20 questions for 2006

[AU2001]

I thought this was a good read for college football fans to help tide us over until next season. You can also read this on foxsports. It is quite long, so be prepared...


The parades are over in Austin. The tears have dried in Los Angeles. National signing day has come and gone and spring practices have officially started. It's time to put the 2005 season behind us and look forward to next season. We take a good hard look at the 2006 season by answering 20 important questions.

20. What's the one sure thing going into 2006?
It's going to flat-out stink compared to 2005. I'm a college football boy and enjoy watching even the lowliest of Sun Belt games, but even I can't Dick Vitale-promote this upcoming season into anything more than a major downer considering everything that happened last year. If 2005 wasn't the greatest year in college football history, it was a close second to a season that I couldn't find in any research.
We had a great bowl season with four fantastic BCS games topped off by a national title game that not only lived up to the unattainable hype, it blew past it. We had a resurgence of Notre Dame, Alabama and Penn State and saw JoePa and Bobby Bowden square off in a coaching matchup for the ages. We had all-timer players like Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and Vince Young playing at a high level all season long. We had Texas-Ohio State and USC-Notre Dame, which each were among the better regular season games of all-time. Come up with any scenario to beat last year. It can't be done because you can't come up with the wire-to-wire momentum started from the moment Leinart said he was coming back for his senior year.

19. Fine, so this year is Blink 182 coming on after Nirvana. Is there anything to get really excited about?
Of course. First of all, the field is wide freakin' open. You name the halfway decent BCS league team and it has a realistic hope of catching lightning in a bottle and finishing up in the BCS Championship Game (more on that later). Texas is probably the nation's top team, but it has a ten-mile-wide hole to fill at quarterback (much more on that later). Ohio State, USC, Florida, Georgia, West Virginia and any other good team you can name has issues, which is a good thing if you're hoping for someone to come up with a 2003 LSU-like out-of-left-field run to a national title. In other words, there doesn't appear to be one absolute killer like there was last year with USC.

Second, the Heisman race should be a blast. If Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Notre Dame's Brady Quinn aren't the front-runners, than it might be Ohio State's Troy Smith, but he's not going to win it. Let's just stop that talk right now (he simply won't have the numbers to win, but that doesn't mean he can't be a finalist). That means this could be one of those crazy seasons like 2002 when Carson Palmer, Brad Banks, Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee came from nowhere to battle for the top individual prize.

Third, there are a lot of really, really good non-conference games like ...

18. 25 non-conference games to get really, really excited about are ...
Along with the always great conference rivalry games, there appear to be more good non-conference games than ever. If these don't give you a few special feelings, you're reading the wrong publication.
25. Oregon State at Boise State, Sept. 9
24. Oregon at Fresno State, Sept. 9
23. Minnesota at California, Sept. 9
22. Marshall at West Virginia, Sept. 2
21. Utah at UCLA, Sept. 2
20. Notre Dame at Georgia Tech, Sept. 2
19. Washington State at Auburn, Sept. 2
18. Maryland at West Virginia, Sept. 14
17. Louisville at Kansas State, Sept. 23
16. Iowa State at Iowa, Sept. 16
15. Georgia Tech at Georgia, Nov. 25
14. Arizona State at Colorado, Sept. 16
13. South Carolina at Clemson, Nov. 25
12. Colorado at Georgia, Sept. 23
11. California at Tennessee, Sept. 2
10. USC at Arkansas, Sept. 2
9. UCLA at Notre Dame, Oct. 21
8. Oklahoma at Oregon, Sept. 16
7. Miami at Louisville, Sept. 16
6. Michigan at Notre Dame, Sept. 16
5. Florida at Florida State, Nov. 25
4. Nebraska at USC, Sept. 16
3. Penn State at Notre Dame, Sept. 9
2. Notre Dame at USC, Nov. 25
1. Ohio State at Texas, Sept. 9


17. What BCS changes do we have to deal with this year?
There are three big ones, and they're all positives if you're a fan of the non-BCS league teams and if you're hoping beyond all reasonable hope for a playoff before your time runs out.

1. FOX is taking over all BCS games other than the Rose Bowl, which ABC will hang on to until 2014.
2. FOX also gets the rights to the fifth BCS bowl game which will be the national title game played in Arizona this year. The national title game will rotate among the four traditional sites with a second bowl added. For example, the 2010 Rose Bowl will be played like normal, and then there will be a second game for the national championship played later in Pasadena. This extra game isn't a playoff, but it does potentially make for an easy transition to being a playoff game after the bowls. But that's for way down the line.
3. Like before, the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC will get an automatic spot in the BCS. Starting this year, one champion from one of the other leagues (Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt or WAC) will get an automatic spot if it's ranked among the top 12 teams in the final BCS standings or is ranked among the top 16 teams in the final BCS standings and ranked higher than the champion of one of the BCS conference champions. That means that TCU would've been in the BCS last year.

