2017 Season Thread

[TLankford]

Plus the 5 turnovers made this look worse than the final score actually looked,,I agree especially after watching Clemson against Louisville. As a Bama fan we need help running the ball right now but hopefully we can iron that out. If Vandy defends the pass I agree on that one as well, but it is Vandy.:142smilie

Seeing the total for the bama game at 43.5 and spread being 18.5 the TT for Vandy should be around 13. With Bama getting a few of those injured LBs back this week and the fact that I think both sides will be running the clock I'm probably gonna hop on Vandy TT Under 13 if that's a number I can get. I would honestly like that more than Vandy +18.5 just because you never know if they'll have TOs that give Bama a short field once they get a DD lead

 

[TLankford]

Plays so far:

MSU +4.5 - should have jumped on this at 7.5. I still like the number getting more than a FG

UF -132

Auburn-Mizzou Under 60 - gonna lay off betting on us to cover a 3 score spread until Stidham gets an offensive TD in conference play. I do think our D is in the top 3 of the SEC and will keep Mizzou out of the endzone for the most part. I have serious doubt that we could put up enough to get this number in any kind of jeopardy

Arky-A&M - laying off this game altogether even though the total came out at 55 like I thought. Too hard to read these teams right now the way they've been playing.

Bama - Vandy - laying off of the spread here as well. Will wait for Team Totals to come out and if the Vandy TT is 13+ I'm taking the Under

 

[jas4bama]

Auburn-Mizzou Under 60 - gonna lay off betting on us to cover a 3 score spread until Stidham gets an offensive TD in conference play. I do think our D is in the top 3 of the SEC and will keep Mizzou out of the endzone for the most part. I have serious doubt that we could put up enough to get this number in any kind of jeopardy



Bama - Vandy - laying off of the spread here as well. Will wait for Team Totals to come out and if the Vandy TT is 13+ I'm taking the Under

Agree again,,Just can't figure out how Gus can't have a gazillion star QB in his system that highlights the QB.

And all Vandy does is run run run and Bama won't open it up like Kiffin did. I see a 21-3 type game for both state schools,,NOW,,as soon as I say that both schools will win 56-55.:lol:

 

[TLankford]

Vandy TT Under 12

Mizzou TT Under 21.5

2H A&M +0.5 (-140)

 

[TLankford]

Well we learned that MSU and Vandy are who we thought they were which doesn't bode well for LSU or Kansas State. Gators gonna keep rabbit's footin around this year I suppose... not sure how you just don't cover a WR at all TWICE in one game but hey at least UK has basketball.

MSU +4.5 L

UF -132 W

Auburn-Mizzou Under 60 L Mizzou's idiotic coaching lost this one for me

Vandy TT Under 12 W

Mizzou TT Under 21.5 W

2H A&M +0.5 (-140) W

4-2 on the week. 10-5 YTD.

Initial thoughts/leans for this week:

Texas -5.5 over ISU - seen plenty of teams get burned in Ames just think Herman may have this team headed in the right direction after that embarrassing week 1

USC -175 over Wazzou - would prefer to just get this at -2.5 after buying a hook but it's at 3.5 right now. Wouldn't doubt if it goes up but I don't think USC loses a game until possibly the PAC12CG. They've already played 3 of the tougher games on their schedule. Should be able to run at will vs. WSU.

A&M -10 over South Carolina - South Cack is a bad football team. Only way they keep this game competitive is if Sumlin shows up drunk on gameday, which i'm not ruling out.

UGA -7 over UT - The UGA Defense is legit. Been high on them all year and the offense looked good vs a pretty sound defense Saturday. Meanwhile UT collapsed vs. UF 2 weeks ago and then struggled with UMass last weekend. Two programs headed in opposite directions this season. Georgia should head into Atlanta for the SECCG at 12-0 or 11-1 depending on what happens on 11/11.

MSU +9.5 at Auburn - Not gonna overreact to us dismantling Mizzou that team is garbage and very poorly coached. We simply don't blow out above average teams, especially ones with good QB play. Would prefer to get this one at 10+ and may look at the total for a possible Under play if it's in the 50s.

Alabama -27.5 over OMiss - Bama will have 250 yards rushing in this game and OMiss just doesn't have a running game whatsoever to give Patterson a chance. Bama can drop 7-8 into coverage all game. There's not many teams in the SEC that I would feel comfortable taking +28 against Bama at this point.

 

[Old School]

you do great work....:0008

 

[TLankford]

you do great work....:0008

Thanks brother
:toast:

Florida kids Callaway, Scarlett and Johnson officially handed 3rd degree felonies. Callways 3rd strike at least so he's gotta be gone. Scarlett probably too. Haven't heard one way or the other on Johnson.

