2 plays for me....like `em

[gardenweasel]

1)n.ill. -16(-130)....
u.c.f. has been getting bombed every week ....albeit by good competition(wisky,penn st and west va)...then,last week they had a 48 spot hung on them by buffalo....

last week,n.ill got josh haldi back and they scored quickly and often vs akron.....and held charlie frye in check....they actually pulled haldi in the 3rd qtr...

ucf has quite a few injuries and a few suspensions...n.ill.only has cent mich on deck....

they rested back a.j. harris(had a dinged ankle)......the problem for opponents is that their other back garrett wolfe might be better...there`s certainly no drop off with wolfe...sheldon catching passes all over the lot..and he`s one of the most dangerous kick returners in the country.. this team can hurt you in so many ways...

this club has to be the class of the mac...now,with haldi back,they are clicking on all cylinders....


i like it...

actually bought down to 16(-130)....and put a large wager on it....

haldi being out kinda soured n.ill.`s start this year...but,they learned last year that beating bcs clubs doesn`t mean sh-t......you have to win the mac to get that bowl bid....

and that`s what they are shooting for.....

this is not a good cent. fla. club....n.ill. is a very powerful mac club....and should put up a lot of points with a very balanced attack....

laying wood on the road is always a little dicey....but,there is a talent gap here that can`t be denied...and haldi,with a game under his belt,makes for what should be a mismatch...imo...




buying back the wash st play...not sure if swogger is still a bit gimpy...and as bad as oregon has looked,wash st has no ground game....i like wash st...just not enough to actually advocate anyone throwing money on it...

i will add a few more....

u.md... buy down from -11 to -10(-130)...

...revenge....friedgen still grates after ex-school beat him last year...

the situation is much in md`s favor....coming off the bye...while ga tech could be emotionally spent after flubbing the dub in emotional game vs miami,fla at home...

freidgen wants payback here... and he`s very tough at home...

statham is up and down.....but,ga tech back p.j. daniels still questionable..

 

[Irish]

GL Gardenweasle

Haven't really looked at those 2 games but I did like Washington St. Still after looking at Oregon and Washington it will be a no play for me. Good Luck this weekend!

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays GW!


toy

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck -- a lot of solid info, thanks.

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks for the good tidings,my brothas....


adding kansas st-2(-120)...(also md-10(-130) as indicated above)....

 

[AR182]

gw,

i've gotten burned so much by laying large points on the road that i have started to automatically eliminate those plays without even looking at them.

i think n. illinois is the best team in the mac this year primarily because of their balanced attack.

i may have been the one of the few last week to take buffalo vs. c. fla., who cant run the ball.

so on paper n. ill. looks like a strong bet.


i'm with you on the k. state play.



good luck this week & continued success.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

GL with the plays! Careful with the N.Ill play...I know Cent Fla is bad, but they did statistically dominate that Buffalo game last week. Score was a little misleading. Too many points here as I think the Golden Knights will get the cover at home. Maybe finally that tough early schedule will play into affect....

 

[trolln4walii]

Can't believe your post about Northern gw! I just commented about almost the same thing in Blackman's thread. Must be that "great minds" think alike Saw them play in Dekalb last week - they are explosive!! Sheldon is a real treat to watch in person. It's a real tribute to his skills that he gets so open on pass plays, and his returns put an adrenalin rush throughout the stadium. And Wolfe can scoot with the best! All being said I still think it's too many points to give on the road. Hope not, I'd love to see my Huskies throttle another MAC oponent

With you on Wash St. GL this week :thumb:

(BTW - yoiu still haven't responded about your "c" coming up)

 

[gman2]

weasel:

gotta be honest, dont particularly like the niu play. huskies are playing well, but laying all those points 1300 miles away from home scares me. that trip down to orlando is never easy for the 'contiguous' mac teams in illinois/michigan/ohio/indiana. its similar to those wac teams making the long trip to louisiana tech (where, incidentally, fresno failed last week). ucf is a puzzling team. there is talent there, but oleary really needs to establish some discipline on the squad. the prior regime let 'the boys' get out of hand. ucf taking it on the chin from buffalo was alarming. knights are certainly capable of losing by a 45-17 count. but over the years ive seen good ucf teams have inconsistent efforts up north and vice versa. no way in hell would i ever touch central florida; just saying niu could be content to grind out a 27-10 win and keep the cover hanging in the balance.

 

[gardenweasel]

guys....appreciate the honest responses......i don`t expect to get total affirmation on what i post....actually,i`m usually looking for contrary opinion....sometimes it`s easy to get myopic.....sometimes instead of looking at a game objectively,tunnelvision sets in and you end up subconsciously becoming an advocate instead of an analyst....

maybe i need to buy some of the n.ill. play back at +18.5 and make it a medium play instead of a larger play.....

road dog laying over 2 td.s may be a little to tenuous to play large...

i still honestly believe that we haven`t seen the real n.ill. club yet...i had them capped out as a better club this year than last...despite losing turner....

i think haldi is the linchpin...and he was sorely missed.....we`ll see saturday...