16. Considering the new changes, which "mid-major" will likely be in the BCS?
Remember, it's not automatic for a non-BCS conference school to get in, but it's more likely to happen on a regular basis. TCU has a very nice team returning and has a great chance to finish in the top 12 of the final BCS rankings if it wins the Mountain West title again and beats Texas Tech early on. BYU and Utah are other strong possibilities from the Mountain West. The Cougars are going to Arizona, play 2005 Conference USA champion Tulsa, and go to Boston College, while the Utes have a chance to make a national splash at UCLA in the season opener. Boise State has a better chance than Fresno State out of the WAC since the Broncos have two tough non-conference games against Oregon State and at Wyoming. The Bulldogs have to play Oregon, at Washington, Colorado State and at LSU. No one from the MAC appears to be BCS worthy, but that can change in a big hurry if RB Garrett Wolfe and Northern Illinois can win at Ohio State and at Iowa. Conference USA doesn't appear to have a BCS-caliber team, and forget about anyone from the Sun Belt.

 

[AU2001]

15. Yeah, a non-automatic BCS conference team might make the big show, but are the "mid-majors" going to be any better than last year?
Not really. Conference USA still hasn't recovered from the loss of Louisville, TCU, Cincinnati and South Florida, but the league should continue to be competitive. East Carolina, Marshall and SMU should be better than last year, and UTEP, UCF, Houston, Tulsa, Southern Miss and Memphis should be at least as good as they were in 2005. However, the league, as a whole, still isn't close to the big six.

The Sun Belt had the best race of any league last year, but it'll be one of the shockers of the season if there's a win against a BCS league team. The MAC doesn't have a killer team, but Northern Illinois, Miami, and Toledo won't roll over and die in the better non-conference games. The WAC might be pushing Conference USA, at least as far as the top teams, for national respect with Hawaii's offense sure to be scary-good again, Nevada as strong as it was last year, and Boise State and Fresno State being like they normally are. The Mountain West is easily the seventh best conference in college football and if there's going to be a BCS team from the non-BCS conferences, it'll likely come from here. However, the league has to make more statements like Utah made against Georgia Tech and TCU made against Oklahoma. Even with the good mid-major teams here and there, the overall division between the top six leagues and the other five appears to be widening.

14. Which conference will be the best in 2006?
11. Sun Belt - It'll once again be one of college football's most interesting races with all eight teams having a shot. 2005 newcomers FIU and Florida Atlantic should be better, while North Texas will find its groove again after struggling with its offense last year.
The best team should be ... UL Lafayette
10. MAC - The star power isn't there with the loss of Bowling Green QB Omar Jacobs and Toledo QB Bruce Gradkowski, but NIU's Garrett Wolfe will be among the nation's rushing leaders. The division races should be fun with Ball State and Western Michigan sure to challenge NIU and Toledo in the West and Ohio sure to be better in the East.
The best team should be ... Northern Illinois
9. WAC - It's a top-heavy league with Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada good enough to hang around with anyone in America, but the bottom is really bad. Even so, New Mexico State and Utah State can't be worse while San Jose State has the potential to be much better.
The best team should be ... Nevada
8. Conference USA - This is potentially the most even league in the country. Remember that UCF was coming off a winless season and still came this close to winning the title. If that can happen, then SMU and Tulane should have a ray of hope. Fine, so Rice won't pull a UCF, but the other 11 teams should wage a fierce war with a few upsets over BCS teams sure to happen.
The best team should be ... UCF
7. Mountain West - All talk of being better than the Big East should be put to rest after this year, but this is still a solid league with TCU, Utah and BYU as good as any mid-level BCS conference team and New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State and Wyoming sure to be competitive. Air Force and UNLV should be better.
The best team should be ... TCU
6. Big East - All Big East bashing was well warranted last year; the league, as a whole, was awful. While the conference is still on an island ranking far behind the other five BCSers and comfortably ahead of the Mountain West, it should be better. Cincinnati and Syracuse can't be worse, Pitt and UConn will rebound, Rutgers and South Florida should be at least as good as last year, and Louisville and West Virginia should be national title contenders.
The best team should be ... West Virginia
5. Big 12 - Texas should be the preseason No. 1 and Oklahoma is close to being Oklahoma again, but there's still too much mediocrity. Nebraska is coming off a huge bowl win against Michigan and Missouri had a nice victory over South Carolina, but is the North really any better? Oklahoma State and Texas A&M should be more completive and Texas Tech is becoming more of a player, but this should be the fifth best league in the pecking order.
The best team should be ... Texas
4. Big Ten - The conference should take a step back this year. Everyone seems to be blowing off the loss of the stars in Ohio State's defensive back seven, Michigan might really be that mediocre, Penn State isn't going to be the same without Michael Robinson, and what you saw out of Iowa last year is what you'll get this year. You know what you'll get out of Minnesota, Wisconsin will overachieve before getting blasted by a good team, and Northwestern will be worse without Brett Basanez. On the plus side, Purdue and Michigan State will be better.
The best team should be ... Ohio State
3. ACC - I've been the Grand Marshal of the ACC-is-top-to-bottom strongest parade, but not anymore. Is Miami down, or is it a case of having problems playing in a good conference? I really like Florida State this year, but is this going to be the year the ship completely turns back around? The rest of the league (cough, Virginia Tech, cough) is way too flaky. While Boston College, Clemson, Maryland, NC State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia are all good, are any of them great? Clemson might be and Georgia Tech has potential, but the league is third ... for now.
The best team should be ... Florida State
2. Pac-10 - It's far better than you think. USC might not be the juggernaut of the past few years, but it's not going to fall far. Cal should be incredible, Arizona State's offense will be unstoppable, Washington State should be one of the year's surprise teams, and UCLA and Oregon should be bowling. Arizona and Stanford will be much better, and Washington isn't going to get any worse.
The best team should be ... USC
1. SEC - Vanderbilt showed last year that it can be competitive and Mississippi State should have a killer defense. Ole Miss will be better in Ed Orgeron's second year, and Kentucky will be decent, even if the record doesn't show it. Everyone else is really, really good. Even though Georgia should take a step back, the league is amazing with Florida, LSU and Auburn national title contenders and Alabama, Arkansas and South Carolina good enough to beat anyone in the league. Tennessee should be one of the year's top turnaround teams.
The best team should be ... Florida

