2004 Sos

[Kdogg21]

http://www.inside99.net/index.htm

NationalChamps.net still continues to use the same sliding scale formula as last year, where you receive more credit for playing higher ranked opponents. For example, the formula awards Team A more points for playing the #1 and #85 ranked opponents as opposed to Team B playing the #35 and #36 ranked opponents. However, unlike most computer versions, where they have a skewed version of a preseason poll that more resembles the season before, NationalChamps.net operates under a human notion by utilizing our current Top 50 rankings as decided on by people. All 117 teams are assigned two different point totals based on either a home or road score. For an 11-game schedule, we add the points assigned to each opponent depending on whether the game is on the road or at home. The importance is to realize the difference between the #46 team and the #62 team, which basically is not much on any given Saturday. Thus, teams falling outside the Top 50 are grouped into tiers instead of attempting to put an exact ranking label on each one. The difference in tier points on the lower end of the rankings is kept at a minimum (very small sliding scale). In other words playing UCLA at home is no different than playing Arizona State at home. Playing Louisiana-Lafayette is no different than playing Idaho.








1. Arkansas 1547
2. Georgia Tech 1483
3. Virginia Tech 1482
4. Kansas 1479
5. Texas A&M 1478
6. North Carolina State 1468
7. Notre Dame 1463
8. Oregon State 1462
9. Texas Tech 1422
10. Florida 1382
11. North Carolina 1368
12. Vanderbilt 1360
13. South Carolina 1357
14. Clemson (tie) 1350
15. Florida State (tie) 1350
16. Northwestern 1347
17. Arizona 1337
18. Wake Forest 1323
19. Georgia 1322
20. Baylor 1316
21. Kentucky 1311
22. Virginia 1307
23. Michigan State 1280
24. Arizona State 1275
25. Maryland 1264
26. Iowa 1262
27. Ohio State 1250
28. Stanford 1236
29. Miami FL 1231
30. Indiana 1228
31. Duke 1219
32. Auburn 1218
33. Tennessee 1211
34. Colorado 1210
35. Purdue (tie) 1209
36. Penn State (tie) 1209
37. Washington 1207
38. Louisiana State 1200
39. UCLA 1198
40. Houston 1196
41. Oklahoma 1172
42. Michigan (tie) 1171
43. Illinois (tie) 1171
44. Alabama 1147
45. Mississippi 1131
46. Oklahoma State 1126
47. California 1118
48. Minnesota 1114
49. Mississippi State 1108
50. Brigham Young 1093
51. Nebraska 1092
52. Wisconsin 1086
53. Louisiana Tech 1085
54. Iowa State 1081
55. Washington State 1080
56. Colorado State 1070
57. Texas 1060
58. Oregon 1053
59. Kansas State 1037
60. Syracuse 1028
61. Missouri 1010
62. Temple 984
63. Marshall 974
64. Southern Cal 944
65. UNLV 942
66. Cincinnati 939
67. Southern Miss 915
68. San Diego State 885
69. Louisville 804
70. Bowling Green 800
71. UCF 793
72. New Mexico 787
73. UAB 782
74. East Carolina 781
75. Arkansas State 773
76. Ball State 766
77. Pittsburgh 743
78. SMU 741
79. Western Michigan 725
80. Troy State 715
81. West Virginia 699
82. Miami OH 696
83. South Florida 683
84. Utah State 678
85. Ohio 673
86. Akron 668
87. Boston College 664
88. Army 658
89. Idaho (tie) 655
90. Wyoming (tie) 655
91. Rutgers 635
92. Rice 624
93. Fresno State 622
94. Toledo 617
95. Northern Illinois 612
96. Memphis 597
97. Eastern Michigan 593
98. Air Force 588
99. Kent State 577
100. Tulane 565
101. TCU 560
102. Connecticut 559
103. San Jose State 546
104. Utah 539
105. Tulsa 529
106. Buffalo 528
107. Louisiana-Monroe 527
108. Central Michigan 525
109. North Texas 507
110. New Mexico State 499
111. UTEP 493
112. Nevada 474
113. Middle Tennessee 471
114. Hawaii 467
115. Louisiana-Lafayette 428
116. Boise State 427
117. Navy 327

