2019 College Football

[BASON]

Love the start of college football season!!

Similar to last year I will try to do larger write-ups on Maryland and Navy games every week and throw in some others I feel good about with a focus on getting early lines in our favor.

Week one is always extremely hard since it is tough to gauge many of the teams. For that reason I tend to focus on dogs that grab my attention.

One play that I already have in is:

Oregon State +14.5

Purely a gut reaction to the line. In general, I am not a hug fan of Pac-12 football, but this is a lot of points to give to the home team.

Others I am watching right now:

BYU - line just keeps rising. Tough not to grab a TD+ in this rivalry
Northwestern - hoping to get a TD+ in this one also
Coastal Carolina+
Liberty+

Need to do some research on the MAC. On the surface, Toledo+ and Miami OH+ look tempting.

Hard not to play Bama in the FH in every game this year. They went 10-3 ATS last year, so I expect the lines to overreact even more than they did last year. The over may be the play against Duke.

I see Maryland at -29.5/65 against Howard. Still working on this game and will have more on it later in the week. Both teams with new coaches. May look like a mis-match on paper, but this is a very unpredictable Howard team that can score points. Remember, they won at UNLV in 2017 as 45 point dogs which I believe is the biggest point spread upset in the history of the game. Cam Newton's little brother is their QB and he can play.

 

[hawkeye]

I agree Week 1 is tuff to cap--gl

 

[BASON]

Add this late last night:

BYU +7 -120

Just too many points is what should be a very tight game.

 

[BASON]

Well it could have been a tight game is BYU did not throw 2 pick six's. Neither team looked that great to me. Oh, and how bad did UCLA look? Not sure what Chip and his staff did all summer, but their QB looked about as bad as a Division 1 QB can look. I do not see him getting much better. Going to be a rough year for UCLA.

Only Oregon State as previously played for tonight.

Maryland write up coming.

 

[BASON]

Maryland vs Howard
-29.5/65.5

The Locksley Era opens with a game against local MEAC team Howard University. Howard is not known for its football, but they are led at QB by Caylan Newton, the younger brother of Cam Newton and he is a player. His biggest problem though is his accuracy as he threw 17 interceptions last year. The Howard offense averaged 34 PPG last season and over 470 yards per game. Of course, much of this is against MEAC competition which is not so great. But, they have great speed on offense at the RB and WR position, with Parsons and Ezzard, respectively. Defense is another story. They were terrible last year and gave up 448 PPG against some very mediocre competition. Whole new coaching staff has come in and I expect them to try to adopt a Michigan type system. Ron Prince, the old K State coach, is the new head man and he was an analyst with the Michigan program prior to coming to Howard and he brought his DC with him.

The Maryland story was well documented last year and now Locksley comes in from his recent success at Alabama. The man can recruit and I am expecting him to get this program back to where it belongs. Maryland has had issues at QB for years due to injuries despite bringing in some top talent the last two years. Hill has left the program for TN, Pigrome stayed and LeGendre came in as a 4 star recruit. The big news is that they got Josh Johnson to transfer in from Virginia Tech where he has some success before getting injured last year. He is the better passer and has beaten out Pigrome for the job. Maryland also has some depth behind Pigrome with DeSue and LeGendre. Jackson's play is going to be key to this Maryland offense which will look a whole lot like Alabama. If he can pass the ball they should have a dynamic offense, because they are loaded at RB. I said it a lot last year and will repeat it again this year, Anthony McFarland is an absolute stud and needs to carry the ball a lot for Maryland to be successful. He has the added benefit of getting his DeMatha high school coach back as he is now the RB coach for Maryland. The offense is going to feature McFarland running and catching the ball, just think of how Alabama featured their backs. They also have Leake and Fleet -Davis so they are very strong at that position and Lorenzo Harrison is back after an injury. I expect big things for McFarland this year as I think he is one of the top backs in the country. The WR corps took a hit when Jones tore his ACL but they have some depth there and have 2 very good tight ends. OL is still a question at a LT, but I think they unit as a whole is good. They are going to have to protect the QB a whole lot better this year for the offense to be successful.

Maryland's defense kept them in a lot of games last year since Canada's offense refused to run the ball and keep them off the field. They added Shaq Smith from Clemson who should be the star of the strong and experienced LB corps and they remain strong in secondary led by safety Antoine Brooks and 2 senior CBs with experience. Keep on eye on freshman CB Deonte Banks as he has been turning heads in camp. The real concern on the defensive side of the ball is the defensive line where there is not much experience. I think they will be able to defend the run but the pass rush is the real concern. I expect to see them rotate some players in the first game to try to settle on their best players for conference play.