Also announced today that Luke Del Rio will be starting vs. Vandy

Will have to look into Vandy's defense for injuries because it seemed like they were dropping like flies in the Bama game. If everyone is healthy I don't see why Vandy couldn't keep this one competitive considering the shit show UF has been so far this year. Yea they've won the last two games but moreso because of their opponents' incompetence. Not sure they've shown anything that would make me think they could beat any average P5 school by double-digits. Also will look at the Under on this one if it's in the mid 40s

 

[#cruncher]

Thanks brother
:toast:

Florida kids Callaway, Scarlett and Johnson officially handed 3rd degree felonies. Callways 3rd strike at least so he's gotta be gone. Scarlett probably too. Haven't heard one way or the other on Johnson.

Also announced today that Luke Del Rio will be starting vs. Vandy

Will have to look into Vandy's defense for injuries because it seemed like they were dropping like flies in the Bama game. If everyone is healthy I don't see why Vandy couldn't keep this one competitive considering the shit show UF has been so far this year. Yea they've won the last two games but moreso because of their opponents' incompetence. Not sure they've shown anything that would make me think they could beat any average P5 school by double-digits. Also will look at the Under on this one if it's in the mid 40s

Exactly.

 

[TLankford]

Put in a few and changing directions on a couple:

Thursday Parlay:
GB -350 / Texas -200 (-108)


USC -3 (-130) over Wazzou

Vandy +10 over UF

Saturday Moneyline Parlay:
A&M -320 / Georgia -310 (-135)

Waiting on team totals for:

Auburn -MSU - Looked into it and think there is a chance we can win by DDs. A halfway decent chance actually. Not strong enough that I'd actually bet on it... I don't like betting on our offense under Gus :facepalm: I do like betting on our defense. Looking at the spread (-9) and total (53) the Mississippi State TT should come out at 21.5-22. If I can get 21 or better I'm taking the UNDER. We held them under 300 yards in starkville last year. We held Clemson under 300 yards in JHS a few weeks ago, and I think either they or Bama are the best offense we see this year. If MSU puts up more than 21, I'd honestly think they may win straight up.

Bama - OMiss - still leaning towards Bama -28 but depending on if OMiss TT comes out at 17 or better or Bama's comes out at 42 or better, I'd consider taking one of those UNDERs instead. I doubt OMiss goes into Tuscaloosa at night and puts up more than 14

 

[ejthree]

Put in a few and changing directions on a couple:

Thursday Parlay:
GB -350 / Texas -200 (-108)


USC -3 (-130) over Wazzou

Vandy +10 over UF

Saturday Moneyline Parlay:
A&M -320 / Georgia -310 (-135)

Waiting on team totals for:

Auburn -MSU - Looked into it and think there is a chance we can win by DDs. A halfway decent chance actually. Not strong enough that I'd actually bet on it... I don't like betting on our offense under Gus :facepalm: I do like betting on our defense. Looking at the spread (-9) and total (53) the Mississippi State TT should come out at 21.5-22. If I can get 21 or better I'm taking the UNDER. We held them under 300 yards in starkville last year. We held Clemson under 300 yards in JHS a few weeks ago, and I think either they or Bama are the best offense we see this year. If MSU puts up more than 21, I'd honestly think they may win straight up.

Bama - OMiss - still leaning towards Bama -28 but depending on if OMiss TT comes out at 17 or better or Bama's comes out at 42 or better, I'd consider taking one of those UNDERs instead. I doubt OMiss goes into Tuscaloosa at night and puts up more than 14

Love Vandy...I give them a shot at winning outright but only thing that scares me is off the pounding Bama put on them...Generally teams do not fair well after playing Bama...GL luck with your play...I will be pulling for ya...

 

[TLankford]

Duke +6.5 (-123) over Miami

Duke looks to be solid again this year. Miami has FSU on deck and "it's duke" is hard to avoid in situations like this. Probably will put some peanuts on the +200 ML as well. Miami didn't look that great in their only real game this year

 

[TLankford]

0-3 betting on/against Duke this year. officially done with their games for 2017 :mj15:

may have some halftime bets if i remember to post. for now:

Mississippi State Team Total Under 21.5 vs Auburn

Ole Miss Team Total Under 14.5 vs Bama

:0003

 

[TLankford]

GB -350 / Texas -200 (-108) W
USC -3 (-130) over Wazzou L
Vandy +10 over UF L
A&M -320 / Georgia -310 (-135) W
Mississippi State Team Total Under 21.5 vs Auburn W
Ole Miss Team Total Under 14.5 vs Bama W

3-2 on the week. Biggest bets the last two weeks have been Auburn/Bama opponent Team Totals going Under and also have parlayed them both weeks. Normally do that with my two favorite plays - Straight, Straight, Parlay... all or nothing strategy.

