40+ point favorites

[SALTY DOG]

this info is great throughout the season, but is ESPECIALLY
true the first few games of the season when teams are trying
to feel each other out and find their rythm

 

[taoist]

...first week of 2004, Auburn sitting right on the 40 point bubble at -39 over UL Monroe. Love the angle, but it sure makes you take some really ugly teams. LOL

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

.. Love the angle, but it sure makes you take some really ugly teams. LOL

Not a whole lot of live dogs catchin' 40.

It's a terrifying feeling when you're on the phone. "uhhh. . . .yeah . . . I'll take . . . uhh . . . Louisiana Monroe . . . for a hundo" but it's fun when you see the fav's first team offense pulled before the first half.

 

[taoist]

LMAO!!!!

I hear ya brother...been following this angle since Valuist posted it a few seasons back and have made some nice cash on it. Appreciate your bumping and updating it every season and reminding me.... My local finally caught on and forced me offshore... LOL

 

[Master Capper]

Thanks Taoist, found it with your idea and ordered it!

 

[Devil Dog]

Salty Dog

Salty Dog

Well said....
Best Wishes
Devil Dog

 

[CWood97]

Bump,

LSU -41 vs Arkansas St this weekend

 

[Simply In The Red]

Thanks for the info. I've been looking at that LSU game myself.

 

[taoist]

bbc,

...are you going to update this with 2004 numbers??? ...was curious and wanted to keep this angle bumped up as a reminder.


...looks like we've got Iowa at -39 and Texas at -40 for week 1.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

The only game I remember last year as qualifying for the system was Arkansas State which lost 53-3 as a 40 point dog, but looking at Steele's annual these games also qualified (- anyone remember books besides 5dimes having a spread on Auburn v. Citadel or WVa v. JMU?):

Year/Favorite/Dog/Spread/Result/Fav ATS Result
2004 LSU Arkansas St. -40 53-3 W
2004 Auburn Citadel -46 33-3 L
2004 West Virginia James Madison -44 45-10 L

2004 Record 1-2 33.33%

Overall Record for 40+ point favs (Last 9 Years) 22-47 31.88%

 

[JustFootball]

bobby bluechip:
too funny about la monroe.

 

[TimmyE]

yeah, i might have to call up and tell him I'm taking louisianna lafayette for hundo this weekend!!!

 

[Hooks]

BBC, looked at both the Texas/UL-Laf. and Iowa/Ball St. games and both the big favs. could be caught looking ahead!

Sept. 10th - Texas @ Ohio St. :brows:

Sept. 10th - Iowa @ Iowa St. :brows:

 

[taoist]

:bump:


...looks like we may have a 40+ point doggie in week one.


BBC, thanks for this little system.... Can we get an update for 2005? Bobby or anyone else that might have the numbers handy.... Thanks in advance.

 

[taoist]

According to Phil Steele's publication, I came up with these four games from last year.... Looks like the system made a correction last season, as the fav's went 4-0 ATS....

LSU -43' vs N. Texas - won by 53
Iowa -42 vs Ball St. - won by 56
Texas -40' vs La Laf - won by 57
Texas -40' vs Rice - won by 41

2005 Record 4-0 100.00%

Overall Record for 40+ point favs (Last 10 Years) 26-47 35.61%


If anyone sees that I missed one, please post the correction....

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Thanks for the update. The system did correct itself last year. I remember EVERY one of those losses.

 

[taoist]

...you ain't the only one, bro. What do ya say about geting back to par this year? :shrug:



:SIB

 

[MonkeyPants]

I think last season was a fluke for this trend and it will revert to how it has been over the past 9 seasons before that.

Texas is giving up 40 to North Texas in their first game before Ohio State. With the Longhorns breaking in a couple freshman QB's, it might be asking a lot to score enough points to cover. You would probably have to hope for a shutout for Texas to cover the spread.

Have to take the points in this one along with an under.

 

[taoist]

...well, we're 0-3 thus far..thanks to Temple in part? :shrug: ...give me Buffalo this week. WTF?!?!?! :com: :scared


:SIB

 

[taoist]

Bump! :SIB


According to Phil Steele's publication, I came up with these five games from last year.... Looks like the system made another correction last season, as the fav's went 4-1 ATS.... That's 8-1 ATS for the big chalk over the last two seasons.... Will the big doggies bark this year!?!?!

Minn -41' vs. Temple - won 62-0
Texas -40 vs N. Texas - won 56-7
Clemson -42 vs Temple - won 63-9
L'ville -40' vs Temple - won 62-0
Auburn -40' vs Buffalo - won 38-7

2006 Record 4-1 80.00%

Overall Record for 40+ point favs (Last 11 Years) 30-48 38.46%


If anyone sees that I missed one, please post the correction....