..gman,thanks for the mac insight....

guys...much appreciated...

 

[gardenweasel]

one more thing on n.ill......

regarding the iowa st loss...the back-up qb,horvath,threw 4 ints in that game....one was returned for a td.....at least one was on around the n.ill. 25 leading to another iowa st td.....and they blocked a punt for yet another td....

they out first downed them...out gained them ...out t.o.p.`ed them....

i know this was a big phil steele play...he horseshoed this one....n.ill. could easily have won by 14 with haldi in the line-up...of course,maybe horvath figured into the equation for phil....fair enough...

just some context...

of course,cent fla. could blow them out saturday and make me look totally foolish....lol....


btw...i`m buying back my wash st play....the more i look,the better some other games look to me....

g.l. guys..

 

[gardenweasel]

i`ve been swayed by some solid cappers here and elsewhere to grab michigan -3(-120) and the `cuse+20(-120)......i didn`t do the work...but the arguments were compelling,imo....

i was this close to pulling the trigger on wake+5......want to.....just can`t right now....don`t want to play to many games....

g.l.,all.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Those plays may or may not be good, but buying those lines down to me is ludicrous. You are willing to lay 16 points but feel the need to buy a half or a full point? If so the play isnt worth playing. And laying the extra lumber just makes it even tougher to be in the black. Heck I used to think that buying up to 3 made sense until I realized that only about 6% of games land on it. There just isnt sufficient value in doing this.

 

[gardenweasel]

i hear you.....your argument is valid....this subject has been broached before....

it`s what i do...i`ve been fortunate this year...it`s saved me in a few ballgames....

is it sound over the long haul?....maybe not....most likely not...

thanks for the concern.....

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Like the N Ill play alot. since the original garden weasel has 3 prongs, suggest you give us 3 equally strong plays! Also remember its difficult and expensive to change prongs.

 

[gardenweasel]

domy....i wasn`t aware of the "prong" facts......i took this idiotic moniker...i should know...lol

thanks for the edification....

g.l. this weekend.

 

[gardenweasel]

bump the thread when you win....and when you lose...

lost last week....went 5-5...but bought some cushion and with the cushion and regular juice i lost a few quid....

this week was 2-3.....and a little extra juice... lost with maryland...(was never in the game)....

lost with k.st....

....and those fvckin` n.ill. huskies....laying 16...up 21-0 at the half....and these dogs laid down and died vs an inferior team in the 2nd half....almost lost outright.....should have lost.....

that one hurt...not the coin...the manner in which this team laid down....vs a team that was beaten by buffalo last week by 28.....

i was advised that this one was dicey...and i bought a little back at 18.5....still,i believe there`s an enormous talent gap between these two......and am a little stunned at the 2nd half collapse...

would have loved to have heard o`leary`s halftime speech....must have been a doozy....

pushed with michigan -3....



hit the under 27.5 first half in uva/ clemson

and the `cuse thanks to marra.....thanks...

3 very nice winning weeks to start the season....and the last 2 were losers...not horrible weeks...around .500 ...but not winning weeks....

still up...but it`s time to pull back a bit while we`re still in the black.....

hope everyone else did a little better than i did....

g.l. tomorrow...

 

[gman2]

weasel:

weird week in the mac. you were on the wrong end of one of the two collapses. no doubt nillinois was a tough L to take. can you imagine those who had kent? up outright 20-17 at half and getting 19.5. lose 47-27. only thing i can offer on the niu game was that their conservativeness bit them in the ass. thats the one reason why i dont think theyre able to win the mac championship. when they get that run game going, theyre tough to stop. but unlike bgsu and toledo, once they get that lead, theyre content to pound the ball and punt, pound the ball and punt and use the clock in their favor. bg and toledo have no shame in attacking until the final seconds are off the clock. bottom line is theres still no excuse for niu to fold like that. they put ucf in an early hole and normally that just about means curtains for inferior mac teams who dont have a lot of firepower. never would have guessed theyd score 28 in the 2h.

 

[gardenweasel]

yeah,g.........it`s a little tough to swallow...but it sounds like it went down just like you said....

hey,i`ve taken worse losses.....i really thought this was a mismatch......i was right....for a half...lol

i saw you lost a toughie with c.mich......the stats should have added up to a cover.....in theory,you had it pegged....so many variables....you can`t control the breaks...

what`re you gonna do?...

hitch `em up and get `em next week....

g.l. tomorrow,bud...