 

[AU2001]

13. What teams are likely to take a tumble this year?
Penn State. The Nittany Lions are coming off an incredible 11-1 season and should be strong again, but there's a fine line between a one-loss, BCS performance and being a four-loss Big Ten also ran. That fine line is Michael Robinson, who never got the respect he deserved last year as the Big Ten's most valuable player (he had a stunningly tough time getting All-Big Ten votes). His leadership and clutch play will be sorely missed. Can Anthony Morelli finally play up to the hype he had coming in as a hot-shot recruit? He hasn't shown anything so far, but he has to be a star this spring and show that he can use all the good young weapons around him. Remember, Robinson didn't exactly set the world on fire as a quarterback until 2005, so it's not a stretch to think Morelli can make the same jump. It also helps that the overall talent level is back up to snuff in Happy Valley, but it's tough to maintain such a high level record-wise in a conference like the Big Ten.

Remember, Penn State had to battle to beat Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan State and Florida State. A big play the other way in each of those games and the final record would've been much different. To be fair, Penn State created its own breaks, but teams rarely win all of the close ones (Michigan finish aside) two years in a row. Road trips to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Minnesota, Purdue (who'll make up for last year, more on that in a moment), and Wisconsin should mean at least two losses, if not three. Fortunately, the rest of the slate isn't that bad with the only home games to break a sweat over coming against Michigan and Michigan State.


Georgia would be due for a bit of a fall with a rough loss of personnel for what seems like the 26th year in a row, but the schedule is too forgiving with a joke of a home slate and the tough road games at South Carolina and Auburn along with the neutral site battle with Florida. UCLA will almost definitely slip after a 10-2 season with the loss of RB Maurice Drew, QB Drew Olson, to go along with road trips to Oregon, Notre Dame, Cal and Arizona State to go along with tough home games against Utah and USC.


On a much smaller scale, Arkansas State will have a nasty time trying to win a second straight Sun Belt title. A "home" game against Oklahoma State to be played in Little Rock kicks off a string of eight road games in ten dates including conference battles with UL Lafayette and Troy.


12. Which teams are likely to bounce back?
Washington State. It's hard to lose a runner like Jerome Harrison and hope to be better, but the return of WR Jason Hill for his senior year ensures the Cougars will have one of the Pac 10's most fearsome passing attacks. With five of their seven losses coming by four points or fewer (a total of 17 points against Stanford, UCLA, Cal, Arizona State and Oregon), the Cougars are way due to be on the right side of a few wins this year. The key will be to not get down after a likely opening day loss at Auburn and a late September home date with USC. The rest of the schedule is nice enough to hope for an 8-4 season.

Michigan State and Purdue, two of 2005's bigger disappointments, will be players again. MSU's Drew Stanton should be among the nation's best quarterbacks and has a schedule just favorable enough to hope for a big turnaround with Notre Dame and Ohio State coming to East Lansing and road trips to Pitt, Northwestern and Indiana to go along with the rough dates at Michigan and Penn State. For the second year in a row Purdue doesn't play Michigan or Ohio State, and starts off its schedule at home against Indiana State, Miami University, Ball State and Minnesota. Five of the following seven are on the road, but two of those games are against Northwestern and Illinois before closing out against Indiana and at Hawaii.

The biggest bounce-back team of 2006 should be Tennessee after a stunning 5-6 campaign. The Vols still have as much talent and athleticism as anyone in the country, and now it has David Cutcliffe coaching the offense; things can't be any worse as long as Erik Ainge plays like a seasoned quarterback. The opening four games aren't breathers playing Cal, Air Force, Florida and Marshall, but if they can get off to a 4-0 start before going to Memphis and Georgia, the confidence and swagger will be back. However, the potential is there for another disaster considering the great teams on the slate. Cal, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, LSU, and Arkansas will all spend time in the top 25, if not the top 15.