 

[Kdogg21]

Southern California - Thumbs down for the USC Trojans and the non-championship game Pac Ten conference. As ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit was quoted as saying last fall when Oklahoma and LSU were awarded the BCS Championship Bowl slots, "Don't cry for USC...they don't play a conference championship game." Yes, the Trojans face ONE Top 25 opponent in 2004, that being 20th ranked Cal. This can be reflected in their paltry 64th schedule ranking. In defense of USC, the Pac Ten is down in terms of Top 25 competition and the non-conference slate of Virginia Tech, Colorado State, BYU and Notre Dame is nothing to scoff at during most seasons. But, it just so happens that these teams are all on the current preseason downswing.

Utah - OK, maybe not a BCS title shot, then again...just win baby (see above note). The Utes can be found in many of the current Top 25 preseason polls. In fact, Ivan Maisel of ESPN.com even has Utah as his #10 team. Hmmmm...Utah finished #21 in last year's AP Poll...Utah has a hot second-year coach in Urban Meyer...Utah has 14 starters back from a 10-2 campaign...Utah plays the nation's 104th ranked schedule! Besides our own foresightfulness (see our 2004 Utah preview), our hats are off to Ivan Maisel for having the fortitude to see this one coming. If the Utes get by the Labor Day Weekend Thursday opener on ESPN versus Texas A&M, it could be the start of something real special in Salt Lake City - not one Top 50 team would be left on the list.

West Virginia - A large buzz was created when Athlon Sports picked WVU as their #5 team. If we had 25 cents for every time the question "why" came up, arcade games could be free for the rest of our lives. So why? With 16 starters back, including practically an all-senior lineup at their offensive skill positions, and the 81st SOS rank, the Mountaineers play the weakest schedule of anyone in our Top 24. The toughest opponent is #19 Maryland in Morgantown, versus a team that has manhandled WVU the last four outings. Watch out Coach Friedgen! The entire Big East was decimated by the departure of Miami and Virginia Tech. In fact, on only three occasions since 1991 has a team other than Virginia Tech or Miami won the Big East outright (WVU 1993, Syracuse 1997 & 1998). You really cannot blame the remaining conference teams for their lack of a 2004 schedule while trying to piece one together on such short notice. But maybe, just maybe, the cause and effect of these departures could turn out to be the biggest blessing in disguise for a team like WVU in 2004. Burn those couches down in Sunnyside.


There are three teams who are making an attempt to climb out of their respective cellars. Kansas made the biggest push in 2003 under second year coach Mark Mangino, a season culminating in KU's first bowl invite since 1995. So the Jayhawks were rewarded with the Big XII's toughest schedule (#4 overall SOS). Eight bowl teams are on the slate. Starting the first week of October: Nebraska, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas, Missouri...Oh my! Texas A&M did not fair much better in the SOS results (#5 overall SOS) while trying to get new coach Dennis Franchione off the quickly built hot seat. Closing strong will be difficult once again (to say the least), with Oklahoma and Texas dotting the final two-out-of-three match ups...Oh my!
Notre Dame just cannot catch a break in the new millennium. According to some faithful Domers, admission requirements are too high, classes too challenging, and coaching selections have been handled poorly. We might add for the 116th time since 1887, their schedule is loaded. Roll those dollars...Oh my!


The Naval Academy finishes last in the NationalChamps.net SOS rankings. Thus is the case for any low-major independent. Well, Navy is the only low-major independent since UConn joined the Big East and Troy State joined the Sun Belt. Head coach Paul Johnson took a 2-10 Navy team in his first season to an 8-5 bowl team in his second season. Was it a product of schedule? Maybe so, but I-AA opponents surely cannot be the sole reason for the low ranking as the Delaware Blue Hens made an unfitting Homecoming opponent for Navy last fall by visiting Annapolis and marching out with a 21-17 victory. Delaware marched all the way to a I-AA championship. The Blue Hens remain on the Navy 2004 schedule and could be one of the toughest opponents on the list.

