2010 previews

[EXTRAPOLATER]

a work in progress
just gonna lay down some thoughts to get psyched up for the coming mayhem

AL East

NY Yankees
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Starting rotation looks promising with Sabathia and Burnett likely winning 15-20 games each. Both are streaky--particularly A.J.--so riding them while hot is important. New acquisition Vazquez appears to doing fine even in his mid-30's; If he stays healthy then 17 or 18 wins is possible as he is no doubt pumped to be with a clear contender; he spent a year with the Yanks in '04 and, despite coming off of his high-K year (w/Expos), I don't think that he was as determined as he should be now to rock the BB world; not so easy to go NL-to-AL but he has experience in the league and had a solid 15-win campaign with the Chisox; 10-straight years of 10+ wins, coming in, and a career-high in wins (formerly 16 with Expos) is a good possibility; he was affordable early last season but, like w/C.C. and A.J., he will be expensive to back. Pettitte, Joba and Hughes will roundout the rotation somehow. Andy has experience but he is getting up there--teams that can hit lefties, particularly teams that have hit him previously, might be worth backing, or at least hopping on some overage. Joba is a totally unpredictable crapshot at this stage of his career; gotta see what he does early and see how the mid-relief is as he often doesn't survive into the late innings; his price tag, as with all Yanks games, will also be stiff. Hughes showed a lot last year in his 7 starts, finally showing some promise for his 1st-round selection; he keeps the ball in the park and can K his fair share of bats; turning only 24, come June, his best years are likely a few years off but this could be the year he starts to turn some heads. In short, the Yanks SP's have the potential to be extremely potent. Another 100-win season is quite conceivable, especially considering that their offense should be again be solid. Will get to that shortly, after perusing pen potential.

Longer than expected.
Must to be grabbing a brew before continuing.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Yanks pen won't suffer with 4-year-old Rivera closing. He's been brilliant the past couple of seasons and I recall antiques such as Eckersley being dominant despite reaching twilight baseball time. No problems here. Question will be the mid-relief, especially in games where Joba and, somewhat less so, Pettitte, are starting. Lefties include Marte, who is far from stellar and should be used infrequently, and Logan, who's resume is even less impressive. I'd be stunned if a lefty reliever wasn't a priority for the stripes sometime during '010. Righties are deeper, with David Robertson who should play a pivotal role with his great stuff, Aceves who is less dominant but decent in longer appearances, E.Ramirez who I am not confident in and Albaladejo who they would trade if they had some inside dirt on a G.M.
Based on the preceeding I would say that more of Pettitte's games will go over rather than under. Joba, unless some kind of transformation takes place--possible at his age--may see similar results. As mentioned, Burnett is extremely streaky and when he is off, and throwing too many pitches early (true throughout his career), then we could see some overs due to this pen. Likewise, when Burnett is hot I wouldn't go over even a 7. This pen is questionable barring the hit-man Mau and Robertson, so the Yanks are likely to see their share of overs this season, especially in the friendly confines.

The O should be obvious, but I'll briefly (I hope) comment after some relief.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New boy Granderson's average dropped a fair bit in '09 but his HR's exploded to 30. By no means a lock for comeback player of the year but he should get some juicy balls with Jeter up behind, not to mention Texeira and A-Rod following. On that note, 1-through-4 is going to be tough to beat for any MLB squad. Cano, as well, should be in his prime and 25 HR's and 204 hits in '09 suggest that the ceiling on this guy could be remarkable. Posada, N.Johnson, N.Swisher and Gardner are all way-down on the totem pole but even if one has a solid year then this squad will again put up great numbers. The bench looks like crap, IMO, but why pinch-hit for any of the starters anywho? Yanks over, when any of their SP's ares cold, though we'll see lots of 10's and 11's at the new Yanks stadium.

Pretty much impossible not to back these guys to take the division. Sorry Rays and 'Sox and (gasp!) my Jays, not to mention the tutOrioles. 100 wins is more likely than last season, IMO; if you remember, the Yanks faltered pretty bad early in '09...unlikely this year. Gonna be pricey to back them but the runlines might be sweet, especially with a hot starter going.