11. The coaches who have to win this year are ...
Call it a hot seat, a make-or-break year, or anything else you'd like to, but there might not be a 2007 for these ten coaches if they don't have big seasons. Don't expect too many firings since most of the usual bottom-feeders have made recent coaching changes.
10. Houston Nutt, Arkansas
After eight years at Arkansas, Nutt needs to coming up with his first winning season since 2003 or he might not get a chance to let franchise recruit Mitch Mustain turn the program around.
9. Chuck Amato, NC State
Few are able to pull out the job-saving win better than Amato, but he'll have work to do with all the future NFL stars leaving his defense.
8. John Bunting, North Carolina
He has done a tremendous job considering the schedules his team has had to deal with, but there has been only one bowl game in the last four years.
7. Greg Robinson, Syracuse
He has only been there one year, but another season like last year's 1-10 disaster could start talk of a quick hook.
6. Rich Brooks, Kentucky
Yes, he's still there. Seven wins over D-I teams in three years appears to be acceptable. The best win during the Brooks regime came against Vanderbilt last year. The other eight wins were against Idaho State and Murray State (both D-IAAers), Indiana, Ohio, and Mississippi State (who all went 2-10 in 2003), Indiana (3-8 in 2004), Vanderbilt (2-9 in 2004), and Mississippi State (3-8 last year).
5. Fisher DeBerry, Air Force
All the religious and racial controversies would blow over easier if DeBerry could come up with his first winning season in three years.
4. Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M
Only one winning season in the last three has many Aggie fans still wondering what was so bad about R.C. Slocum.
3. Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee
Not winning the SEC title puts coaches on the hot seat in Knoxville. Going 5-6 makes the buns burn.
2. Lloyd Carr, Michigan
Not being in the national title race since 1997 - bad. Struggling in the non-conference games, especially on the road - really bad. Losing to Ohio State four times in the last five years - nuclear.
1. Larry Coker, Miami (FL)
Not playing for national title at Da You is cause enough for putting a coach on the hot seat, but not winning conference titles is cause for a fire alarm. You can only blame the assistant coaches once.

 

[AU2001]

10. The biggest new overall changes to the game this year are ...
Uniform instant replay and a 12-game schedule. All the extra game means is a Cupcake U. or two sprinkled throughout the schedules. The smart big-time teams are using the extra revenue lamb-for-the-slaughter home game to start the year with a tune-up for the important battles ahead. Some are using it as a breather late in the year. On the plus side, the 12-game slate means all the Pac 10 teams play each other so there'll be a true conference champion, unlike the unfair Big Ten where teams like Purdue don't play Ohio State or Michigan, and without the gimmicky championship money grubbing games like several other leagues have.

Instant replay will generate the biggest buzz throughout 2006. Outside of the pathologically grouchy who enjoy missed calls and controversy, no one can fault the college version of instant replay when compared to the bizarre and unfair pro version.

Here's the poop. Instant replay will be like normal with a man in a replay booth looking at every play. He'll signal down to the referee when a play should be reviewed upstairs, and everything will function like before. The problem last year was when it took too long for the process to occur and a play couldn't get reviewed in time. That meant coaches sometimes had to burn a time out just to buy more time, and that, everyone could agree, wasn't fair. To change it, the NCAA has allowed coaches one challenge per game by calling a time out. If the play isn't overturned, then the team loses a timeout and there aren't any more challenges. Fine.


Here's where it gets tricky. If a play is challenged and gets overturned, the team doesn't lose a time out and doesn't lose its challenge. Let it ride. Theoretically, a coach can challenge 743 times a game as long as he's always right, however, he can't challenge if he doesn't have any timeouts left. Technically, that's fine since bad calls should get overturned. Now for the real kicker; the coaches will be flying blind. There won't be monitors in the coaches booth, so unlike the NFL when an assistant upstairs yells at the head coach to challenge a call, a head coach will have to hope that he's right. Expect this to get very, very interesting as the season goes on.


And finally, a rule change that will fly under the radar but will make a big impact involves the kicking game. The height of the kicking tee has been reduced to one inch meaning more big returns and better overall field position for the return teams. Expect this to play a really big role late in games when a team needs to go on a final scoring drive.


9. Everyone will be complaining about ...
The BCS. Again. With the new 12-game schedule, and with some playing 13 games thanks to conference championships, it'll be harder and harder for teams to stay healthy through the long season and there are bound to be more slip ups. No one appears to have a dominant team going into the season, and no one has a sure-thing schedule that assures 12-0. Of course, someone could go unbeaten, but who? Finding two teams at this point in the off-season is next to impossible.


We all got a nice break in 2005 with the cut-and-dry Texas vs. USC national title, but the odds are solid that we'll all have to waste our time comparing apples to oranges, SEC to Pac 10, Big 12 to Big Ten, and/or some other configuration of things before some deserving team is out of the national title game. We're also overdue for a mega-blowup with five deserving one-loss teams jockeying for a spot in the national title.


Also, get ready for a year of ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC fans banding together to complain about the Big East. West Virginia achieved a major measure of respect with the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, but there's still a general feeling by SEC fans that the Bulldogs simply took the game too lightly and that the Mountaineers would have never survived an SEC schedule. Just wait until this year.


West Virginia has a three game season hosting Maryland before road games later on against Louisville and Pitt. Louisville has a very respectable home game against Miami and a trip to Kansas State along with a road date with Pitt and the showdown with West Virginia. What happens if Louisville or West Virginia goes 12-0 and, for example, Texas, Ohio State, USC, Florida State and Florida all have one loss? We're talking a hypothetical situation here, but be prepared for a knock down, drag out conference debate. However ...

8. Everyone will be in love with ...
West Virginia. Even with the three other scintillating BCS games and the all-timer Rose Bowl, a lot of the buzz after the bowl season was about West Virginia and their unbelievable young talents QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton. Now the pressure will really be on being tagged as this year's version of the "it" team. However, hyped teams hardly ever play like everyone's darling.


2005's hot team, Wyoming, crashed and burned and 2004's next-big-thing, West Virginia, fell off the map after a decent start. Certainly you remember the fashionable team going into 2003, Auburn, with magazine covers and a preseason number one ranking before cranking out an 8-5 season. Michigan State, with Charles Rogers and Jeff Smoker, was supposed to shine in 2002 and then came up with a 4-8 campaign. How about Sports Illustrated's Oregon State team going into 2001? 5-6.

