I cannot narrow down these 3 plays any further from my original list.......I am playing all 3 for 4 units each today.
1)Detroit(-112) at Tampa Bay
Yep, I'll jump on this bandwagon! While everyone and their brother is aware of how pitiful the Rays have been all year, the Tigers are actually playing pretty good ball, winning their last 3 straight, 7-3 in the last 10 and 14-6 in the last 20. Tampa has lost 5 straight, is 1-9 in the last 10 and 4-16 in the last 20.
For the year, Mlicki for Detroit is 3-3 with a 5.94 ERA. The Tigers have won 3 of his last 4 starts (twice in those 4 games, Mlicki has given up just 1 ER in 7 IP) and have won 5 of his 8 starts for the year. He is also 4-0 career vs the Rays with a tiny 0.93 ERA.
For the season, Wilson for Tampa is 1-5 with a bloated 7.09 ERA. Tampa has lost Wilson's last 4 starts and 8 of his 9 starts on the year. He has no career record vs Detroit.
On offence, Detroit has better numbers in all the main categories......HR's: 39-33, BA: 276-232, SLG%: 439-370, OBA: 344-310, Steals: 31-25.
Only having to give -112 is this game looks pretty solid! Make it 4 units.
2)San Diego(+115) at Montreal
Lots of stats and trends backing up this one....let's start with the pitching matchup.
Jones for San Diego is just 1-5 on the year but with a sparkling ERA of 2.83. For the season his W+H/IP ratio has been a splendid 1.00, and in his last 5 games, it is even better at .886. Career he is 5-6, 3.46 vs the Expos. Vazquez for Mtl is 4-4 on the year with an ERA of 4.67. His W+H/IP ratio is 1.31 for the year and 1.38 over his last 5 starts. His ERA in those last 5 starts is a startling 5.28. He is 0-2 career vs the Padres with a 5-00 ERA.
San Diego is 5-5 in their last 10 overall, but are 12-5 in their last 17 road games, 6-2 in their last 8 vs Montreal, and 3-1 in their last 4 games scoring a whopping 41 runs and have given up 3 runs or less in 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 10.
Montreal is 5-4 in their last 9 , but are just 5-11 their last 16 at home, and have given up 10 or more runs 4 times in the last 9 games. Yes, two of those games were in Colorado.
San Diego leads in all the important offensive categories as well.....HR's: 41-40, BA: 266-242, SLG%: 417-398, OBA: 355-312, Steals: 49-14.
One last factor in San Diego's favour is the bullpens. The season ERA for the Padres pen is 3.08 and in the last 30 IP, it has been 2.67. Montreal's pen ERA for the season is 5.24 and in the last 35 IP it has been 13.63. Padre closer Hoffman has an ERA of 2.81 and has given up just 2 HR's in 16 IP. Expo closer Urbina has an ERA of 4.05 and has given up 6 HR's in 20 IP.
I see no weak spots here at all, and I'm getting San Diego as a nice dog to boot. Make it 4 units.
3)Arizona(+110) at Cubs
As always let's start on the mound. Ellis for the D'Backs and Tapani for the Cubs have similar stats YTD, but let's dig a little deeper.
On the season, Ellis has a better W+H/IP ratio 1.34 to 1.50. In their last 5 starts, Ellis is at 1.28, Tapani at 1.84, and in their last 3 starts Ellis is at 1.00, Tapani at 1.44. In the bullpen, the Backs ERA in the last 10 games is a minute 1.78 while the Cubs pen ERA in their last 10 games has been a brutal 6.15.
Arizona is 7-3 in their last 10, 7-4 on the road vs RHS, 5-1 in their last 6 road games, and 5-1 in Ellis's last 6 starts. The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 and 1-4 in their last 5 at home.
Arizona scores more runs off righties 5.3/gm than off lefties 4.5/gm, while the Cubs score more off lefties 4.5/gm than off righties 3.8/gm...........all of which favours Zona.
More on offence....Arizona is better at HR's: 64-48, BA: 260-245, SLG%: 454-403, OBA: 336-325, and in steals: 15-12.
Once again, every category points to Arizona and I can get this as a small dog. Make it 4 units.