 

[Kdogg21]

Arkansas has the #1 SOS because.....

--Two Top 4 teams (Georgia, LSU)

--Three Top 10 teams (Georgia, LSU, Texas)

--Eight Top 50 opponents

---A six game stretch consisting of six Top 40 teams (Sept. 25 - Nov. 13)

----A three game stretch versus three Top 13 teams, two on the road (at Florida, at Auburn, Georgia).

 

[Master Capper]

I thought teams from the SEC fattened up on bottom dwellers from other leagues and they only really play two good teams in their league?

 

[Kdogg21]

yea i thought that too. I heard they have the easiest schedule every year too. I can't believe 6 teams from the SEC would be in the top 25 in SOS. that is so unreal MC!!!

 

[Master Capper]

thats called a Checkmate!

 

[mansa_musa]

SOS based on preseason rankings! You guys are really reaching now! Assigning pts to teams who havent played a game yet, based on peoples opinions.

According to last yrs preseason rankings, Auburn should have been tougher for USC to beat on the road than Cal. We all know now, that was not true. Football is played on the field, not in the polls. Preseason or otherwise! Think about this, if Oregon St beats LSU in the first game of the season next yr, the Beavers still wont be ranked in either poll higher than the Tigers. Would LSU still be a better team? Would OSU's current ranking still bring down LSU's SOS?

Nice try fellas, but, I'm not gonna fall for the banana in the tailpipe!

Other small points:

Why make a big deal about the Pac 10 not having a championship game? Miami, Ohio St, FSU, Oklahoma & Nebraska didnt have to win championship games to compete for BCS titles.

I didnt think Colorado played in a bowl last yr! Too lazy to check though.

USC -- As a Pac 10 fan, I admit their schedule does look weak. But that's before we see which team steps up as 2nd best in the conf. In my opinion SC will lose a conf game this yr. If whatever team beats them only loses 1 conf game or if Oregon beats OU, then loses only 1 conf game, I can see two Pac 10 teams in BCS bowls.

Cal -- I think expectations may be too high for this team. Sneaking up on people has it's advantages & the Golden Bears wont catch anybody by surprise next yr.

Arkansas -- Very tough schedule! They obviously wont win the conf. Watch what happens to their ranking! But, by the end of the season they will be better than some team that does get ranked in the top 25.

 

[Kdogg21]

i agree, but if you look at the website, even after much of the teams have played, the rankings stay the same. look at 2002 for example...both the pre-season rankings and the final BCS rankings were almost the same. obviously they moved around a bit, but they were mostly 5/10 places in with eachother. i still would have to say winning at Auburn is more difficult than winning at California...

 

[Kdogg21]

2002 pre-season SOS

1. Florida 30.17
2. Alabama 32
3. Mississippi State 33.08
4. Southern Cal 33.17
5. Kentucky 33.83
6. Florida State 34.08
7. Vanderbilt 34.17
8. Notre Dame 34.42
9. Missouri 35
10. Texas Tech 35
11. Auburn 35.25
12. Michigan 35.58
13. Iowa State 35.85
14. Georgia 36.17
15. Miami FL 36.17
16. Mississippi 36.67
17. Virginia 36.85
18. Oklahoma State 37.58
19. Rutgers 37.67
20. South Carolina 37.75
21. Tennessee 38
22. Louisiana State 38
23. West Virginia 38.17
24. UCLA 38.67
25. Stanford 38.82
26. Texas A&M 38.83
27. Baylor 38.92
28. Virginia Tech 39.46
29. Arizona State 39.77
30. Penn State 39.83


2002 final SOS



1 Southern Cal
2 Michigan
3 Florida State
4 Stanford
5 Georgia
6 Wisconsin
7 Alabama
8 Florida
9 Texas Tech
10 Colorado
11 UCLA
12 Arkansas
13 Virginia
14 Oklahoma
15 Notre Dame 2
16 Penn State
17 North Carolina
18 Iowa State
19 Miami FL
20 Ohio State
21 Washington State
22 Texas
23 South Carolina
24 Pittsburgh
25 Clemson
26 Washington
27 Vanderbilt
28 Auburn
29 Cincy
30 Virgina Tech