The 2006 Mountaineers should be rock-solid, but can they handle having the bull's-eye on their back? Can they handle the pressure of being ranked in the preseason top five by some, and how will they deal with the pressure of being picked to play in the national title game by others? The combination of above-average overall talent, sensational coaching and a powder-puff schedule will generate all the hype the program can handle.

7. Which players, coaches and programs have to finally start producing?
While not necessarily on a hot seat, these players, coaches and programs have to start coming through after a few years of hype. 2006 had better be big for these ten, or 2007 might not be a lot of fun.
10. Ralph Friedgen and Maryland
He set the bar too high winning 31 games in his first three years. Two straight 5-6 seasons doesn't mean he'll get fired with another down year, but it'll get Terp fans rumbling.
9. Fresno State
To paraphrase a classic line from GoodFellas, "Screw you, pay me." For all the bluster and big performances from Fresno State over the last few years, it still can't seem to win the WAC. After last year's epic choke job, Pat Hill's bunch needs to finally get over the hump.
8. San Diego State RB Lynell Hamilton
He has all the talent to be a next-level runner, but he has to get through a season healthy. If he can last for a full 12 games, he'll be in the mix for Mountain West Player of the Year honors.
7. John L. Smith and Michigan State
Three signs that things aren't working out as planned. 1) You hired the guy from another team at halftime of a bowl game. Bad karma is kicking in. 2) The former team (Louisville) is better than the current one. 3) Two straight losing seasons.
6. Mike Stoops and Arizona
After two straight 3-8 seasons and only four wins over D-I teams, it's time for the Stoops era to start coming up with victories, or at least be more competitive. This is now his team.
5. Sylvester Croom and Mississippi State
Putting aside the social significance of Croom's hiring, he needs to start putting some wins on the board after only five victories against D-I teams in two years. The offense simply can't be so awful for a third straight year.
4. FOX
Fox did a great job with the Cotton Bowl over the last few years, so there's hope that it'll handle the BCS and national title game without a problem. However, considering the network still believes Tim McCarver should be a part of anything related to the World Series, there's just cause for die-hard college fans to be a little bit concerned. (Two words: Steve Stone. Look into it.)
3. Florida QB Chris Leak
Leak will be done with his eligibility by next year and Tim Tebow will take over, so this is the final chance to win an SEC title and be more than just the transition quarterback from the Spurrier era what Gators fans hope are the new glory days.
2. Former NFL coaches - Dave Wannstedt, Al Groh, Chan Gailey
They can't all be Pete Carroll. The jury is still out on Wannstedt, but another losing season at Pitt will mean 2007 will be a make or break year. Groh and Gailey have done good jobs, but the haven't been able to make much noise when it comes to ACC title races.
1. Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker
1,773 rushing yards, 575 receiving yards and 13 total touchdowns aren't exactly what the 'Noles were hoping for from, arguably, the nation's top recruit in 2002. Blame the coaching staff for not using Booker's blinding speed correctly and blame the problems on the offensive line over the last few years. In any event, he likely would've been a second round draft pick had he come out early, and now he has to be more of a factor in the Seminole offense.

 

[AU2001]