13-7 YTD

 

[TLankford]

Got a music festival in town from Thursday-Sunday so gonna get in all plays on Wendesday. At first glance this week:

Clemson -21.5 over Wake - Wake coming off blowing a potentially big win for their program. Clemson I don't really see having a down game and they have Cuse on deck so not a look ahead. Talent alone should get them 24pt+ win

Arkansas -135 over South Carolina - said it probably the last 2.5 years that Arkansas is never as bad as their record. They lose to the people they're supposed to lose to and in blowout fashion normally. Teams they're actually better than they have beaten most of the time under Bielema. Just betting on the better team to win this game.

Georgia -16.5 over Vandy - Still riding the UGA Defense train. Vandy should have absolutely zero success on offense (Team Total bet may be the play instead, will wait on lines). Line is just high enough to where Vegas will tempt people into thinking UGA has a let down game. Shouldn't happen though.

Kentucky -11.5 over Mizzou - Fading Mizzou because I think they're one of the worst P5 teams in the country. And Kentucky is in win or go home mode for the SEC East race. They should be pumped enough to take them to the woodshed in a night home game

Alabama-A&M/Auburn-OMiss - I'm gonna wait around for team totals on this one to see if the line game is still gonna net some good numbers. Honesty don't see either A&M/OMiss getting too far into double-digits.

A&M headline on ESPN "Time to start paying attention to Texas A&M" :0002 yea they beat Arkansas and South Carolina by 7 each. It's time to start paying attention to them if you want to see who Bama is gonna embarrass on the field this week. Mond vs. Bama D is just not gonna be a fun time for A&M fans, especially since shutting down A&M run game is not hard to do in the first place. Will take TT Under at anything better than 10

OMiss - Given the end of 2016 season and this offseason's ridiculousness I don't think anyone's that terribly surprised that Ole Miss is a dumpster fire this year. Was kinda cute to see them get excited about Shea Patterson after his dominating performances vs. USA and UT Martin :142smilie They're just bad all around. Auburn Defense continues to look like the best one we've had since probably 2004. Up there with UGA and Bama for top in the SEC. Will take this TT Under at anything better than 14

 

[#cruncher]

Got a music festival in town from Thursday-Sunday so gonna get in all plays on Wendesday. At first glance this week:

Clemson -21.5 over Wake - Wake coming off blowing a potentially big win for their program. Clemson I don't really see having a down game and they have Cuse on deck so not a look ahead. Talent alone should get them 24pt+ win

Arkansas -135 over South Carolina - said it probably the last 2.5 years that Arkansas is never as bad as their record. They lose to the people they're supposed to lose to and in blowout fashion normally. Teams they're actually better than they have beaten most of the time under Bielema. Just betting on the better team to win this game.

Georgia -16.5 over Vandy - Still riding the UGA Defense train. Vandy should have absolutely zero success on offense (Team Total bet may be the play instead, will wait on lines). Line is just high enough to where Vegas will tempt people into thinking UGA has a let down game. Shouldn't happen though.

Kentucky -11.5 over Mizzou - Fading Mizzou because I think they're one of the worst P5 teams in the country. And Kentucky is in win or go home mode for the SEC East race. They should be pumped enough to take them to the woodshed in a night home game

Alabama-A&M/Auburn-OMiss - I'm gonna wait around for team totals on this one to see if the line game is still gonna net some good numbers. Honesty don't see either A&M/OMiss getting too far into double-digits.

A&M headline on ESPN "Time to start paying attention to Texas A&M" :0002 yea they beat Arkansas and South Carolina by 7 each. It's time to start paying attention to them if you want to see who Bama is gonna embarrass on the field this week. Mond vs. Bama D is just not gonna be a fun time for A&M fans, especially since shutting down A&M run game is not hard to do in the first place. Will take TT Under at anything better than 10

OMiss - Given the end of 2016 season and this offseason's ridiculousness I don't think anyone's that terribly surprised that Ole Miss is a dumpster fire this year. Was kinda cute to see them get excited about Shea Patterson after his dominating performances vs. USA and UT Martin :142smilie They're just bad all around. Auburn Defense continues to look like the best one we've had since probably 2004. Up there with UGA and Bama for top in the SEC. Will take this TT Under at anything better than 14

If I did my math right team totals for Alabama game should be around 41-16, and 39-18 for Auburn game.

