While the data is cool in the regular season, it becomes something of value for the Home Run Derby. And when you pull that Statcast data together on the players in the Home Run Derby, and do some simulations, you get some odds on who will win.
And that?s what MLB Advanced Media did.
The media company of Major League Baseball used the home run data and simulated the Home Run Derby 10,000 times.
Based upon the simulation, Los Angeles Dodgers rookie outfielder Joc Pederson won nearly 2,500 of the 10,000 simulated HR Derbies (2,495, to be exact) or 25 percent of the time making him the odds on favorite to win tonight. Pederson was followed by three-time NL MVP Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels (won 2,279 out of 10,000 or 23 percent). He?s followed by Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs (19 percent chance of winning), Todd Frazier of the home town Cincinnati Reds (16 percent chance), Josh Donaldson of the Toronto Blue Jays (7 percent chance), Prince Fielder of the Texas Rangers (6 percent chance) and Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles and Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs tied with 2 percent odds of winning.
Player # Times Won Chance of Winning
Joc Pederson 2,495 25%
Albert Pujols 2,279 23%
Kris Bryant 1,879 19%
Todd Frazier 1,635 16%
Josh Donaldson 734 7%
Prince Fielder 599 6%
Manny Machado 182 2%
Anthony Rizzo 196 2%
