MJ's MLB playoffs
-----------------
12-10 +5.33
ml: 6-5 +3.61
rl: 1-1 -0.22
1st5: 1-2 -1.82
totals: 1-0 +0.5
team totals: 0-1 -0.46
series: 3-1 +3.72
Still smarting from that Harden game #see-ya and Lester's first groan vs the Rays. Last year's playoffs were much better for me--smokin' until some Rox trash in the finale (couldn't resist the early lines but at least caught on quickly enough). Intensified my search for this finale but remain clueless early on.
==============================
presumed rotations:
Phil:
Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Blanton
TB:
Kazmir
Shields
Garza
Sonnanstine
pre-series prospectus:
1 phil 54%
2 TB 64%
3 Phil 55%
4 Phil 54%
5 Phil 70%
6 TB 65%
7 TB 62%
You may notice quite a swing in the home-away matches for Hamels/Kazmir (g#1 vs g#5). Not just the home-field edge swing but also compensated for Hamels slightly better work at home and Kazmir with the much better numbers at home. Duplicate matchup in g#2 and g#6 but I'm giving the Rays a slightly better edge coming back from Philadelphia then I gave them in game #2.
Limited batter vs pitcher matchups though you can certainly check them out online. Nothing within the same made me adjust the numbers much. I spent more time adjusting for home/away factors for the SP's, bullpens (only slightly) and offenses. Most of TB's arm prefer Tropicana save for Sonnanstine. Phils get the DH on the road but still have more of an edge, in that regard, at home, especially when TB meets a lefty. On that note, I'm still quite shocked at the Rays trouble with lefties this season as that was their strong suit last season--facing lefties. Early rounds saw TB do so-so work against Buehrle (driving the era up mostly due to the 8th inning), not having great success vs Danks, and then mashing Lester in his first go before really being stymied in the early going of game #7. I figure that they may struggle vs Hamels but Moyer has been shaky so far in the playoffs.
Anyways, based on the above numbers (subject to change slightly as things develop), I get the following results:
Phil in 4 5.774%
Phil in 5 17.378%
Phil in 6 11.945%
Phil in 7 12.295%
===============
Phillies W series 47.392%
Rays in 4 6.094%
Rays in 5 7.554%
Rays in 6 18.894%
Rays in 7 20.065%
===============
Rays W series 52.607%
Off by 1/1000'th of a percent as I rounded to three decimal places.
===============================
I'm not sure how much credence (sic?) to give the game numbers so I may have wasted my time coming up with the preceeding, but I know that this system works and spent due diligence adjusting for home/away factors, vs L/R numbers as well as considering recent production by both the hitters and the pitchers. Phillies layoff may hurt them but just considering last year's results--the Rox layoff and then see-ya--may not be the most indicative of available information. Even before plugging away at these numbers I was quite unsure what to expect from this series, though I was considering a Phillies series play.
Series possibilities look like this, if I'm not too far gone:
Phillies 47%(+132)+3
Rays 53%(-142)-6
Looks like a Phillies series play for me if anything, which is unlikley. I'm going to look for individual games to play and forego the possibility of worrying about future hedges.
Game #1 I'm looking at
Phillies 54%(-107)+2
Not tremendous value there, either.
Didn't stop me from pounding the Rays in game #7 but that was due to a now-(hopefully)-past who-gives a funk attitude and, fortunately, horseshoes prevailed.
Sorry for the uncertainty, at this present time.
Should be a whale of a series but I have no clue what to do with these opening lines.
NCAA football is the only thing working for me lately so I may stick with that until something reaches out and grabs me.
I'd like to try Philly in #1 but Rays look mojovated and Kazmir is nothing to sneeze at.
All I got for now.
Plays pending.
GL
-----------------
12-10 +5.33
ml: 6-5 +3.61
rl: 1-1 -0.22
1st5: 1-2 -1.82
totals: 1-0 +0.5
team totals: 0-1 -0.46
series: 3-1 +3.72
Still smarting from that Harden game #see-ya and Lester's first groan vs the Rays. Last year's playoffs were much better for me--smokin' until some Rox trash in the finale (couldn't resist the early lines but at least caught on quickly enough). Intensified my search for this finale but remain clueless early on.
==============================
presumed rotations:
Phil:
Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Blanton
TB:
Kazmir
Shields
Garza
Sonnanstine
pre-series prospectus:
1 phil 54%
2 TB 64%
3 Phil 55%
4 Phil 54%
5 Phil 70%
6 TB 65%
7 TB 62%
You may notice quite a swing in the home-away matches for Hamels/Kazmir (g#1 vs g#5). Not just the home-field edge swing but also compensated for Hamels slightly better work at home and Kazmir with the much better numbers at home. Duplicate matchup in g#2 and g#6 but I'm giving the Rays a slightly better edge coming back from Philadelphia then I gave them in game #2.
Limited batter vs pitcher matchups though you can certainly check them out online. Nothing within the same made me adjust the numbers much. I spent more time adjusting for home/away factors for the SP's, bullpens (only slightly) and offenses. Most of TB's arm prefer Tropicana save for Sonnanstine. Phils get the DH on the road but still have more of an edge, in that regard, at home, especially when TB meets a lefty. On that note, I'm still quite shocked at the Rays trouble with lefties this season as that was their strong suit last season--facing lefties. Early rounds saw TB do so-so work against Buehrle (driving the era up mostly due to the 8th inning), not having great success vs Danks, and then mashing Lester in his first go before really being stymied in the early going of game #7. I figure that they may struggle vs Hamels but Moyer has been shaky so far in the playoffs.
Anyways, based on the above numbers (subject to change slightly as things develop), I get the following results:
Phil in 4 5.774%
Phil in 5 17.378%
Phil in 6 11.945%
Phil in 7 12.295%
===============
Phillies W series 47.392%
Rays in 4 6.094%
Rays in 5 7.554%
Rays in 6 18.894%
Rays in 7 20.065%
===============
Rays W series 52.607%
Off by 1/1000'th of a percent as I rounded to three decimal places.
===============================
I'm not sure how much credence (sic?) to give the game numbers so I may have wasted my time coming up with the preceeding, but I know that this system works and spent due diligence adjusting for home/away factors, vs L/R numbers as well as considering recent production by both the hitters and the pitchers. Phillies layoff may hurt them but just considering last year's results--the Rox layoff and then see-ya--may not be the most indicative of available information. Even before plugging away at these numbers I was quite unsure what to expect from this series, though I was considering a Phillies series play.
Series possibilities look like this, if I'm not too far gone:
Phillies 47%(+132)+3
Rays 53%(-142)-6
Looks like a Phillies series play for me if anything, which is unlikley. I'm going to look for individual games to play and forego the possibility of worrying about future hedges.
Game #1 I'm looking at
Phillies 54%(-107)+2
Not tremendous value there, either.
Didn't stop me from pounding the Rays in game #7 but that was due to a now-(hopefully)-past who-gives a funk attitude and, fortunately, horseshoes prevailed.
Sorry for the uncertainty, at this present time.
Should be a whale of a series but I have no clue what to do with these opening lines.
NCAA football is the only thing working for me lately so I may stick with that until something reaches out and grabs me.
I'd like to try Philly in #1 but Rays look mojovated and Kazmir is nothing to sneeze at.
All I got for now.
Plays pending.
GL