There is no doubt that Maryland is the better team and Locksley is going to want to make a statement in his first game. Maryland beat Texas as big dogs in the first game the last two years, so they have a history of playing well in the first game. I do not think Howard will be intimidated though and they see this as a great showcase game for them. Two years ago they beat UNLV as a 45 point underdog which is the biggest upset in NCAA history. I think Newton will be able to create some plays and score a few points, as such:

Maryland Ov 65.5

Howard's defense is just what a new Maryland offense needs and I expect Maryland and McFarland to run all over them for some big yardage. I also think Howard has enough speed and offensive talent to put some points on the board for the game to go over and maybe a back door cover.

 

[BASON]

Added play for tonight:

Army -12 FH - Think they come out and jump on Rice and then ride it out in the second half.

 

[BASON]

So far, I suck, but this is almost always how the first week goes for me. I put my three team tease for the week in this morning:

BC+14.5
LA Laf +29
Coastal Car+16.5

All three solid home dogs in my opinion.

Will see how soccer goes this morning as well as the MD game before I consider posting anymore today.

No write up for Navy game as I like to see how their first game goes before digging in.

And I do like Bama in the FH but -21 is a tough number.

 

[lowell]

Terps up 72-0 w 5 minutes left in 3rd qtr. nice call!

 

[BASON]

Thanks, not exactly what I expected. Simply men against boys in this one. Was just a disaster for Howard all around. They had to take Newton out early just to make sure he didn't get hurt. MD could have easily scored over 100. Makes it tough to gauge how good they are, but they looked like a team that will compete. Nice to see a game where they did not have over 10+ penalties after last year.

 

[Keith 1]

Nice call Bason. I always tail your Terps plays :0074

 

[BASON]

Thanks Keith, hopefully another winner this week!

Some early lines that caught my eye

Maryland +3
ODU+28.5
Cincy+17
LSU-4.5
Hawaii -4.5

Nothing bet yet, but a couple of these are tempting. By no means do I see Oregon State winning or staying that close in Hawaii. Hawaii should put up 50 on them and will certainly be a play. I think Cincy will give Ohio State a game. They are well coached and a solid defensive team. I am not buying the TX hype but was hoping for a lower opening line. Va Tech did not look very great offensively last week, and while ODU struggled at home, they will be up for this game. Obviously more on MD later, but I thought the game would at least open at Even.

 

[Junkyarddog]

Thanks Keith, hopefully another winner this week!

Some early lines that caught my eye

Maryland +3
ODU+28.5
Cincy+17
LSU-4.5
Hawaii -4.5

Nothing bet yet, but a couple of these are tempting. By no means do I see Oregon State winning or staying that close in Hawaii. Hawaii should put up 50 on them and will certainly be a play. I think Cincy will give Ohio State a game. They are well coached and a solid defensive team. I am not buying the TX hype but was hoping for a lower opening line. Va Tech did not look very great offensively last week, and while ODU struggled at home, they will be up for this game. Obviously more on MD later, but I thought the game would at least open at Even.

I see that you are buying into the Maryland hype. I do not give them much of a chance against the #2 team in the ACC.

 

[BASON]

Good luck with that Syracuse play!!

 

[Junkyarddog]

Good luck with that Syracuse play!!

TY. I am really looking forward to the LSU-Texas game. Someone will be eliminated from consideration into the Final Four. It is too bad that they are playing this game now. I saw this as a possible match up in the Sugar Bowl but not now.

 

[BASON]

Yup, it is definitely a game I am looking forward to. It is a huge game for Texas. Third year into Herman's tenure and they need to prove they are a top 10 team. Big for recruiting and alumni support. Herman as a dog is 13-2-1 ATS as a head coach with 10 outright wins but I am not sure Ehlinger can carry this team to victory. I think there is a reason this line is where it is. I will dig into it a little deeper and keep an eye on the line, but my gut tells me LSU wins.

 

[BASON]

I put this in last night:

Hawaii -5 -120

Yes, I know it is up in most places right now and I would still play at -6. Hawaii is going to throw it all over them. I really see them winning this by more than a TD.

All the lines except ODU have moved against me so far. I will admit that I put some MD+3 (Maryland is now favored!) money in, but I will post it at current lines when I do the write-up for the game. Kind of regretting not hitting LSU right away but will wait to see if it comes down a little.

 

[bryanz]

sry or MD .. from the hip. who it ??

 

[BASON]

Right now I say MD, think they are even teams and MD at home

 

[bryanz]

Right now I say MD, think they are even teams and MD at home

Michael Locksley : Record as a Head Coach 4 - 31 ....:142smilie

 

[BASON]

Yeah, kind of a worthless stat given all his head coaching experience was at New Mexico which was a poor decision and ended up a complete and utter disaster. Have to give him some credit. He left Maryland, took a massive pay cut and went to Alabama to learn from Saban. He proved his mettle at Alabama and could have had his pick of many head coaching jobs, but he came back to MD. He can recruit with the best of them, and with the unreal facilities that MD now has, I certainly expect him to be successful. He is in the toughest (maybe second) division in college football. Having Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State in your division is brutal and means you better have a tough physical team. This week should be very telling.

More to come.