2004 NFL FORMULA III TRACKING

[WARRIOR]

dt

I'm tracking 3 brand new NFL formulas that I developed. They have never been tested against any data. I'll be testing them formulas against VIRGIN DATA "LIVE" this season. Have fun and good luck...


1.) FORMULA III-Y


LEVEL 1 RATING: 0.01-24.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia


LEVEL 2 RATING: 25.00-49.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Oak


LEVEL 3 RATING: 50.00-74.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


LEVEL 4 RATING: 75.00-99.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


LEVEL 5 RATING: 100.00>:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-Y:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia
Oak




2.) FORMULA III-T


LEVEL 1 RATING: 0.01-0.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia
Oak


LEVEL 2 RATING: 1.00-1.49:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


LEVEL 3 RATING: 1.50-1.99

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


LEVEL 4 RATING: 2.00-2.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


LEVEL 5 RATING: 3.00>:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-T:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia
Oak




3.) FORMULA III-P


LEVEL 1 RATING: 1.00-2.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia


LEVEL 2 RATING: 3.00-5.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Oak


LEVEL 3 RATING: 6.00-6.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


LEVEL 4 RATING: 7.00-9.99:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


LEVEL 5 RATING: 10.00>:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-P:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia
Oak




ALL 3 FORMULAS AGREE:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia
Oak


ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ALL 3 AGREE, NONE OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0

Mia
Oak


ANY 2 AGREE:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ANY 2 AGREE, THE 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ANY 2 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER VS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ANY 2 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER VS A LEVEL 2 RATING OR LOWER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ANY 2 AGREE, NONE OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


ANY 2 AGREE, BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 2 RATING OR LOWER VS A LEVEL 3 OR HIGHER:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


FY3 + FT3 AGREE:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


FY3 + FP3 AGREE:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


FT3 + FP3 AGREE:

HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; ND: 0-0
HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL: 0-0


gl,
dave

 

[Agent 0659]

:help: :shrug:

 

[WARRIOR]

This is a RESULTS page for how the formulas do. The formulas pick a side on every game, but I need 6 games of data. Because there are only 2 games in which BOTH teams have 6 games under their belt, there are only two picks.

These are 3 new formulas, and I will post their individual picks as well as consensus picks (be it a 2-1 consensus or 3-0 consensus) each week to "test" the formulas. It is a "live" test since I have never tested any of them against past data.

Because there are 3 formulas I call it Formula III:

Formula III-Y (yards), or F3Y

Formula III-T (turnovers), or F3T

Formula III-P (points), or F3P

The chart which I posted will list each formulas picks and results as an individual formula separate from the other two.

The chart also lists the picks are results when 2 or more agree, etc.

The "level" ratings are to differentiate between different "levels" of strength and how the formula is performing regarding those different levels. The higher the level rating, the stronger the pick--hopefully.

For example, regarding F3P (points). The level ratings are broken up into logical dividing lines as such:

Level One: 0.01-2.99 (less than a FG differential [DIF])
Level Two: 3.00-5.99 (a DIF of a FG> but less than 2 FG's)
Level Three: 6.00-6.99 (a DIF of 2 FG's> but less than a TD)
Level Four: 7.00 (a DIF of a TD but less than double digits)
Level Five: 10.00> (a DIF of double digits or more)

The other two formulas also have level ratings with seemingly logical dividing lines to indicate the strength of the play.

The Results chart breaks down the picks according to how the individual formulas did "on their own" and also how they did with a 2-1 or 3-0 consensus. It also breaksdown those consensus figures according to various level ratings as you can see. And, of course, it breaks down the results according to traditional home/road, fave/dog, and division/non categories.

My expectation is that there will be postive results when a level 3 category or higher is involve in a consensus play. I am expecting better results in non-division games and in underdog roles.

gl,

dave