2025 French Open

[Smitty]

ah, finally. the only major played on the best surface (for wagering) in the world.

just took a glance at the first round. a few quick thoughts.

jarry may be worth a shot as a huge dog (+350) against fils.

djere is really good on clay and is worth a look against de minaur at +250.

i was looking forward to a decent run by muller... and he drew mensik in the first round. should be a really good match between two youngsters.

hurkacz vs fonseca is another really interesting matchup.

and, of course, the french open just isn't the same without ZZ.

 

[kickserv]

ah, finally. the only major played on the best surface (for wagering) in the world.


and, of course, the french open just isn't the same without ZZ.

1. ummm clay is not the best for ANYTHING

2. Nice to see ZZ Top playing doubles.

 

[Smitty]

Nice to see ZZ Top playing doubles.

agreed

 

[Smitty]

kick, i'd love to hear your thoughts on this. katie boulter has been absolutely terrible on clay. easy bet-against. suddenly she dropped into a 125-level event and she won, beating a few capable opponents along the way, although the last 3 matches all took her 3 sets.

is she suddenly improved on clay? or do you think that's more of a fluke than anything else? her first round opponent, carole monnet, is interesting. she plays a ton of clay court matches, and has just reached the semis of consecutive 75-level events. oh, and she's french. so the 30 people in the stands should be almost all rooting for her.

i'm definitely going to play monnet to win a set at +150. and, really, any time you think someone has a good chance of taking a set in a best-of-3 match, it's worth taking a shot at +450 to win the match.

any thoughts? can someone really just flip a switch and suddenly be comfortable on clay?

 

[kickserv]

i'm definitely going to play monnet to win a set at +150. and, really, any time you think someone has a good chance of taking a set in a best-of-3 match, it's worth taking a shot at +450 to win the match.

can someone really just flip a switch and suddenly be comfortable on clay?

Agreed, worth taking a shot at the +450 odds, and the +1.5 sets, this is one of those spots on the women's side where one can take a shot at the big underdog.

and to answer that other question.....nope

 

[Smitty]

Agreed, worth taking a shot at the +450 odds, and the +1.5 sets, this is one of those spots on the women's side where one can take a shot at the big underdog.

and to answer that other question.....nope

thank you. that's what i'm thinking. not sure if monnet's the one to knock out boulter, but feels like she's worth a shot.

 

[Smitty]

ok, time to get stupid.


comesana/busta over 38.5 games (-110) 5.5 to win 5. just feels like a 5-set match.
bergs (+100) 2 to win 2
j cerundolo (-120) 4.8 to win 4
tirante (+110) 2 to win 2.2
sonego (+120) 2 to win 2.4
parlay navone/gigante (+125) 2 to win 2.5
parlay navone/danilovic (+150) 6 to win 9
parlay navone/comesana/danilovic (+265) 2 to win 5.3
fuck it, i parlayed these guys in the qualies, let's do it once more. tirante/gigante (+215) 2 to win 4.3

siegemund (+125) 2 to win 2.5
lys win a set (-135) 5.4 to win 4
arango (+125) 2 to win 2.5
blinkova (+110) 2 to win 2.2
stojanovic win a set (+150) 2 to win 3
stojanovic +5.5 games (+105) 2 to win 2.1
danilovic (-150) 6 to win 4. starting in 2022, olga won 1 match at roland garros, then 2 matches in 2023, then 3 matches last year. clearly she is destined to reach the quarters this year.

parlay mboko in straight sets with teichmann (+150) 4 to win 6

and the match is monday, but the line on boulter is dropping quite a bit, so i'm grabbing this now...

monnet to win a set (+105) 8 to win 8.4
monnet (+290) 4 to win 11.6

finally wrapping this up just a few hours before they begin play.