Did some research over the last 5 years on this prop and broke it down into different categories based on the game totals.
For each totals category, I listed the (yes/no) outcome of 3 consecutive scores prop for the last 5 years. I also listed what the fair price should have been over that time frame.
The most interesting result is the Monday night data I think.
O/U = (30 - 34)
1998 2-3 (40%)
1999 8-6 (57%)
2000 14-4 (78%)
2001 23-13 (64%)
2002 5-7 (42%)
total 52-33 (61%) -103
O/U = (34.5 - 37)
1998 20-18 (53%)
1999 36-25 (59%)
2000 33-14 (70%)
2001 41-20 (67%)
2002 29-9 (76%)
total 159-86 (65%) -185
O/U = (37.5 - 40)
1998 44-25 (64%)
1999 35-26 (57%)
2000 39-17 (70%)
2001 32-26 (55%)
2002 30-15 (67%)
total 180-109 (62%) -163
O/U = (40.5 - 43)
1998 35-29 (55%)
1999 35-16 (69%)
2000 24-12 (67%)
2001 20-11 (65%)
2002 19-19 (50%
total 133-87 (60%) -150
O/U = (43.5 - 60)
1998 43-20 (68%)
1999 46-10 (82%)
2000 53-14 (79%)
2001 37-24 (61%)
2002 58-46 (56%)
total 237-114 (68%) -213
Monday Nights
1998 12-4 (80%)
1999 11-6 (65%)
2000 15-2 (88%)
2001 9-5 (64%)
2002 11-4 (73%)
total 58-21 (73%) -270
I had a gut feeling that monday nights were going to be more biased towards "yes" on this prop. Monday nights are always in line with "pick the winner and you pick the team that covers". If this is more true on Monday than Sundays, then I figured more Monday night games would be dominated by one side or the other moreso than on Sundays. The data seems to support that.
Seems like you can only get value on this prop with very low totals and Monday night matchups.
For each totals category, I listed the (yes/no) outcome of 3 consecutive scores prop for the last 5 years. I also listed what the fair price should have been over that time frame.
The most interesting result is the Monday night data I think.
O/U = (30 - 34)
1998 2-3 (40%)
1999 8-6 (57%)
2000 14-4 (78%)
2001 23-13 (64%)
2002 5-7 (42%)
total 52-33 (61%) -103
O/U = (34.5 - 37)
1998 20-18 (53%)
1999 36-25 (59%)
2000 33-14 (70%)
2001 41-20 (67%)
2002 29-9 (76%)
total 159-86 (65%) -185
O/U = (37.5 - 40)
1998 44-25 (64%)
1999 35-26 (57%)
2000 39-17 (70%)
2001 32-26 (55%)
2002 30-15 (67%)
total 180-109 (62%) -163
O/U = (40.5 - 43)
1998 35-29 (55%)
1999 35-16 (69%)
2000 24-12 (67%)
2001 20-11 (65%)
2002 19-19 (50%
total 133-87 (60%) -150
O/U = (43.5 - 60)
1998 43-20 (68%)
1999 46-10 (82%)
2000 53-14 (79%)
2001 37-24 (61%)
2002 58-46 (56%)
total 237-114 (68%) -213
Monday Nights
1998 12-4 (80%)
1999 11-6 (65%)
2000 15-2 (88%)
2001 9-5 (64%)
2002 11-4 (73%)
total 58-21 (73%) -270
I had a gut feeling that monday nights were going to be more biased towards "yes" on this prop. Monday nights are always in line with "pick the winner and you pick the team that covers". If this is more true on Monday than Sundays, then I figured more Monday night games would be dominated by one side or the other moreso than on Sundays. The data seems to support that.
Seems like you can only get value on this prop with very low totals and Monday night matchups.
