
Playing in Austin is a whole other beast. Aldridge is going to have a big, big game I think. KU's interior defense leaves something to be desired. Giles is their only gifted defender down low, but he doesn't get a lot of playing time because he is always in foul trouble. I expect Self to give him more time in this one to try to slow down Aldridge, and if so... I wish Vegas gave odds on a player fouling out. "The Big Awkward" Sasha Kaun v. Aldridge is a big advantage to UT. Also, I hope KU doesn't expect Wright to guard Tucker, because that is another matchup UT can exploit.
Another factor, although I agree with a lot of you that it is one of the most overrated factor in handicapping, is revenge. I think in this case it has a small amount of weight, because UT's star players will remember January in Lawrence when KU refused to take their foot off the gas petal in a 90-65 demolition. UT won't take these guys lightly (even though it is a mostly new group of guys) and if they get a chance to bury KU, they will.
Another guy on the board said this game opened at UT-8, which Vegas would know would drive the public to KU. I say this a lot, but those guys are not idiots.
Texas Tech +6.5 (@OSU)
--- Yeah, I am drinking the TT kool-aid. Since the start of February they have gotten their act together (i think they have only failed to cover one of those games).
They don't have a lot of talent, but outside of two players, the Pokes don't either. And the Pokes are playing for a coach that took over for his maligned father, while TT is playing for one of the greatest coaches in the history of the game (his show on ESPN is highly recomended... the unintentional comedy is high... and it also shows, to a small degree, why Knight has been so successful over the years... the guy can teach..).
This will be a two unit play for me as well.
I am going to stay away from the two other games. I realized I was leaning towards Mizzou, and then remembered that I still had an amount of alcohol in my system and they were playing in Colorado :scared . So take that mom, I can make rational decisions while inebriated. :talk:
Going to bed now, but I may add some plays later this afternoon, especially if I can wake up to a couple of wins in the early games (fingers crossed).
