What is it with some of the prices this year? Is it my memory, or are there way too many -2XX lines this season?
-250 on Bosox, with anti-stud Burkett going and the pseudo-strong Sox pen. Jeez...need better than 72% chance for a # like that, and I can't give more than 65% here; Tigers do have better pen, and Maroth may keep them around (if they can score, which is possible vs Burkett).
A little different today, I'm doing a quickie from "no way I'd play" to "why is this team a dog?"
NO WAY
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--EXPOS too expensive as Wells has been solid; Vazquez is undoubtable a bit better (certainly more of a K-machine), but team that gets breaks and some timely hitting wins here; Expos should be favored, but -160ish is way too high (got Expos 58 here)
--CUBS are also too pricey, w/Estes not sharp this year, including 12-3 pummelling by Chisox, @Wrigley, in his last; Sheets tossed a nice one at home vs Twins in last, Brewers 3-2 in 10; 57% I get for Cubs may be generous based on starter matchup, as Sheets may do the unthinkable and toss two nice ones in a row; bat edge for Cubs is minimal at best, and Estes is no Wood; Brewers .316 last 10 vs leties a bit misleading as Twins' Rogers the only starter faced
--BOSOX should sweep Tigers, but my confidence in Burkett is lower than it was for Lowe or Wakefield -- he sports an 8.59 era over his past 3 (incl. 21 H in 14.2 IP) while Maroth better at 3.71 over past 3 (still 21 H over 17 IP); if this one is close in the latter stages then it's anyone's, as Tigers have better BP; Bosox scored 10 yesterday but did only bag 3 in the opener, off Bonderman & company, and Maroth is arguably much better; -250 looks ridiculous
--JAYS look pricey, too; Lidle not as sharp as early-season, and Ponson is about the best O's have going; O's bats can score, and Jays pen still lacking; I gave under 60% here, which would make the line a scam
--YANKS should also win, w/Pettitte better lately; Bell surprised all by keeping T'Bay in last vs Marlins (fish 3-1 in 11); D'Rays clearly giving it their all this series and I'd expect Lou to try and pull out all the stops to capture at least one -- don't mean it will happen, but the Yanks 64 I got is way off the 70 needed for the price
EVEN OR NEGLIGABLE VALUE
----------------------------------------
--ASTROS 'capped around 60, as I have little faith in Dessens; D'Backs hitting great lately, and Miller not sharp in 4 career starts vs D'Backs, so my # may be too generous; -130 line shows only slight value at the 60 (PV +3)
--BRAVES 'cap at 63% looks high to me on further reflection -- Padilla has had some strong starts vs this season (3 starts, Phils won all 3) while Braves 1-1 in Maddux starts vs in '03; even at the high 63 there is little value around -150 (need 60)
--MARLINS are tempting with hot lefty Redman going, as Mets still can't hit lefties (.222 '03, .242 @Shea '03, .173 past 10 w/5 lefty starters faced: D.Wells, Pettitte, Phelps, Willis, and Washburn); Trachsel has been steady for Mets (incl. 2.79 era over past 3); Marlins 56 here (PV +4 at -105)
--ROCKIES/PADRES looks like a coin-toss, as Elarton is nowhere-to-be-found, lefty Perez has looked sharp, but Rocks have put a-hurtin' on lefties all season while Pads are always a long-shot to score many (Elarton may cure that here)
--DODGERS 'capped at 54, as I'd take Nomo (&BP) over Moss in a heartbeat this season (Nomo 1.27 era past 3, Moss 7.63); Moss did beat LA 9-3 in April @Dodger Stadium, his only vs this year; PV only +2 at -105
--KC@INJUNS looks like coin-toss, and I can't touch Snyder until he shows he's not sent-to-the-minors material; Anderson looking better lately (2.70 era past 3, including 10-3 win over Tigers--yippee--in last), Injuns bats are not (only 1 against the frequently-pounded George yesterday); line reflects crap-shoot
--TWINS line looks about right, as Mays is inconsistent and Garland has shown flashes of brilliance lately; Twins bats also inconsistent; -125 would be even at 56%
--MARINERS may finally wake up with starter Moyer going, and Ortiz a long-shot for 2 beauties in a row, but -130 needs better than 57% and I gave 'em 56 here, on the road, after last weeks 2-0 Angels win in same matchup @SAFECO; I wouldn't be surprised to see lotsa Angels action make this line more favorable for M's players; M's did get 6 off of Sele & company yesterday, after seeing him last week and bagging only 2 -- same improvement expected here vs "not-another-homer"-Ortiz
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
And if you feel that you can't go on
And your wheels sink in low
Just believe and you can't go wrong
In the light you will find the road
(Led Zeppelin-Physical Grafitti-In the Light)
-250 on Bosox, with anti-stud Burkett going and the pseudo-strong Sox pen. Jeez...need better than 72% chance for a # like that, and I can't give more than 65% here; Tigers do have better pen, and Maroth may keep them around (if they can score, which is possible vs Burkett).
