251 New Orleans Saints +2? -110 vs Baltimore Ravens
257 Washington Redskins/Cleveland Browns Over 38? -110
262 San Diego Chargers -4? -110 vs Dallas Cowboys (5 Dimes lines)
Saints have the better QB rotation as their secondary guys have played well in past preseasons, Ravens not and aren't experienced with their new teams anyway. Saints defense has been shored up in the off season too, I think they want to show something here. And the Saints haven't forgotten their two losses to Ravens last season, Monday night not less...
Washington at Cleveland: Two experienced QB rotations (Manziel actually has shown improvement), and Washington's depth on defense (especially the secondary) is very thin. These teams played to a high-scoring affair last year in preseason...
Chargers' QB depth is deep, not so the Cowboys. And Dallas has some hurt running backs and problems in the secondary. Chargers have way more movtivation to put on good show and win at home, Cowboys under Garrett famous don't, especially on the road...Chargers have some players, like Melvin Gordon and Denzel Perryman, who have been open about how they are itching to play strong in this contest...
----------
Folks will tell you betting preseason NFL is a good way to throw away money as only fools would try guessing who might win these glorified scrimmages.
Not true.
If you approach betting NFLX like you do the regular season, you will get burned. That's the mistake most bettors make.... Reputations of teams, projections of how good the team is, or how good they were last season, has little to do with predicting the winner of these contests. And don't focus on how much time the 1st string starters are playing. They don't decide these contests, except in some 3rd week games.
yet bettors pay too much attention to these things, and that is how the lines end up getting set - this means we have some opportunities to exploit!
QB rotation depth is the second most important factor, but the first is if the team gives a damn about the scrimmage. The coach or main players won't ever say they could care less and are just going to sleepwalk thru the motions, but you can sometimes read in-between the lines pretty easy. You jump on these contests!...unfortunately I don't see any of those today...
so these contests are decided by how good the 2nd and 3rd string offense is, if the team has any depth in defense to stop anything, if the secondary players can protect the passer, etc...So try and find the mismatches, and don't try to guess if you don't know!
It takes time to read and research all this stuff, and watching press conferences, reading players comments on social media -- stats, mathematical models and most trends do not figure in the NFLX handicapping much at all.
257 Washington Redskins/Cleveland Browns Over 38? -110
262 San Diego Chargers -4? -110 vs Dallas Cowboys (5 Dimes lines)
Saints have the better QB rotation as their secondary guys have played well in past preseasons, Ravens not and aren't experienced with their new teams anyway. Saints defense has been shored up in the off season too, I think they want to show something here. And the Saints haven't forgotten their two losses to Ravens last season, Monday night not less...
Washington at Cleveland: Two experienced QB rotations (Manziel actually has shown improvement), and Washington's depth on defense (especially the secondary) is very thin. These teams played to a high-scoring affair last year in preseason...
Chargers' QB depth is deep, not so the Cowboys. And Dallas has some hurt running backs and problems in the secondary. Chargers have way more movtivation to put on good show and win at home, Cowboys under Garrett famous don't, especially on the road...Chargers have some players, like Melvin Gordon and Denzel Perryman, who have been open about how they are itching to play strong in this contest...
----------
Folks will tell you betting preseason NFL is a good way to throw away money as only fools would try guessing who might win these glorified scrimmages.
Not true.
If you approach betting NFLX like you do the regular season, you will get burned. That's the mistake most bettors make.... Reputations of teams, projections of how good the team is, or how good they were last season, has little to do with predicting the winner of these contests. And don't focus on how much time the 1st string starters are playing. They don't decide these contests, except in some 3rd week games.
yet bettors pay too much attention to these things, and that is how the lines end up getting set - this means we have some opportunities to exploit!
QB rotation depth is the second most important factor, but the first is if the team gives a damn about the scrimmage. The coach or main players won't ever say they could care less and are just going to sleepwalk thru the motions, but you can sometimes read in-between the lines pretty easy. You jump on these contests!...unfortunately I don't see any of those today...
so these contests are decided by how good the 2nd and 3rd string offense is, if the team has any depth in defense to stop anything, if the secondary players can protect the passer, etc...So try and find the mismatches, and don't try to guess if you don't know!
It takes time to read and research all this stuff, and watching press conferences, reading players comments on social media -- stats, mathematical models and most trends do not figure in the NFLX handicapping much at all.
