2004 major league baseball: questions and thoughts.....

[gman2]

really looking forward to a profitable baseball season and enjoying the madjacks comaraderie on the mlb forum.

with all the roster turnover - as well as still being in basketball mode - still trying to get settled into mlb and im hoping some guys can provide some local info on, whether they be a fan or just something they read online or in the local fishwrap.

feel free to comment on anything below and if you can provide some local insight, please by all means post it.

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scattered mlb thoughts:

*baltimore wasted a ton of money. if lopez can duplicate his offense season from last year ill be amazed. palmeiro is a hundred, and the pitching staff is pathetic. ponson is an inconsistent ace and their #2 through #5 starters are mediocre at best.

*ill wait a few months before calling anaheim a contender again. guerrero was obviously a great pickup but i still dont think theyre better than seattle or oakland. i think people are sleeping on seattle a little bit. they could easily win that al west.

*something tells me the braves arent gonna go quietly in the nl east. if jd drew taps his potential- they could still be a very formidable lineup. pitching is a question mark though. no dominant starter

*i dont think the mets are all that bad. seeing a lot of cellar projections for them. but theres no way theyre worse than the expos. they should be competitive and a live dog at times.

*houston should win the central. cubs appear to have all the pieces but theyre still the cubs and theyre gonna be overpriced all season long.

*cincinnati is awful. that starting pitching is laughable. gonna be a loooong season for them.

*i know its somewhat of a 'chic projection' but i think san diego wins the west. new energy, new park, some good starting pitching. very much an up-and-coming team.

*one team im not ready to write off is the dodgers. everyone says they have no offense, but theyll be able to stay in a lot of games with their pitching alone. jeff weaver is still a very very good pitcher in my mind. maybe this change of scenery will do him well.

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questions im looking for answers to.

* whats the health status of aj burnett? is he going to recover from that surgery? to me, he is one of the best young pitchers in the national league and his stuff is even better than beckett's. is he recovered/recovering? made a lot of money on that kid in recent years. just a filthy pitcher that goes right at guys.

* whats the health status of darren dreifort? is he ever gonna be 100%? kind of a shame because he is another one that has real good stuff but he just seems to be incredibly injury prone. what are the dodgers expecting from him?

* how long is phil nevin out? fathers will do ok without him but his bat really solidifies that lineup. they can be competitive without him but they cant win a division without him.

* what are the starting one-through-five pitching rotations for:
~ milwaukee brewers
~san francisco giants
~toronto blue jays
~texas rangers

thanks for any replies and hope everyone has a good season

 

[PUHD]

gman2,

It's been a while since I've posted, but hope this helps.

#1-Burnett: Out until May/June. When/if he does come back this season, don't look for him to be himself. It could take 2 months after that to return to "old form".

#2-Dreifort: Should be starting the year in long relief. The Dodger's #5 pitcher is really a question mark. As of now, it looks to be Wilson Alvarez, but that could change quickly. They have a kid in AAA named Edwin Jackson that should be pitching in that spot to open the season, but isn't. Only a matter of time before he gets it. As for Dreifort's health, it will always be risky to depend on him. He hasn't had a complete season since 2000.

#3-Nevin: One of my favorite players. He will start the season at 1B and bat cleanup. You are right, a healthy Nevin is what the success of this team needs. Imagine: Klesko, Nevin, and Giles- all healthy- add the little bits and pieces players and you have a far better team than last years Padres.

#4- Starting Rotations

-Milwaukee:
--Sheets, Davis, Kinney, Capuano (no, not Kara from ESPN), and Obermueller......closer (kolb)

-San Francisso:
--Schmidt, Rueter, Williams, Tomko, Hermanson......closer Herges (Nen is on DL, who knows how long. Herges not a proven closer so keep that in mind in what could be close games) Schmidt should only miss opening day start. The rotation could skip #5 man to even itself back out.

-Toronto:
--Halladay, Batista, Lilly, Hentgen, Towers....Closer- A. Lopez for now, but has had an awful spring. Speier and Ligtenberg in line for some opps. Personaly, I like Ligtenberg. Addition of Batista is solid IMO.

-Texas:
Oh boy, this is not gonna be a fun year
--Rogers, Park, Lewis, Dickey, Benoit/Rodriguez....Closer- Cordero


Hope any or all of this helps. As for myself, I'm glad that the great game is back regardless of Rangers finishing in the west. Good luck to all here at Madjacks, and if time allows, hopefully I'll see you around.

 

[Superbear]

"jeff weaver is still a very very good pitcher in my mind."
:thinking:

 

[CrazyHorse]

Hey Gman...here are my thoughts on your thoughts :


Agree 100% on baltimore. Lack of pitching should kill this team. I know no one expects Javy to duplicate last years #'s. But I wouldn't be surprised if the decline is more than people think. It could also be argued that each team in the division is better and that will make division wins that much tougher.