 

[Master Capper]

Kdogg,

Stop!!!! You have more than proved your point and you are now going to be battling Mansa Mansa (Scott using another screen name)! Mansa only seems to appear when Scott has been backed into a corner and his comments have been stuffed up his a$$ and shown to be wrong and biased then Mansa will pop out of nowhere and defend Scott's ill advised comments! What I found funny is that two of the teams that Scott has taken to task for playing a weak schedule, Nebraska and Arkansas are ranked ahead of USC in strength of schedule! From my count using the top 50 the Pac 10 only has 40% of their teams in the top 50 whereas the Big 12 even playing a weak schedule and a slew of DIv 1-AA schools according to Scott has nearly 70% in the top 50! The SEC even though they play bottom feeders from other leagues and just two teams in the SEC has everyone of their teams in the top 50! Just playing Devil's Advocate and agreeing with Scott that both the Big 12 and SEC play weak out of conf schedules then it is quite apparent that they are gaining this schedule strength through league games against their brethren whereas since the Pac 10 plays a fierce non-conf schedule they are thus being penalized for the strength of their league! Thanks for the info Kdogg!

 

[mansa_musa]

Master Capper

That's an excellent defense???? Just say Scott wrote it!!!! Then attack Scott some more!!! Nevermind what I wrote! Do you really think Scott would say that he expects SC to lose 1 conf game next yr?

Are you gonna run your little ass to Madjack & tell on me next time I say something you dont like?

both the Big 12 and SEC play weak out of conf schedules then it is quite apparent that they are gaining this schedule strength through league games against their brethren whereas since the Pac 10 plays a fierce non-conf schedule they are thus being penalized for the strength of their league!

Looking at Kdogg's 2002 stats, how many Pac 10 teams had higher SOS at the end of the season, compared to SEC teams, who for the most part dropped in SOS. How did Miss St & Kentucky fall completely out of the top 30 when they started out top 10? They must have played eight games against each other!!!

From my count using the top 50 the Pac 10 only has 40% of their teams in the top 50 whereas the Big 12 even playing a weak schedule and a slew of DIv 1-AA schools according to Scott has nearly 70% in the top 50! The SEC even though they play bottom feeders from other leagues and just two teams in the SEC has everyone of their teams in the top 50!

Nice math! I heard that if you count preseason top 50 teams hopping over a fence it will help you fall asleep at night!!! But in July, it doesnt prove anything at all.

Kdogg

i still would have to say winning at Auburn is more difficult than winning at California...

For who? & when?

And that is my point about SOS. To me it is a relative term. It was harder last yr for anybody at Cal than at Auburn. Because Cal had a better team on the field. That comment of yours has no basis in reality, as long as Cal can put a better team on the field than Auburn. Higher attendance, higher rankings, higher TV ratings & LSU's national championship dont change the fact one bit. Football is played on the field.

 

[Avalanche]

Mansa/Scott, nice of you to mention one of the biggest shockers of the OOC season when USc beat Auburn.... of course it wasnt that much of a shock that USC could win, but the manner in which they did win maybe was the most shocking part. Point is though--- that is not the norm, it is the exception. Out of all the OOC "intriguiing"
matchups last year involving the Pac 10, they only talk about USC's win against Auburn. What else can you hang your hat on???? Auburn proved to be not nearly as good as the preseason hype.