6. The unknown players you'll know about by the end of 2006 are ...
10. Keynovis Bouie, LB FIU
While he's a safety-sized 217 pounds, Bouie is a fierce tackler with great speed to the ball. In only nine games last year he made 118 tackles with 18 stops against MTSU, 18 against Troy and 19 against UL Monroe. He also made 14 against Kansas State.
9. Chase Daniel, QB Missouri
You don't replace Brad Smith, but Daniel is a solid all-around quarterback who shouldn't have a problem keeping the Tiger offense going. He completed 38 of 66 passes last year for 347 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions, and he ran for 58 yards and a score.
8. Amir Pinnix, RB Minnesota ...
... or Gary Russell. With Laurence Maroney bolting early for the NFL, the plum job of being the featured ball-carrier for Minnesota was supposed to go to Russell after rushing for 1,130 yards and 18 touchdowns. But the potential junior had problems with his eligibility and withdrew for school. He can re-enroll in the fall once his grades get back up, but in the meantime, it'll be up to the quicker Pinnix to be the main man until someone else emerges. The junior-to-be ran for 467 yards and a touchdown last year with a 206-yard day against Michigan State.
7. Rafael Little, RB Kentucky
The SEC's best all-purpose back in 2005 was Auburn's Kenny Irons, right? Nope. Darren McFadden of Arkansas? How about Alabama's Ken Darby or Mississippi State's Jerious Norwood? Not even close. Kentucky's Rafael Little ran for 1,045 yards, caught 449 yards worth of passes, returned 355 yards worth of punts and 133 yards of kickoffs. He had 124 rushing yards, 122 receiving yards and four touchdowns against Auburn and tore off 198 yards and three scores, along with 86 receiving yards, against Vanderbilt.
6. Micah Andrews, RB Wake Forest
Chris Barclay ran for over 4,000 yards with 40 touchdowns in his Wake Forest career, but Andrews will step in and be just as productive. Andrew ripped off 254 yards in the opener against Vanderbilt and 142 against East Carolina, but was used sparingly the rest of the way. He'll be one of the ACC's leading rushers.
5. Allan Evridge, QB Kansas State
Thrown to the wolves midway through his freshman year, Evridge was sensational at times highlighted by a 357-yard, three touchdown passing day against Texas A&M. He showed off his running skills with a 138-yard, two touchdown day in the 27-25 loss to Nebraska. He'll be the main focus of the Ron Prince offense early on.
4. Josh Williams, LB Arkansas State
It's not a stretch to say the nation's best linebacker might be in the Sun Belt. Williams was a terror as a freshman with 110 tackles, but was booted off the team last summer. He's being allowed to walk on and appears ready to take full advantage of the second chance. Word is he's working out like a madman and will be even better.
3. Graham Harrell, QB Texas Tech
If you're the starting quarterback for Texas Tech, you'll put up huge numbers. Harrell was just this close to being the starter in 2005, but he broke his leg in summer practice. Now he's expected to be the triggerman for the attack for the next few years, or at least until top recruit Taylor Potts is ready.
2. Steve Levy, QB California ...
... or Nate Longshore or Joe Ayoob or Kyle Reed. Longshore was the 2005 opening day starter until he broke his leg. Ayoob was way too inconsistent after taking over the job, and Levy stepped in and was fantastic over the final three games completing 30 of 45 passes for 387 yards and three touchdowns and an interception in wins over Stanford and BYU along with mop-up time against USC.
1. Chauncey Washington & Desmond Reed, RB USC
Don't shed any tears for USC over the loss of Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Washington has first round talent, but he has to keep the academic side of things straightened out. Reed is a poor man's Bush, but he has to get healthy. If those two don't work out, incoming freshmen Emmanuel Moody, C.J. Gable and Stafon Johnson will keep the ground game going.
5. The pain in the butt in each conference race will be ...
ACC - North Carolina
If the quarterback situation stabilizes early on and there's a home upset or two over Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, John Bunting's crew has the talent to be a thorn in the side of the Coastal Division powers.
Big East - Connecticut
Call 2005 a transition season with an injury to starting QB Matt Bonislawski and preseason problems with the defense keeping the Huskies from getting back to a bowl. That'll change this year as they could ruin West Virginia's dream season in Storrs on October 20th in a nationally televised game.
Big Ten - Purdue
All together now ... there's no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule. Again. The Big Ten road games are at Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan State and Illinois. Winning three of four is very doable, while winning all three tough Big Ten home games against Minnesota, Wisconsin and Penn State is possible.
Big 12 - Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy's program is at least a year away from being a player in the Big 12 South, and more likely two or three after his fantastic 2006 recruiting class has time to mature. Even so, his Cowboys showed some heart last year beating Texas Tech and scaring Texas for a half. Texas A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma have to go to Stillwater.
Conference USA - East Carolina
If Skip Holtz's team could've just played a little bit of defense, it would've finished with a winning season. The offense should be one of the best in Conference USA making up for more defensive deficiencies. It'll all come down to a three week span against East favorites Southern Miss, UCF and Marshall.
MAC - Ball State
The Cardinals weren't all that bad last year once they got through with their suspensions. QB Joey Lynch might be the MAC's best quarterback good enough make BSU a deep sleeper in the West.
Mountain West - San Diego State
For the 19th straight year, San Diego State is supposed to turn a corner. That might actually happen in Chuck Long's first year at the helm as he gets to take advantage of some great recruiting classes from the past regime and star RB Lynell Hamilton.
Pac-10 - Stanford
Walt Harris had his down moments in his first season on The Farm highlighted by a loss to UC Davis, but there were good battles in losses to UCLA and Notre Dame along with wins over Washington State, Arizona State and Oregon State. Everyone in the Pac 10 will be taking the Cardinal lightly, but the Harris offense is good enough to pull off a few shockers.
SEC - Arkansas
With an opening day game against USC and SEC home dates against Alabama, Tennessee and LSU, Houston Nutt's club should make plenty of noise in the West. The SEC road slate isn't horrible thanks to trips to Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.
Sun Belt - FIU
The Golden Panthers won four of their final five games in 2005 and should be even better this year. Defending Sun Belt champion Arkansas State has to come to Miami, as does UL Monroe and UL Lafayette. FIU's final four games, all against Sun Belt teams, are at home.
WAC - San Jose State
Don't expect miracles in Dick Tomey's second season, but the Spartans should be even more competitive than last year when they finished the season with a two game winning streak. 5-5 speedster Yonus Davis is a nice running back to build around.

 

[AU2001]

4. Who are some of the already known players who'll go nuclear in 2006?
Rhett Bomar, QB Oklahoma
Dogged after struggling early and without Adrian Peterson to count on over a stretch, Bomar got better as the year went on against a nasty schedule. He's a superior all-around talent who should grow into his prep hype this year.
John David Booty, QB USC
Or Mark Sanchez, but more on that in a moment. It was Booty as a 17-year-old true freshman who was supposed to take over for Carson Palmer, and then Matt Leinart turned into a legend. Booty has first-round NFL skills along with the nation's best receiving corps to throw to.
Alley Broussard, RB LSU
The star of the LSU backfield late in the 2004 season, Broussard missed all of last year with a knee injury. He won't be back at 100% for spring ball, but he should be the focal point of the tremendous Tiger offense by opening day.
Colt Brennan, QB Hawaii and Davone Bess, WR Hawaii
When it comes to Brennan, think Timmy Chang with talent. He threw for 4,301 yards and 35 touchdowns in his first year, along with showing off some good mobility, and now he has a more experienced receiving corps to work with. Head coach June Jones has said Bess, a true sophomore going into this year, is the best receiver he has ever been around. Bess caught 89 passes for 1,124 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Jamaal Charles, RB Texas
Overshadowed by Vince Young, Charles should be the star of the nation's top team after an 878-yard, 13 total touchdown season. While all the other great Longhorn backs could dip into the numbers, 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns won't be out of reach.
Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
He'll be a top 15 pick in 2007. Johnson finally started to use his size and strength last year catching 54 passes for 888 yards and six touchdowns, and now he should make a huge jump in overall production with QB Reggie Ball experienced enough to be more accurate.
Sam Keller or Rudy Carpenter, QB Arizona State
Until he got hurt, it could've been argued that Keller was the Pac 10's best quarterback, throwing for 2,165 yards and 20 touchdowns, along with nine interceptions, in just over seven games. Carpenter came in and finished as the nation's most efficient passer throwing for 2,273 yards with 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions while completing 68% of his passes. If one of the quarterbacks plays the entire year, 4,500 yards and 40 touchdown passes are possible.
Marshawn Lynch, RB California
Dinged up for most of the year, Lynch still finished with 1,246 yards and ten touchdowns, capped off by a 194-yard, three score day against BYU. Justin Forsett will certainly be a factor in the Cal ground game, but Lynch might pull a J.J. Arrington and could hit 2,000 yards if he can stay healthy.
Sidney Rice, WR South Carolina
Rice became unstoppable with six 100-yard days in the final seven games highlighted by a 12-catch, 191-yard, one touchdown day against Missouri. QB Blake Mitchell will have a year of experience under his belt and will be even better at getting his star target the ball.
Zac Taylor, QB Nebraska
The light bulb went on as last year went on, and now Taylor should blossom in his second year as the starter. He has good receivers to work with like Nate Swift and Terrence Nunn, so a 3,000-yard, 25 touchdown season has to be expected.
Drew Weatherford, QB Florida State
Did anyone else realize that Weatherford was hung out to dry as a freshman? With no running game, a depleted offensive line and lousy play-calling from the coaching staff, Weatherford still led the 'Noles to the ACC title throwing for 3,208 yards and 18 touchdowns. If he can cut down on his 18 interceptions, and develop more of a rapport with top target Greg Carr, Weatherford should be in the hunt for ACC Player of the Year honors.

3. Ten things to watch for this spring
10. Bowling Green QB Anthony Turner
Is Turner ready? He struggled when Omar Jacobs was knocked out for a stretch last year, and now he has grow into the type of high-octane passer to keep the Falcon offense going. Anthony Glaud and Tyler Sheehan are big recruits who fit the mold, so Turner has to show this spring that the job is his. His development is one of the big keys to the MAC race.
9. Where are the Wisconsin running backs?
New running back coach John Settle has a lot of work to do. Brian Calhoun took off a year early for the NFL, Booker Stanley was kicked off the team and feature back-in-waiting P.J. Hill was also booted. Top recruit Lance Smith will eventually be the new Badger star, but for now, junior Dywon Rowan, who packs a load at 240 pounds, and sophomore Jamil Walker.
8. The California quarterback race
Jeff Tedford is hoarding quarterbacks with Steve Levy, Nate Longshore, Joe Ayoob and Kyle Reed all ready to get an equal shot at winning the starting gig. The winner will be keeping the seat warm until Kevin Riley matures next year. Whoever takes over the starting job will be in for a monster year.
7. The LSU quarterback race
JaMarcus Russell won't be 100% this spring as he's still recovering from a shoulder injury. Matt Flynn was the team's best quarterback last spring and starred late last year, but he'll have to be perfect to be the opening day starter. Ryan Perrilloux is way, way too good to be happy about playing second fiddle. Can the coaching staff sell him on spending another year developing before being the star of the 2007 team?
6. Florida QB Chris Leak
Chris Leak will be the starter. There's little question about that, but how much will Urban Meyer adjust his spread to fit Leak's talents? Will it be a step back before taking a big leap forward when Tim Tebow can run the Meyer offense the way it's supposed to? Leak had better be lights out this spring or many Gator fans will be clamoring to get the Tebow era underway.
5. How fast can Ohio State's defensive back seven rebuild?
Gone are A.J. Hawk, Bobby Carpenter, Anthony Schlegel, Ashton Youboty, and Nate Salley are all gone to make tons of dough at the next level. The Buckeyes need every practice they can get before a September 9th trip to Texas.
4. Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
Joe Tershinski is the only Georgia quarterback with any experience seeing the most time in the loss to Florida completing eight of 21 passes for 100 yards with an interception. However, he'll have a major fight on his hands with superstar recruit Matthew Stafford enrolling early to battle for D.J. Shockley's old job. Joe Cox and Blake Barnes will be in the mix, but they're likely jockeying for a backup role.
3. How sharp is Bomar?
There's not a question about Oklahoma's starting quarterback, but the difference between a national title caliber season and playing second fiddle to Texas again rests on the emergence of Rhett Bomar. If he has a great spring and shows that the passing game can equal the running attack, then look out for the Sooners.
2. The USC backfield
John David Booty has all been anointed the new star, but watch out for redshirt freshman Mark Sanchez, who has a big arm and good mobility. Both will be quarterbacking NFL teams within the next few years. Of course, the running back situation will get a big look. The time will be now to impress with all the star freshmen coming in this summer.
1. Replacing Vince Young
Can Texas win another national title with a true freshman at quarterback? That'll be the question when Jevan Sneed hits campus unless redshirt freshman Colt McCoy shows he can hold him off. Sneed is the star who'll eventually be the main man, but McCoy ran the scout team last year and got to go against the number one defense every day.

