2025 French Open

[Smitty]

ah, finally. the only major played on the best surface (for wagering) in the world.

just took a glance at the first round. a few quick thoughts.

jarry may be worth a shot as a huge dog (+350) against fils.

djere is really good on clay and is worth a look against de minaur at +250.

i was looking forward to a decent run by muller... and he drew mensik in the first round. should be a really good match between two youngsters.

hurkacz vs fonseca is another really interesting matchup.

and, of course, the french open just isn't the same without ZZ.

 

[kickserv]

ah, finally. the only major played on the best surface (for wagering) in the world.


and, of course, the french open just isn't the same without ZZ.

1. ummm clay is not the best for ANYTHING

2. Nice to see ZZ Top playing doubles.

 

[Smitty]

Nice to see ZZ Top playing doubles.

agreed

 

[Smitty]

kick, i'd love to hear your thoughts on this. katie boulter has been absolutely terrible on clay. easy bet-against. suddenly she dropped into a 125-level event and she won, beating a few capable opponents along the way, although the last 3 matches all took her 3 sets.

is she suddenly improved on clay? or do you think that's more of a fluke than anything else? her first round opponent, carole monnet, is interesting. she plays a ton of clay court matches, and has just reached the semis of consecutive 75-level events. oh, and she's french. so the 30 people in the stands should be almost all rooting for her.

i'm definitely going to play monnet to win a set at +150. and, really, any time you think someone has a good chance of taking a set in a best-of-3 match, it's worth taking a shot at +450 to win the match.

any thoughts? can someone really just flip a switch and suddenly be comfortable on clay?

 

[kickserv]

i'm definitely going to play monnet to win a set at +150. and, really, any time you think someone has a good chance of taking a set in a best-of-3 match, it's worth taking a shot at +450 to win the match.

can someone really just flip a switch and suddenly be comfortable on clay?

Agreed, worth taking a shot at the +450 odds, and the +1.5 sets, this is one of those spots on the women's side where one can take a shot at the big underdog.

and to answer that other question.....nope

 

[Smitty]

Agreed, worth taking a shot at the +450 odds, and the +1.5 sets, this is one of those spots on the women's side where one can take a shot at the big underdog.

and to answer that other question.....nope

thank you. that's what i'm thinking. not sure if monnet's the one to knock out boulter, but feels like she's worth a shot.

 

[Smitty]

ok, time to get stupid.


comesana/busta over 38.5 games (-110) 5.5 to win 5. just feels like a 5-set match.
bergs (+100) 2 to win 2
j cerundolo (-120) 4.8 to win 4
tirante (+110) 2 to win 2.2
sonego (+120) 2 to win 2.4
parlay navone/gigante (+125) 2 to win 2.5
parlay navone/danilovic (+150) 6 to win 9
parlay navone/comesana/danilovic (+265) 2 to win 5.3
fuck it, i parlayed these guys in the qualies, let's do it once more. tirante/gigante (+215) 2 to win 4.3

siegemund (+125) 2 to win 2.5
lys win a set (-135) 5.4 to win 4
arango (+125) 2 to win 2.5
blinkova (+110) 2 to win 2.2
stojanovic win a set (+150) 2 to win 3
stojanovic +5.5 games (+105) 2 to win 2.1
danilovic (-150) 6 to win 4. starting in 2022, olga won 1 match at roland garros, then 2 matches in 2023, then 3 matches last year. clearly she is destined to reach the quarters this year.

parlay mboko in straight sets with teichmann (+150) 4 to win 6

and the match is monday, but the line on boulter is dropping quite a bit, so i'm grabbing this now...

monnet to win a set (+105) 8 to win 8.4
monnet (+290) 4 to win 11.6

finally wrapping this up just a few hours before they begin play.