SOS is fairly relative I'll give you that, but every conference has teams that dont live up to the preseason hype.... happens all the time. USC demolished Auburn 24-0 which was vry impressive, but you boys can cling to the OOC schedule all you want (3 games or 4 games max) but the CONFERENCE slate is what kills the weak-ass Pac 10 every time. BTW the conference schedule is 7-8 games, so it should be twice as important as the OOC schedule. The Pac 10 is a joke. It is competitive and fun to watch, but it is not a serious major conference.What makes me laugh at you and Scott the most is you say "everything went against USC" last year and did Okla not serve it up in the Big 12 game and had that not happened USC would have had NO CLAIM to any sort of phantom NC last year? I think that "went for" USC because before that big 12 game USC was on the outside looking in (and still was). So dont tell me the Pac 10 has a good SOS. If they did, in 2003 OU -or- LSU would have been demoted to the Rose Bowl NOT the Rubbers. You Pac 10 jokers havent even qualified for the NC game since the BCS came into existance (dont worry, the Pac 10 will still make it to the BCS game one of these days and certainly before the Sunbelt does).

I agree with you Capper.... Mansa does pop out of nowhere and is never heard from when Scott has his posting power for the most part. Seems odd to me.

 

[Kdogg21]

lets not forget it took LSU 1 quarter(21 pts) vs aubrun, for what it took USC to do the whole game...


i do think winning vs Auburn is a tough task. California and Aubrun had decent seasons,but Aubrun lost all of there games to ranked teams, exept Georgia Tech. California was losing to teams like Colorado St and Utah St UCLA. I dont know, it just to me if you matched those 2 schools up, Auburn would probably win.

All in all i think SOS, is just a matter of opinoin, your never going to have the right forumula for it. One source is gonna say they have a tough schedule the other source is gonna say they aren't. Lets face it, if your top dog in the nation, well prove it....

 

[Avalanche]

And USC won AT Auburn, very impressive. I was quite impressed with USC's win and so were a ton of other people. As Kdogg said, Auburn stunk it up for the whole season and weren't they preseason #6 or something? Preseason, i agree with mansa/scott, is speculative at best with some underlying best-guess estimates, but it is a crap shoot for the most part. My point is at the END of the season no Pac 10 team has a good enough SOS to get to the big game... Scott/mansa get your search engine going and lets see how many pac 10 teams have recorded impressive OOC victories in the last few years. The only other one I can think of off the top of my head was Michigan at oregon last year. You need to come up with a lot of them because conference SOS kills the Pac 10 girls football conference every single time, year after year, no matter what year it is. You can go back 20 years and the pac 10 hasn't had good conference SOS a single time.

 

[mansa_musa]

Avalanche

My point was about how preseason polls (nor any other polls!) are no real measure of SOS. Sorry you missed that, since you were so eager to argue w Scott! I didnt say the Pac had a strong SOS, just that a SOS rating based on preseason polls isnt proof of anything related to conf strength. I never said anything about USC's SOS last yr in any of my posts. So if that kills you, then die already!

Should I have mentioned that it should have been harder for Oregon to beat Michigan at home than Wash St? Oregon never surpassed Michigan in the polls. The Cougars beat Oregon by 39 pts the week after the Ducks beat Michigan 31-27. Or how about Arkansas not passing Texas after they beat the Longhorns! The examples arent only in the Pac 10.

You Pac 10 jokers havent even qualified for the NC game since the BCS came into existance

The BCS formula has changed every yr since its existence also. According to the newest formula, the Big 12 would lose 2 past title game reps. Oklahoma last yr & Nebraska a few yrs back. I dont believe the BCS has gotten it right in any yr so far. I find it hard to have confidence in a system that hasnt stayed the same 2 seasons in a row.

The Pac 10 has 5 wins in BCS bowl games --Orange, Fiesta, Sugar & Rose -- more than every conf except the SEC & Big 10 (6 wins each.) For you to say that the Pac 10 isnt a serious major conf, shows a lack of knowledge in regard to the subject at hand. As a matter of fact, nothing you said in your post deserves to be taken seriously.

Kdogg

I commend you for being the only person to come with it like a man. Instead of arguing about something Scott said somewhere else, in some other post.

small points:

LSU played Auburn at home w a sr QB. SC played at Auburn w a QB in his 1st start. Hard to compare the two games in their context. Also, I dont think the fact that Auburn was able to score 7 pts v LSU means that SC had a better defense. I do think the fact that SC was able to match LSU's winning margin, even though they were the road team, says alot about the comparative strength of the 2 teams.