The 3 Plays Again for 4 Units Each:
1)Detroit(-112)
2)San Diego(+115)
3)Arizona(+110)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
1)Detroit(-112) at Tampa Bay
Yep, I'll jump on this bandwagon! While everyone and their brother is aware of how pitiful the Rays have been all year, the Tigers are actually playing pretty good ball, winning their last 3 straight, 7-3 in the last 10 and 14-6 in the last 20. Tampa has lost 5 straight, is 1-9 in the last 10 and 4-16 in the last 20.
For the year, Mlicki for Detroit is 3-3 with a 5.94 ERA. The Tigers have won 3 of his last 4 starts (twice in those 4 games, Mlicki has given up just 1 ER in 7 IP) and have won 5 of his 8 starts for the year. He is also 4-0 career vs the Rays with a tiny 0.93 ERA.
For the season, Wilson for Tampa is 1-5 with a bloated 7.09 ERA. Tampa has lost Wilson's last 4 starts and 8 of his 9 starts on the year. He has no career record vs Detroit.
On offence, Detroit has better numbers in all the main categories......HR's: 39-33, BA: 276-232, SLG%: 439-370, OBA: 344-310, Steals: 31-25.
Only having to give -112 is this game looks pretty solid! Make it 4 units.
2)San Diego(+115) at Montreal
Lots of stats and trends backing up this one....let's start with the pitching matchup.
Jones for San Diego is just 1-5 on the year but with a sparkling ERA of 2.83. For the season his W+H/IP ratio has been a splendid 1.00, and in his last 5 games, it is even better at .886. Career he is 5-6, 3.46 vs the Expos. Vazquez for Mtl is 4-4 on the year with an ERA of 4.67. His W+H/IP ratio is 1.31 for the year and 1.38 over his last 5 starts. His ERA in those last 5 starts is a startling 5.28. He is 0-2 career vs the Padres with a 5-00 ERA.
San Diego is 5-5 in their last 10 overall, but are 12-5 in their last 17 road games, 6-2 in their last 8 vs Montreal, and 3-1 in their last 4 games scoring a whopping 41 runs and have given up 3 runs or less in 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 10.
Montreal is 5-4 in their last 9 , but are just 5-11 their last 16 at home, and have given up 10 or more runs 4 times in the last 9 games. Yes, two of those games were in Colorado.
San Diego leads in all the important offensive categories as well.....HR's: 41-40, BA: 266-242, SLG%: 417-398, OBA: 355-312, Steals: 49-14.
One last factor in San Diego's favour is the bullpens. The season ERA for the Padres pen is 3.08 and in the last 30 IP, it has been 2.67. Montreal's pen ERA for the season is 5.24 and in the last 35 IP it has been 13.63. Padre closer Hoffman has an ERA of 2.81 and has given up just 2 HR's in 16 IP. Expo closer Urbina has an ERA of 4.05 and has given up 6 HR's in 20 IP.
I see no weak spots here at all, and I'm getting San Diego as a nice dog to boot. Make it 4 units.
3)Arizona(+110) at Cubs
As always let's start on the mound. Ellis for the D'Backs and Tapani for the Cubs have similar stats YTD, but let's dig a little deeper.
On the season, Ellis has a better W+H/IP ratio 1.34 to 1.50. In their last 5 starts, Ellis is at 1.28, Tapani at 1.84, and in their last 3 starts Ellis is at 1.00, Tapani at 1.44. In the bullpen, the Backs ERA in the last 10 games is a minute 1.78 while the Cubs pen ERA in their last 10 games has been a brutal 6.15.
Arizona is 7-3 in their last 10, 7-4 on the road vs RHS, 5-1 in their last 6 road games, and 5-1 in Ellis's last 6 starts. The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 and 1-4 in their last 5 at home.
Arizona scores more runs off righties 5.3/gm than off lefties 4.5/gm, while the Cubs score more off lefties 4.5/gm than off righties 3.8/gm...........all of which favours Zona.
More on offence....Arizona is better at HR's: 64-48, BA: 260-245, SLG%: 454-403, OBA: 336-325, and in steals: 15-12.
Once again, every category points to Arizona and I can get this as a small dog. Make it 4 units.
The 3 Plays Again for 4 Units Each:
1)Detroit(-112)
2)San Diego(+115)
3)Arizona(+110)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