Agree about Anaheim also. As a dog bettor I am always leery of teams that made a few FA moves and are expected to now be a contender. Yes they were extremely injured last year but even still I don't see an automatic return to the championship form of 2 years ago. To me the top 3 teams in the west are pretty even, with SEA being a half knotch down from OAK and ANA. I disagree that SEA could win the west. To me that would have to have too many things so their way. I think they will start out hot but to me just too many issues with age and an average pitching staff. I like Pinero but Garcia was way too up and down and I expect Franklin and Meche to regress a good bit. I also think they will be weaker defensively. I also believe the bullpen will be a notch down from last years. I think SEA starts out good but fades in the 2nd half again. Also I read an interesting fact that all 5 SEA starters did not miss a start last year due to injury or anything. Don't know that they will be that fortunate this year.


Agree also on the braves. Honestly I would not be surprised to see them end up in 3rd place. But no chance I will be betting against them until they actually decline on the field, not just on paper. They should be competitive though and it will be interesting to see where they end up.


Disagree and agree on the Mets. I do agree they will be a live dog this year (i hope). After some horrible decsion making my mgmt I think now they are finally in the right direction. However I think they could still finish last and think they will be bad. I do think they will be neck and neck w/ MON to finish last. But I expect a bounce back year from Glavine. Leiter should be solid. I also hear Tyler Yates could be a sleeper. I just expect them to be competitive and a good $ maker as a dog, which they will be in most spots.


Disagree that Houston should win the central. Even w/ Prior out for a while I still think it is neck and neck with those 2. Houston's hitters are getting older. Love the pitching staff. Oswalt could be this years Prior if he stays healthy. I do expect Clemens to regress moreso than expected and Pettite, being a lefty, may not like this park like he did yankee stadium. Like the cubs additon of Lee and Hawkins. Anytime 2 teams are very even I lean to pitching and, while both staffs are great, I still think Cubs is better overall. Cubs pen also should be a big advantage with Wagner out in Houston and Hawkins in in Chicago.

Cincy is awful no question. But while the pitching is horrible it may actually not regress from last years staff that was horrible too. And they get to play MIL and PIT alot so that should help. Again I do agree they will be horrible. But the team was adequate for a while last year with a bad pitching staff. But no question this team could finish last but at the same time I would not be shocked to see them finish ahead of Mil and Pit. BTW, I have April 27th as my date for the Ken Griffey injury pool. I am guessing he will get injured that day.


I have no problem with picking S.D to win the west. It may be a popular pick but I think that is because its a good pick. Improved team that doesnt have to face Schilling and Kevin Brown now. But many are picking them so like KC in the AL they are in the unfamiliar role of favorite to win or come close to winning the division. So I believe those greater expectations and how they (and KC) handle them could be important. ARZ and SF, on paper, should regress. Not sure about LA. I could see them ending in 1st or 4th.

Agree on the dodgers. I have a soft spot for defense in any sport. They have a terrific defense, most notably the infield. And I like their pitchers. I really think Odalis Perez is going to have a great year. I do worry about Ishii and his high pitch count/walk rate. I always get very nervous watching him pitch when I have $ on him. Add in Gagne and a great pen overall and I see no reason why they couldn't finish 1st. Oh wait on paper the offense is worse than last year. So like I said above..anywhere from 1st to 4th would not surprise me. I liked Weaver alot when he was with DET. When I heard he was going to LA I thought it was a perfect chance for him to bounce back: playing in a pitchers park again and away from the friendly NY media. However he has struggled in the spring so I am not so sure now. If he does start to show the slightest signs of improvment I will jump back on the bandwagon as I used to love watching him pitch w/ DET.


Glad to know you post in bases also. As mostly a lurker I know you are one of the best cappers here. I started a new job recently that affords me more time to post so I am planning on posting regularly in the MLB forum and just hope to contribute. Good luck this season!

 

[gman2]

crazyhorse / PUHD:

thanks for the outstanding replies. really enjoyable to talk baseball with guys who are sharp. thanks to both of you guys.

and crazyhorse- i think the dodgers made a GREAT move by acquiring milton bradley. assuming he doesnt self-implode, the kid is an awesome hitter and has all-star talent. of course his success is contingent on an attitude improvement, but assuming he stays out of trouble, the dodgers just made a great trade. from what im hearing, the kid the tribe got in return is a top-flight prospect so it looks like its a trade that should work out for both teams. dodgers got a big boost of offense today.

also re: weaver. im like you- always liked him when he was with detroit. he was doing it in obscurity and then he got thrown into new york. he just never looked comfortable. but hes shown hes capable of succeeding at the big league level and having fringe all-star talent. hopefully LA will be good for him. if im not mistaken, he played college ball at fresno state so he should be comfortable in cali

 

[CrazyHorse]

Not a problem gman. I have made an effort this offseason to try to improve in bases so I hope I am able to contribute solid analysis/picks this season.

I agree about Bradley. Sure you have to worry about his attitude. But this guy has had trade rumors around him for so long I can't help but think that contributed a little bit. Now that he is somewhere where he can be a big help w/o constant trade rumors I am sure his attitude will improve. It should still be a concern, no doubt.

I think Weaver could be a sleeper. Certainly not right away considering how he pitched this spring. But if his play starts to slowly improve around may-june I will be backing him alot. Maybe it is because I enjoyed watching him so much in Detroit and have a soft spot for him or something. The decision to bring him in the 6th game (i think it was the 6th game) of the world series was a bad one. Yes he gave up the HR but the way he pitched to that point he had no business entering the game. I really will be rooting for him this year.