 

[Smitty]

betting way too much, considering how little i like the day 2 card. but here goes...

altmaier/fritz over 37.5 games (-115) 2.3 to win 2
altmaier +5.5 games (-130) 2.6 to win 2
ofner/struff over 37.5 (-120) 2.4 to win 2
ofner/struff tiebreak (-130) 2.6 to win 2
Bu (+125) 2 to win 2.5
jarry win a set (-140) 2.8 to win 2
jarry (+475) 1 to win 4.8

parlay: tsitsipas/altmaier win a set/lehecka/fearnley (+200) 2 to win 4

jessica bouzas maneiro win a set (+125) 2 to win 2.5
pera (-165) 6.6 to win 4. garcia's last french open, but pera is just too good on clay.
korpatsch (-115) 2.3 to win 2
xinyu wang (+210) 1 to win 2.1
wang win a set (-125) 2.5 to win 2
wang +4.5 games (-125) 2.5 to win 2
sherif (+160) 2 to win 3.2
sherif 1st set (+140) 2 to win 2.8
barbara krejčíková vs tatjana maria... very interesting match that i want to bet, but can't figure out what to do with. maria has lost in the first round the last 5 times she's played here. krejčíková won this tournament in 2021. easy peasy, right? maria hasn't won a set here since 2018. HOWEVER... krejčíková just played her first tournament in 6 months and, not surprisingly, lost in the first round. it's so tempting to take maria at +350. ok, fuck it. let's try... maria first set +2.5 games (-125, 2.5 to win 2), maria first set (+270, 2 to win 5.4).
kessler (+140) 2 to win 2.8. 100% betting against ruse. kessler is awful on the clay, but i have to take +140 against a player (ruse) who has made the main draw here once (in 2022) and only won 4 games.
cocciaretto (+110) 2 to win 2.2

monnet is now down to +235. fuck it, let's do this...

monnet first set (+160) 4 to win 6.4

day one:
7-8 +12.5

 

[kickserv]

day one:
7-8 +12.5

 

[Smitty]

day 2
13-10 +20.9

 

[kickserv]

day 2
13-10 +20.9

 

[Smitty]

day 3

men
djere win 2 sets (+150) 2 to win 3. i'm probably overvaluing djere, but i really like him on clay.
de jong/passaro over 36.5 games (-125) 5 to win 4. this was -110 a few hours ago. oh well. this may be the best match that nobody will watch.
quinn 1st set (+150) 2 to win 3
quinn 2nd set (+150) 2 to win 3. i think quinn gets one here, and this seems like a better option that laying -250 for him to win one.
quinn +5.5 (-130) 2.6 to win 2.
muller/mensik tiebreak (-110) 4.4 to win 4.
muller +5.5 (-140) 5.6 to win 4
muller/mensik over 36.5 games (-120) 2.4 to win 2
herbert/bonzi over 37.5 games (-125) 5 to win 4. 2 older frenchmen... gonna be a battle
hurkacz/fonseca over 39.5 games (-115) 4.6 to win 4
hurkacz/fonseca tiebreak (-175) 3.5 to win 2
hurkacz (+100) 4 to win 4
arnaldi (-105) 2.1 to win 2

parlays
lajovic/passaro win a set/muller win a set (+155) 4 to win 6.2
lajovic/passaro win a set/muller win a set/moutet (+215) 2 to win 4.3
lajovic/djere win a set/passaro win a set/muller win a set/marterer/moutet (+540) 1 to win 5.4
lajovic/djere win a set/passaro win a set/muller win a set/basilashvili/marterer/moutet (+800) 1 to win 8

ladies
baptiste +1.5 games (-115) 4.6 to win 4
selekhmeteva (+185) 2 to win 3.7
selekhmeteva win a set (-135) 5.4 to win 4
selekhmeteva +4.5 games (-130) 2.6 to win 2
gracheva (+230) 1 to win 2.3
sierra (+150) 2 to win 3
sierra +3.5 (-120) 3.6 to win 3

parlay
uchijima/valentova/avanesyan (+135) 4 to win 5.4
uchijima/valentova/avanesyan/sierra win a set (+270) 1 to win 2.7