Dang...30 teams?!?!?...oh well, at least I have a good 30-days+ to get through this.
May be no benefit to any on-lookers, but it will help me to get mojofied for the 2,430 regular season games quickly approaching.

Hendrix bless the upcoming 4-baggers!

...chit...all four of the beers on my desk are empty?!...
only one cure
fridge

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Going to try to keep this simpler.
Might be point-form or Hendrix-knows-what.
As mentioned, mostly to get me in tune.
Will try to stick to gambling related commentation; lots of rah-rah sis boom bah previews av elsewhere on the net.

Boston Red Sox

SP's appear solid, at first glance.
Beckett may lose a little more velocity. He had some trouble keeping the ball in the park last year. Need some early evidence; spring will provide some. He'll be priced to the moon and I may fade if my suspicions of an off-year look true.
Lackey is majorly inconsistent. Not streaky, really, as he can be great and then stink. Note his crappy numbers pitching at Fenway.
Lester will become the true staff ace, if not this year then in a year or two. NL teams have no chance against him. He's gold at Fenway.
Dice-K a wildcard. Need to see what he brings early. Very streaky.
Not big on Bucholz. Fairly streaky as well. Can't go deep into games. Prime age for either a breakout year or a fadeaway career.
Wakefield is hit-or-miss. Some teams can't touch him while others devour. Overs look good, especially at home; he was 7-1 there last year but that was because the 'Sox sticks just smoked at home '09, and perpetually it seems.

Need to see how they come out of the gates.
Any floundering and this team will be an over-machine this season.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

BP

Only lost Saito in the offseason. BP should be sound. Was great 2 and 3 years ago, but only slightly above average '09.
Closer Papelbon still rocks, for a few more years. Blew spew in his last playoff appearance '09 but should earn his money again.
Middle relief lefties include a good Okajima and whatever other youngster shows something this spring.
Righty Daniel Bard should play a huge role--he's got game.
Delcarmen declining but decent.
Tazawa is release material.
R.Ramirez a solid contributor.

Need another lefty option but spring should put the pieces into place. 'Sox pen has been crucial during their resurgence.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

the sticks

Pick-ups include Scutaro, Hermida, Cameron, Beltre and Bill Hall. Cameron should provide some help--some pop--but beyond that they need Hermida to reach his lofty potential (possible coming to A.L.) or Beltre to majorly turn around his decline, also possible coming to friendlier confines.
Losing Jason Bay will offset any arrivals, barring a major turnaround by Beltre.

These guys were a zillion-times better hitting at home than the road. A little better vs L than R SP's, those inconsequential.

Need to see how Drew and Ortiz are performing. The other sticks should remain fairly consistent.

Will be pricey, early. 39-42 on the road in '09 and that winning % could drop in '10. Overs-a-plenty seems likely, at least if the sticks are going, i.e. Beltre and Ortiz, perhaps Hermida.

A distant 2nd in the AL East seems likely. 8 games behind NYY in '09. I'd play over that total for '10.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

TB Rays

SP's are risky as Shields is average at best, IMO, and Niemann looks like a blown early pick, though he has some surprisingly decent games. Garza still has a strong upside--if he keeps the HR's down then he'll have a solid year. Lefty Price has a huge upside but is likely a year or two away from his peak; he smokes at Tropicana, so far, but rarely survives even 7 innings. Wade Davis has potential and could be a bargain as the books will scoff him. Sonnanstine has never done it for me...fade or over-time.

This rotation can dream on about another Series appearance.
.500 ball, at best

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Bullpen was middle of the road last year and beyond the pickup of R.Soriano (who may be their best RP and should close) I don't see the middle relief being very worthy. Any short-duration SP's are going to see their share of overs, if the O is working, at least.

O

Longoria is the clear key. Needs some support. Crawford, Bartlett and Pena are decent. No key pick-ups in the off-season so unless Burrell has a stellar year then I don't see any improvements on O. Hit lefties a little better than R and, perpetually, hit way better at home.

Might be some value with Davis and Garza. Price will have his price, especially at home--have to see how he's looking early. I won't like many other situations, especially on the road. BP could be a major problem.

 

[bej0101]

nyy on the rl everyday should payout nicely..:toast: