From ESPN.com Insider/Scout's Edge:
From ESPN.com Insider/Scout's Edge:
Auburn Offense vs. Alabama Defense
QB Brandon Cox threw four interceptions last week, including one that was returned for a touchdown. Combine that with the fact that this is running back Kenny Irons' last Iron Bowl, and it's safe to expect offensive coordinator Al Borges to run early and often. Irons has been hindered by foot injuries, but he still runs hard between the tackles and has the burst to get to the outside. In addition, backup Brad Lester has big-play capability and provides good depth, so Borges can stay committed to the ground game without wearing Irons out. Alabama defensive coordinator Joe Kines will counter with eight-man fronts and run blitzes. However, there are reasons to believe this approach won't work. First and most important, eight-man fronts and run blitzes only work when executed properly, and the Tide's front seven didn't play particularly well last week. The front four took too long to shed their blocks and linebackers got caught out of their gaps far too often. That has to change this week because Irons and Lester are both capable of cutting back, and they are dangerous when they get into the open field. Secondly, OC Joe Cope generally does a good job of keeping the front five on the same page, and they should have some success picking up the blitzes. The backs should have plenty of running room when that happens.
Cox has been hobbled by a knee injury and he isn't making sound decisions in the face of pressure so keeping him upright and giving him time to find the open man when he drops back to pass is a priority. That would be reason for concern most weeks but Alabama has had problems getting to the quarterback all year. Alabama doesn't have a dominant pass rusher up front and its blitz-packages haven't been as productive as hoped. With that in mind, the pass protection should be sound unlike last week and that's not good news for Alabama's secondary. Though corners Ramzee Robinson and Simeon Castille rarely get caught out of position, they should have a hard time matching up with WR Courtney Taylor. Taylor is fast enough to get behind Robinson and is strong enough to push the lean Castille around. However, Kines will consistently double Taylor if WR Rodgeriqus Smith doesn't produce working against single coverage. Though Smith is inconsistent, he has the second gear to track balls downfield and is tall enough to compete for jump balls. He must make the most of his natural ability and force Kines to either drop both safeties back effectively opening up the running game or try to cover Taylor with one man.
Alabama Offense vs. Auburn Defense
Alabama opened up its passing attack against an excellent LSU defense Saturday night and QB John Parker Wilson will get another chance to attack downfield this week. However, expect the Tide to come out running the ball. First off, Alabama can't afford to fall behind early because it doesn't have the weapons to overcome a substantial deficit. That means the Tide need to avoid turnovers that give the Tigers quality starting field position or points. Wilson has thrown eight interceptions this year and lost a fumble last week so keeping the ball on the ground decreases the chances of a turnover. Secondly, RB Kenneth Darby has admittedly had a disappointing season, but he is still the engine that powers this offense. He explodes through holes, rarely goes down with the first hit and should be eager to make an impact in his last game at Bryant-Denny Stadium. While Darby is unlikely to rack up big yards, he doesn't have to break a lot of long runs. In fact, consistently picking up 3 to 4 yards per carry is more important because that would help keep Wilson out of situations with pass-heavy tendencies. The key to Darby's success will be the ability of the Tide's offensive line to prevent penetration and its play has been average at best this year. If the Tigers are able to get into the backfield and force Darby to make cuts in the backfield, he will have a hard time keeping the offense out of situations with pass-heavy tendencies.
DC Jonathan Wilhite struggled last week and Auburn benched him in favor of Pat Lee. It's unclear who will start this week, but obviously offensive coordinator Dave Rader should try to attack the corner who lines up opposite David Irons. The problem is WR Keith Brown aggravated a knee injury last week and may not be available. There isn't much depth behind Brown and fellow starter D.J. Hall so Alabama will have a hard time exploiting this weakness if Hall can't go. In addition, though Irons is substantially shorter than Hall, he is quick and physical. He should have some success limiting Hall's production consequently. Making matters far worse, Wilson should have to hold onto the ball longer if Brown isn't in the lineup and the Tide should have a hard time holding up in pass protection. Freshman LOT Andre Smith is massive and has the long arms to ride pass rushers past the pocket when he can get his hands on them. However, defensive ends Marquies Gunn and Quentin Groves are explosive enough to turn the corner before Smith gets into position and they have good closing speed. Look for Alabama to consistently use a tight end or back to help Smith in an effort to give Wilson enough time to find the open man downfield.
Special Teams
Auburn PK John Vaughan, who has connected on 19 of his 22 field goal attempts, possesses a good blend of accuracy and range. Backup Matt Clark handles the kickoff duties andhas been outstanding, as 46 of his 58 kickoffs have ended in touchbacks. The only concern is two of his kicks have gone out of bounds. P Kody Bliss has a strong leg and flashes the ability to pin the opponent's deep. KORs Tristan Davis and Brad Lester are dangerous open field runners who can make defenders miss and go the distance when they get a seam. Though the punt return unit hasn't been as productive as hoped, PR Robert Dunn has the second gear to outrun defenders when he gets a step so Alabama must be careful not to underestimate him. Tide PK Jamie Christensen has connected on 11 of his 15 field goal attempts and is accurate inside 40 yards but he doesn't have great range and he missed two field goal attempts outside 40 yards last week. He also handles the kickoff duties and has struggled in that role. Only four of his 40 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks and he has kicked the ball out of bounds three times. Though P P.J. Fitzgerald generally gets good hang time on his kicks and shows nice touch, he lacks ideal range. Return man Javier Arenas is elusive and possesses excellent top-end speed making him a threat to make a big play every time he touches the ball. He returned a punt 65 yards for a touchdown against Florida International earlier this year. However, he hasn't been nearly as productive returning kickoffs.
Matchups
? Alabama LOT Andre Smith vs. Auburn DE Quentin Groves
? Auburn RB Kenny Irons vs. Alabama MLB Prince Hall
? Alabama RB Kenneth Darby vs. Auburn MLB Karibi Dede
Scouts' Edge
On paper, this game looks like a blowout. After all, Auburn's front seven is capable of slowing Darby and forcing Wilson to make plays with his arm. Offensively, Irons and Lester should benefit from running behind a superior offensive line and keep the Tide off balance. QB Brandon Cox should have enough time to find the open man downfield and make fewer mistakes as a result. However, expect a very close game. While Alabama has a disappointing season, a win against the hated War Eagle is exactly the way it wants to head into the offseason. In addition, Auburn's second loss of the season effectively knocked it out of the national championship race and its players could still be reeling from the blowout. With all of that said, the Tigers are the more talented team and another loss would be devastating, so expect them to eek out the win after a slow start.
Prediction: Tigers 24, Crimson Tide 21