In a matchup of Cal & Auburn. I think Auburn would have trouble if they had to play from behind. I expect their passing game to improve, but, I dont expect to see Manning-type #s next yr from Campbell. Cal would be at a disadvantage trying to stop the Auburn rushing game, but, the Tigers failed to dominate in a few games that I figured they would have last yr. On a neutral field, I'd take Cal to cover the spread. How's that!

 

[Kdogg21]

i dont know for me, it would be tough to pick. you don't know what team is gonna show up for either team. I would lean probably toward cali if i had to take either one. But Auburn does have a strong run game, your right, the Bears would have trouble stopping that. tough call...

The Pac-10 is a decent conference don't get me wrong, but i just don't think it can compete right now with the SEC or ACC. there is alot of talent at all the schools there. The Pac 10 has that, but only for a few selected teams. I think it would be cool if they did like a ACC/SEC challenge or a Pac 10/SEC challenge like they do in the basketball. that would be great for the fans to see both types of game styles they have....

 

[mansa_musa]

OK, Avalanche!

No search engine needed. Impressive Pac 10 OOC wins over the last few yrs. Off the top of my head:
UW over ranked Miami
UCLA over ranked Alabama (twice I think!)
Oregon over ranked Michigan & Colorado
WSU over ranked Texas
Cal @ ranked Mich St & over Va Tech
USC over Auburn twice, Iowa, Michigan

Now your next post will tell me how some or all of these victories were not very impressive. We can differ in opinion on that.

You still havent told me anything about any impressive OOC victories for the Big 12 last yr. Since it was SOS that put OU over the top, tell me about their impressive conf wins.

Texas -- WSU & Ark beat them! Texas ended the season ranked higher than both!
Ok St -- lost 4 of 5 games v ranked opponents!

The only significant win for those two teams was over K St, the Big 12 champ, incidentally. Oklahoma didnt play a single conf team that won a bowl game last yr! Six Big 12 teams lost their bowl games. Dont tell me the Big 12 had a strong conf last yr. The facts just dont bare that out.

 

[Kdogg21]

BIG 12 OOC Wins

Colorado----beat @colorado St, UCLA
TEXAS A&M----#25 Utah
Texas Tech---@#18 Mississippi,New Mexico, Navy
Nebraska----Penn St,Utah St, @S Miss, Michigan St
Kansas------California
Oklahoma---@Alabama,UCLA,Fresno St, N Texas


not to shabby for some of those teams....

and w/ Oklahoma...those teams may have not won their bowl game, but it still make a difference that they got there. their schedule had 9 teams that made it to bowl games last year

 

[mansa_musa]

I made a mistake. OU played Tx Tech who beat Navy in a bowl game.

K St beat Cal, not Kansas. That would have been an impressive win.

As fas as OU playing 9 bowl teams. The Big 12 has 8 bowl tie-ins, which means they have 8 bowl spots to fill. It doesnt matter how good those teams are, they just need to be .500 or better to get a bowl bid. OK St beat SMU, SMS, LA- Laf & Wyoming. After that stretch, a 2-6 big 12 conf season would have made them bowl eligible. They went 5-3, but my point is that they didnt have to be a good team to get a bowl bid. A better case would be Kansas. They beat UNLV, Wyoming & Jax St. All they needed (& got!) was a 3-5 record in conf play. Home wins over Iowa St, Baylor & Missouri was all the Jayhawks needed to get a bowl bid. If you look at Missouri & Texas you would see similar type OOC schedules, where a bowl game is a virtual certainty, even w a below .500 conf season.

Not railing against the Big 12. Just saying that the # of bowl teams in a conf is not a good strength of conf barometer either. My thought is that maybe if the Big 12 played tougher teams OOC, they would compete better in the bowls. You can say all you want about how tough the conf is. But when they go 2-6 against all the other confs in the bowl season, & they have lost more BCS bowl games (where the best of the best play each other!) than they have won, the on the field results prove otherwise.

 

[Kdogg21]

The bowls are all about money and bringing in those teams will definatly bring in the $$$$...