A little different today, I'm doing a quickie from "no way I'd play" to "why is this team a dog?"
NO WAY
---------------
--EXPOS too expensive as Wells has been solid; Vazquez is undoubtable a bit better (certainly more of a K-machine), but team that gets breaks and some timely hitting wins here; Expos should be favored, but -160ish is way too high (got Expos 58 here)
--CUBS are also too pricey, w/Estes not sharp this year, including 12-3 pummelling by Chisox, @Wrigley, in his last; Sheets tossed a nice one at home vs Twins in last, Brewers 3-2 in 10; 57% I get for Cubs may be generous based on starter matchup, as Sheets may do the unthinkable and toss two nice ones in a row; bat edge for Cubs is minimal at best, and Estes is no Wood; Brewers .316 last 10 vs leties a bit misleading as Twins' Rogers the only starter faced
--BOSOX should sweep Tigers, but my confidence in Burkett is lower than it was for Lowe or Wakefield -- he sports an 8.59 era over his past 3 (incl. 21 H in 14.2 IP) while Maroth better at 3.71 over past 3 (still 21 H over 17 IP); if this one is close in the latter stages then it's anyone's, as Tigers have better BP; Bosox scored 10 yesterday but did only bag 3 in the opener, off Bonderman & company, and Maroth is arguably much better; -250 looks ridiculous
--JAYS look pricey, too; Lidle not as sharp as early-season, and Ponson is about the best O's have going; O's bats can score, and Jays pen still lacking; I gave under 60% here, which would make the line a scam
--YANKS should also win, w/Pettitte better lately; Bell surprised all by keeping T'Bay in last vs Marlins (fish 3-1 in 11); D'Rays clearly giving it their all this series and I'd expect Lou to try and pull out all the stops to capture at least one -- don't mean it will happen, but the Yanks 64 I got is way off the 70 needed for the price
EVEN OR NEGLIGABLE VALUE
----------------------------------------
--ASTROS 'capped around 60, as I have little faith in Dessens; D'Backs hitting great lately, and Miller not sharp in 4 career starts vs D'Backs, so my # may be too generous; -130 line shows only slight value at the 60 (PV +3)
--BRAVES 'cap at 63% looks high to me on further reflection -- Padilla has had some strong starts vs this season (3 starts, Phils won all 3) while Braves 1-1 in Maddux starts vs in '03; even at the high 63 there is little value around -150 (need 60)
--MARLINS are tempting with hot lefty Redman going, as Mets still can't hit lefties (.222 '03, .242 @Shea '03, .173 past 10 w/5 lefty starters faced: D.Wells, Pettitte, Phelps, Willis, and Washburn); Trachsel has been steady for Mets (incl. 2.79 era over past 3); Marlins 56 here (PV +4 at -105)
--ROCKIES/PADRES looks like a coin-toss, as Elarton is nowhere-to-be-found, lefty Perez has looked sharp, but Rocks have put a-hurtin' on lefties all season while Pads are always a long-shot to score many (Elarton may cure that here)
--DODGERS 'capped at 54, as I'd take Nomo (&BP) over Moss in a heartbeat this season (Nomo 1.27 era past 3, Moss 7.63); Moss did beat LA 9-3 in April @Dodger Stadium, his only vs this year; PV only +2 at -105
--KC@INJUNS looks like coin-toss, and I can't touch Snyder until he shows he's not sent-to-the-minors material; Anderson looking better lately (2.70 era past 3, including 10-3 win over Tigers--yippee--in last), Injuns bats are not (only 1 against the frequently-pounded George yesterday); line reflects crap-shoot
--TWINS line looks about right, as Mays is inconsistent and Garland has shown flashes of brilliance lately; Twins bats also inconsistent; -125 would be even at 56%
--MARINERS may finally wake up with starter Moyer going, and Ortiz a long-shot for 2 beauties in a row, but -130 needs better than 57% and I gave 'em 56 here, on the road, after last weeks 2-0 Angels win in same matchup @SAFECO; I wouldn't be surprised to see lotsa Angels action make this line more favorable for M's players; M's did get 6 off of Sele & company yesterday, after seeing him last week and bagging only 2 -- same improvement expected here vs "not-another-homer"-Ortiz
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
And if you feel that you can't go on
And your wheels sink in low
Just believe and you can't go wrong
In the light you will find the road
(Led Zeppelin-Physical Grafitti-In the Light)
thanks easter-bunny
