2008 Post Season Thread

[Destructor D]

I have done well in the past during the playoffs... I really need to do well again this year.

Starting with these plays:
Milwaukee +185 for 5* - Wow! I was shocked when I saw this number so high. I know Hamels is tough and Philly's crowd will be rocking. However, the Brewers come into this game playing great baseball and knowing a win in game #1 could give them the series. Gallardo pitched limited innings, but he was solid. If line was -160 or less, I might try Philly, but will back the Brewers at this price.

Dodgers +150 for 5* - Lowe has been awesome late in the season. Dempster has been great at home, but he's been knocked around late in the year where Lowe has been awesome. Going to take a stab with the Dodgers at this price.

Going to wait on Aaheim/Boston, but leaning towards Boston +120 right now. Public has bet the line up and I don't mind fading the public during the post season. Lester has been solid and Lackey just had a game where he was literally CRUSHED by Texas. Lackey also had poor starts in 4 of his last 5 games. Lester has posted solid starts in 5 of his last 6 games.

Okay, just talked myself into Boston +120 for 5*.

GLTA

 

[Destructor D]

Hilarious!

Just checked the opening series line at my offshore and they have Angels -130 Boston +120 for the 1st round series.

However, they have Boston the favorite to win the AL Pennant and World Series... Can someone explain how they're favored to lose in the 1st round, but yet the ALCS favorite and WS favorite:shrug:

Sounds like the books haven't adjusted their numbers or expect Boston to cruise if they get by the Halos.

 

[rusty]

Anahiam at -130 Sounds like the play.
That line seems weird.As far as the overall odds to win World series?

Its tough.Anahiam seems like a steal,but beware and GL!

 

[Jig-Jag]

The season has been all about paying the juice. Brewers are batting a shit .206 or some shit vs the Phillies. No value with the Brewers imo. I'd want +250+ for the Crew atleast. Just know value.

 

[rubiconed]

Staying away from the game, and just playing the Over 8.5 !!! GL Guys !!! :toast:

 

[Destructor D]

Completely disagree on Brewers. Milwaukee was hot at the end of the season and this line is overpriced IMO. Milwaukee also won't feel pressure whereas Philly was swept in last season's 1st round against the Rockies and will feel pressure IMO.

Dogs have dominated in recent post seasons and Hamels is very hittable. I believe this number should be closer to -160 for a fair number and Milwaukee has great value @ +185. Gallardo has put up great numbers as well in limited innings.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Good luck D!

 

[gjn23]

Brewers were hot?

10-16 in sept

yes, 5-1 in the last week but vs a pirate team that stinks and the brewers needed 2 walk off wins and vs a cub team that played regulars once (and won) and the brewers still needed a walk off win to get into the playoffs.

they may win, but they arent hot.

 

[Destructor D]

Sorry, but 5-1 during the past week counts as hot in my book... I don't care if they played co-ed baseball teams.

2-1 +8.5* - Glad to show a profit when so many people got crushed.

White Sox +170 for 5* - Chicago has already played a couple post season games. TBay is playing their first post season game in history and nerves could be an issue. Vasquez was HORRID late in the year so they'll have him on a short hook. Complete contrarian play.

Philly +125 for 5* - Myers was also struggling late in the year, but I'm not sure how much Sabathia has in the tank pitching on 3 days rest AGAIN. I also love taking home dogs in the post season.

Dodgers +160 for 5* - Grabbed this play last night when the number jumped. Zambrano wasn't the same pitcher late in the season other than his no hitter when the Disastros were steaming mad about playing in Milwaukee. LA looks loose and should take another game IMO.

GLTA

 

[Destructor D]

4-2 +17.75*

Played Red Sox +125 for 5* - Really like this play. Dice K getting nice plus money because the Angels need to win... sorry, it's probably going to be Red Sox nation again this post season... well, at least the first round!:00hour

Still debating White Sox, Tampa Bay, but leaning towards White Sox. Just a feeling Kazmir presses a bit in first post season game and makes some mistakes. I also wouldn't be suprised to see the line increase so going to wait.

 

[Destructor D]

Okay, going to make my play now. I could see this number decreasing so I'll grab it while it's still sky high!

White Sox +145 for 5* - Chicago knows their season is on the line and Buehrle was tough late in the year. I know his road numbers are terrible, but Kazmir is still young and could make some mistakes.

Also, I can win 7.25* backing Chicago. I would need to lay approximately 11* backing TBay to make the same amount. I also expect one of these series to be 1-1 after the 2nd game.

GLTA

 

[Theboundbook]

4-2 +17.75*

Played Red Sox +125 for 5* - Really like this play. Dice K getting nice plus money because the Angels need to win... sorry, it's probably going to be Red Sox nation again this post season... well, at least the first round!:00hour

Still debating White Sox, Tampa Bay, but leaning towards White Sox. Just a feeling Kazmir presses a bit in first post season game and makes some mistakes. I also wouldn't be suprised to see the line increase so going to wait.

Well done so far!!!! 17.25 units!!!! Love Boston tomorrow, (LAA has same problem against Bos as CHC does against anyone in playoffs.... they cant win!)

TB vs CHW looks like a toss up. CHW is the value play. Not sure which way myself, but you make a valid point.

Good luck tomorrow and the rest of the playoffs!

 

[Destructor D]

Thanks Boundbook.

I agree the Devil Rays should win, but I don't see a lot of value at this price. I feel a line of -130 to -135 would be far more accurate. Also, Pena might be out which hurts TBay in a slugfest with White Sox. So far, many of these post season games have been decided in slugfests, not a lot of manufacturing runs which should help Chicago.

Red Sox game is a toss up, but I give a slight edge to Boston as I feel Dice K is the more polished starting pitcher.

GLTA

 

[PJ12]

Pena is in as of now, GL

 

[Destructor D]

Once again, I screw up betting early... could have White Sox @ +155 right now. When am I ever going to learn???

If the public starts betting a game one way, it's probably going that way. A lot of cappers must bet how the line moves.

 

[Destructor D]

5-3 +19*

Took these last night and got decent numbers! Finally!

Philly +110 for 5* - Brewers are done and Bush can't even help them... literally! Phillies are saying to themselves, "WE GOT BUSH!"

Dodgers +130 for 5* - Love this play as Scrubs are done... bye-bye Chicago!

GLTA

 

[Destructor D]

6-4 +20.5*

First chalk of the playoffs!
Philly -105 for 5* - Suppan will get rocked today!

Tampa Bay +125 for 5*

Anaheim +150 for 5*

GLTA:00hour

 

[Destructor D]

8-5 +28* - Hopefully I'll keep winning!:00hour

Tampa Bay +125 for 5* - Nice number as Floyd should have some problems vs. the many lefties for Tampa Bay. Floyd also hasn't been as effective late in the season.

Angels +135 for 5* - Public obviously backing Red Sox as Lester has been tough at home. However, it's very difficult to win the same pitching matchup twice in a week and I have a feeling Lester gets hit tonight. Red Sox should have won last night, but were unable to get the clutch hit. I have a feeling we have game #5 in Anaheim/LA on Wednesday night.

 

[Destructor D]

9-5 +34.25* - Hopefully the winning continues with the Halos rocking Lester early and often!

I would like to hit the 41* mark during the first round! This would put me ahead of the last couple years when I dominated as well.

 

[fla]

Keep it up. I'm with you on the LA/Anaheim/California/Redondo Beach team.

Good luck!