4-5 Big Plays

[Chenker]

10-6 +25% (plus $1,300) on the year-

Only going to play 4-5 games this weekend.

WTF am I missing on this one, did someone get hurt??????

FRESNO +9 AT HOME??????? Are you kidding me??? Could be my biggest play so far this year, have to dig a little deeper.

Other leans

UAB
Penn State
W Forest
Memphis
S Carolina

good luck, thanks for the kind words guys- hope everyone does well this week

 

[Chenker]

Freson will have 3 starters out and 1 starter questionable.

OG Shack- out
QB- Pinegar-out
LB-Dailey out
LB- McGill questionable

The Beavers have one starter out-

DL- Anderson-out

Pinegar out does not bother me, Grady a capable back up-

Fresno is 8-1 as home dog since 1996- Friday night game- fans will be jumping and the Bulldogs have major revenge from last year

 

[gardenweasel]

a pretty serious

a pretty serious

revenge angle going here....i believe oregon st decimated fresno last year by around 40 points....

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Going to take a long look at this one now. Thanks for the heads up guys.

HORNS

 

[Jaycadd]

Just an FYI but saw UAB play Saturday against Baylor and they SUCK!

Take North Texas and give the points and stay away from UAB. UAB QB will probably be out b/c of his knee and the backup wouldn't qualify for high school ball.

Good luck!

 

[Chenker]

Jaycadd- thanks for the comments on UAB- probably a no play for me at this time.


Decided to pull the trigger and bought a point FRESNO +10 to win 8% ($500)

Lets go Dogs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[AR182]

i'm looking at fresno also. but am a little suspicious of the line.

 

[the mugs]

Chenks - What is up? I don't have anything in front of me and I'm not a Boston College fan at all...Still holding a grudge about that Flutie Fluke in Maimi a lifetime ago...Anyway, BC always seems to play to the level of out of conference teams. Like last week tanking against Wake Forest but in the past they have held their own against Notre Dame, Georgia - that was a bowl game, Maimi - usually at home, they get killed at the Orange Bowl. Plus, factor in the tanking vs. Wake Forest from last week and they will want to come out and prove that was a fluke.

Just my opinion bud. BOL with whatever you decide on that one.

Mugs

 

[Chenker]

Hey Mugsy- I actually think Penn State's D will be better than people think -they have a very good secondary and I think that will allow them to cheat a little bit and stack the box against the run- I do not think BC will be a threat through the air and Penn State should be able to stuff the run- penn State was very vanilla on offense last week, look for them to do a little more this week- Bottom line I feel Penn State definitely gets the win and I think they have a good chance to cover-

OBrien is 9-15 ATS vs. non conference opponents with BC and 8-11 as an Away Doggies- Not too mention they are 2-12 ATS in their road openers since 89-

I am going to monitor the line this week before I pull the trigger-

good luck bud-

 

[hornsfan2]

just some more on the OSU/Fresno St. game...

was listening to the press conferences today on ESPN news and they talked about this mathcup. Mentioned how there is bad blood dating back to the 1st game 2 years ago when Fresno beat OSU, and that guy almost killed the poor kid with that hit on the punt. Talked about how that was a motivating factor for OSU last year, but also talked about how the fans were pretty fired up and rowdy for that one (some going so far as to throw stuff on and at the Fresno St. team). Now, at the fresno game this year they have decided to cut-off beer sales at halftime so this doesn't get out of hand. they say they are extremely worried about the fans and some problems that could occur (that is why they are bringing in extra security as well).

anyway, to sum it up, look for the crowd to be rowdy and ready. i am pretty high on this OSU team this year, but with some of these points i think i will sit back and watch them for a game or two before i make a play. good luck

 

[ELVIS]

BE CAREFUL WITH THE MEMPHIS GAME. HOW MUCH DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE TIGERS ? I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE MEMPHIS BEAT MISS. I AM SKEPTICAL. MEMPHIS HAS NOT BEATEN A GOOD TEAM IN A WHILE. I AM NOT SURE ABOUT OUR OFF LINE AND SOME OF THE REC ARE HURT. GL.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

gl this weekend bro!


nice start

 

[mjbarley]

As far as the Fresno St line of +9, I think it's due to their offensive line issues. I watched the Tenn/FSU game last week, and learned that both of FSU linemen that were returning starters (one of who is an Outland candidate) are both out with injuries. Of the 5 linemen who started, only one guy had started ONE game. So they basically went out there with 5 guys who have never started, and it showed. Granted, UT has a strong defense, but Fresno St has no ability to run the ball or protect the QB (I don't care if Pinegar or Grady is back there. When he went to set up to throw, there is always a defender in his face). They will have problems for a few weeks.

On the flip side, the FSU defense played great. They smacked Tennessee in the face, and stopped them most of the time, but they were out on the field all game long and did wear down.

So +9 (or +10 in your case) at home does seem high, but they will have trouble scoring. I think the strong play here is the under, since Fresno St. defense is better than the stats showed in the UT game.

 

[Juu3]

Hey cadd, I definitly agree w/ you on UAB however, I like the Penn St. pk.

 

[ajoytoy]

great job Chenker!!


best of luck this weekend!


toy

 

[mjbarley]

Chenker,

I really don't have an opinion about most of your plays, but I'm definitely on Va this week against S Carolina. Here's why:

I think Va is a little undervalued, because of the overreaction to them losing Schaub. When a star player goes down, I think the team rally's behind the backup, and plays a little harder, as if to say: "our star was great, but he's not the whole team. We can still win without him". And Schaub did go down very early in the Duke game, so the backup QB played virtually the whole game, and he's had the whole week of practice. Virginia has a decent defense, as any team that pitches a shutout (even though it was only Duke) obviously has some talent.

On the other side, S Carolina really struggled against a bad ULL team. S Car won the turnover battle 3-1, but still had problems, only winning by 7 as 23.5 point favorites. I don't think they were playing it close to the vest looking ahead towards this game. S Car kicker is nothing special, and they could have real problems moving the ball against Virginia.

I think this line moved too far based on the injury to Schaub, and I think there's value in playing the Cavs this week.

 

[Chenker]

going with these......

N Dame - 5 1/2 to win 4%

S Carolina +3 to win 4%

Memphis +8 to win 4%

Teaser Penn State -3 NC STATE - 1/2 to win 8%

No play on the UAB game and I had a major change of mind on the W Forest.


good luck guys

 

[AR182]

chenker,

great writeups, as usual. good luck this weekend.

 

[Chenker]

palyed UAB +3 to win 3%

 

[Chenker]

should have played the money line on Fresno too

Here are the rest....

Purdue -10 to win 3%

Miami -14 to win 3%

Colorado -3 to win 3%

FSU -14 to win 3% (bought hook)

NWestern +7 1/2 to win 3 %

Okl -7 to win 3 % (bought hook)

good luck guys