 

[TLankford]

If I did my math right team totals for Alabama game should be around 41-16, and 39-18 for Auburn game.

Those numbers would be very pleasing and I'd be good betting on them. Hopefully can get around to posting whether or not I played them tomorrow/saturday but it's gonna be a hectic weekend and have a few friends in town staying with me.

Laying off the Clemson game and Arkansas-USCe. Good friend that's a pretty solid capper has been paying more attention to WF than me and says they're not that bad this year and could keep it close so better to lay off and find a better game. Arky-USCe I am off because of Arkansas collapsing in the 2H of most their games this year. I think it will be close and if I had to bet I still think Arky wins. Just not worth putting money on.
Trying out the whole "disciplined gambling" thing for once :0003

Plays so far:

Florida -130 over LSU. Betting on the team that at least somewhat has their shit together. Don't know who caught Coach O's rants yesterday on sports radio but goddamn they were great

Texas -170 over KSU. Night home game so I don't see this being a look ahead for the RR next week. That Vandy loss for KSU is looking worse and worse ever week.

Miami -145 over FSU. Didn't buy into the hype that was FSU in preseason even when they had Francois. He wasn't very good last year and I don't think Jimbo magically turns everyone in to NFL QBs. Blackman has been mediocre so far. Their D is pretty good but not near last years team. Cook looking tougher to replace every week. On the other side is a very balanced Miami team and the coaching matchup I'd say is close to a wash. maybe worried a little bit about the Richt WTF loss factor but still playing it

Will be playing these when I see them. As stated above may not be able to come back and put the actual numbers, but whatever the line is will be used for record keeping. I am 100% playing all 3 whenever I see them:

A&M Team Total Under should be 14.5
Ole Miss Team Total Under should be 17.5-18
Vandy Team Total Under should be 11.5-12

opcorn2

 

[TLankford]

Vandy TT Under 12.5
Ole Miss TT Under 17
A&M TT Under 15.5


all three straight and then parlayed together

 

[TLankford]

2-4 on the week
15-11 YTD

Pretty pissed about losing the 3 team totals late in the game. Ole Miss and Vandy scoring meaningless TDs in garbage time vs. 2nd string especially. Not sure what happened with Bama since I didn't get to see that one but saw the box score they back doored that one with 17 seconds left :facepalm:

Will have to rethink the Team Totals in these large line games with 2nd string defenses and late game TDs being a possibility once the games are out of reach

at first glance this week:

Texas +7.5 vs. OU - game always tends to be pretty close most of the time. Herman pretty good ATS as a dog

Alabama -30 vs. Arkansas - one of the cases when I don't think Arkansas has a chance to backdoor. They have been truly pitiful in the 2H this year

A&M +137 vs. Florida - honestly just see this as a value play since Florida is shit. A&M is shit too but I like the payout

Auburn -6 vs. LSU - Night time in the swamp hasn't been kind to us this millennium but this LSU team is pretty bad. Our DL should have a big night vs. their OL

Don't really do teasers very often but teasing AU down to a pick/+1 and either Bama or UGA down to -23 look pretty good

 

[#cruncher]

2-4 on the week
15-11 YTD

Pretty pissed about losing the 3 team totals late in the game. Ole Miss and Vandy scoring meaningless TDs in garbage time vs. 2nd string especially. Not sure what happened with Bama since I didn't get to see that one but saw the box score they back doored that one with 17 seconds left :facepalm:

Will have to rethink the Team Totals in these large line games with 2nd string defenses and late game TDs being a possibility once the games are out of reach

at first glance this week:

Texas +7.5 vs. OU - game always tends to be pretty close most of the time. Herman pretty good ATS as a dog

Alabama -30 vs. Arkansas - one of the cases when I don't think Arkansas has a chance to backdoor. They have been truly pitiful in the 2H this year

A&M +137 vs. Florida - honestly just see this as a value play since Florida is shit. A&M is shit too but I like the payout

Auburn -6 vs. LSU - Night time in the swamp hasn't been kind to us this millennium but this LSU team is pretty bad. Our DL should have a big night vs. their OL

Don't really do teasers very often but teasing AU down to a pick/+1 and either Bama or UGA down to -23 look pretty good

Got Auburn already but would like to put them in a teaser myself, just not sure who to put them with.

 

[TLankford]

Got Auburn already but would like to put them in a teaser myself, just not sure who to put them with.

Looked for a few minutes yesterday and settled on:

TCU +1.5 / Auburn -0.5 6-pt teaser