 

[AU2001]

2. The Heisman finalists, before spring ball starts, are ...
Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma - It's his to lose. This will be his last chance before becoming the number one pick in the 2007 draft.
Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame - The clear-cut number two going into the year, but the Irish must be in the national title hunt all season.
Troy Smith, QB Ohio State - The numbers won't be there, but a win over Texas will launch the campaign.
John David Booty, QB USC - You'd throw for 25 touchdowns if you got to work with Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett.
Chris Leak, QB Florida - If Florida is in the mix for the national championship, Leak will get the credit.

Five who'll be mentioned in the race at some point this year
Brian Brohm, QB Louisville
Chad Henne, QB Michigan
Steve Slaton, RB West Virginia
Drew Stanton, QB Michigan State
Drew Tate, QB Iowa


Five who'll put up ridiculous numbers but won't get a sniff
John Beck, QB BYU
Colt Brennan, QB Hawaii
Brian Johnson, QB Utah
Jamario Thomas, RB North Texas
Garrett Wolfe, RB Northern Illinois


1. Other than USC and Texas, who are the top challengers for the national title?
Texas and USC will likely be 1-2 going into the season. Texas has everything in place except quarterback, while USC appears to have reloaded on offense and improved on defense with the addition of Nick Holt as defensive coordinator. Getting to the national championship game requires a good team, a favorable schedule, and a whole bunch of luck. If it's not Texas and/or USC in Phoenix, one or two of these ten teams will likely be there.
11. California
Team: One of the 15 most talented in America with a fearsome offense that'll be among the nation's best.
Schedule: A win at Tennessee in the opener would put the Bears in the hunt, but a road trip on November 18th to USC could end title hopes. Otherwise, it's not bad with almost all the tough games at home outside of Tennessee and USC.
10. LSU
Team: It could be argued that there's not a more talented team in America.
Schedule: Nope. As good as LSU might be, it's not going unbeaten with road trips to Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas.
9. Florida
Team: If Leak fits the offense, and vice versa, the Gators should far and away be the best team in the East. It's SEC title game or bust.
Schedule: Along with home games against Alabama, LSU and South Carolina, there are road dates at Tennessee and Florida State, along with the neutral site game against Georgia, that'll be too tough for an unbeaten season.
8. Florida State
Team: Probably the best in the ACC. The offense will be better, but the defense will need time to jell. It won't get it because ...
Schedule: ... the opener is at Miami. If the 'Noles beat the 'Canes, 12-0 is very possible with the remaining road games at NC State, Duke and Maryland. The only home dates to worry about are against Clemson, Boston College and Virginia before the showdown with Florida.
7. Miami (FL)
Team: Solid, but not the killer of past years. Will the offense find any consistency? Can the defense be better? It's still a great team, but it has to always play up to its talent level.
Schedule: ... Very, very nice considering the home slate. The toughest games are in the Orange Bowl against Florida State, and Virginia Tech, but a road trip to Louisville is dangerous.
6. Auburn
Team: Very, very good. Probably a top five team in the preseason rankings as long as the defense plays like a killer in off-season practices.
Schedule: It's not a walk in the park, but the nasty games are at home. The road games are at Mississippi State, South Carolina and Ole Miss before ending at Alabama. Washington State, LSU, Arkansas, Florida and Georgia travel to Jordan-Hare.
5. Oklahoma
Team: Very good. The Sooners will likely be underrated to start the season before taking up permanent residence in the top ten and maybe higher.
Schedule: No offense to Texas Tech and Texas A&M, but it's a two-game season. If OU wins at Oregon and beats Texas, its national title fate should be in its own hands.
4. Ohio State
Team: Top five, likely number three to start the year. The defense will turn out to be fine, while Troy Smith and the offense will be amazing.
Schedule: September 9th at Texas. A win in Austin would do for Ohio State with the Texas win in Columbus did for the Longhorns last year. The remaining road games are at Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois and Northwestern. That's not bad.
3. Notre Dame
Team: The defense won't be appreciably better than last year, but the offense will be lights out with Brady Quinn, Darius Walker and Jeff Samardzija returning.
Schedule: 11-0 before the trip to USC? The schedule looks harder than it actually might be with Penn State, Michigan, Purdue and UCLA coming to South Bend. A national title caliber team has to beat Georgia Tech, Michigan State and Navy on the road. Of course, things could all blow up on November 25th in L.A.
2. West Virginia
Team: Top 20, but not much higher. However, Pat White and Steve Slaton are superior talents, and the offensive line will be great.
Schedule: Maryland will be tough, at Pitt will be a bear trap and at Mississippi State might be sneaky-tough, but it all comes down to the Louisville game. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, it's played at ...
1. Louisville
Team: One of the nation's most explosive offenses, but the defense might be suspect.
Schedule: A home win over Miami would give the Cardinals the win needed to be discussed in the national title hunt, and a win at Kansas State the week after would really get the ball rolling. It all comes down to the home showdown with West Virginia.