49ers Today

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THE SERIES: The 49ers lead the series 19-16, but Cardinals have won six of the past eight meetings since 2005.

LAST MEETING: The Cardinals stopped RB Michael Robinson short of the goal line on an ill-conceived run play from 2? yards out on the final play to preserve a 29-24 victory on Nov. 10 in front of a national TV audience on Monday Night Football. Arizona QB Kurt Warner threw for 328 yards and three TDs.
INJURY REPORT

49ers: WR Brandon Jones (shoulder) and LB Ahmad Brooks (knee) are out.

Cardinals: WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring), WR Early Doucet (ribs) and QB Brian St. Pierre (back) are questionable; WR Sean Morey (ribs), S Matt Ware (shoulder) and WR Steve Breaston (knee) are probable.
SPOTTING TRENDS

49ERS (0-0): The 49ers have made no secret of their intention to run the football. Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye says his idea of balance is running the ball 60 percent of the time. While RB Frank Gore is going to get a lot of touches in today's game, the 49ers must get production from QB Shaun Hill and the passing game, too. The 49ers have a deep corps of wideouts, but it remains to be seen just who will step up in the passing game. TE Vernon Davis was named a captain last week, and he figures to rank high on the progression. The 49ers want to be able to use the running attack to set up play-action passes. Defensively, there is a lot of pressure on coordinator Greg Manusky to design blitz packages to get to the quarterback. The 49ers showed an alarming incapability to create a pass rush with a straight four-man rush during the exhibition season.

CARDINALS (0-0): Arizona is coming off an NFC West title and a surprise trip to the Super Bowl, where they came within 35 seconds of beating the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cardinals struggled in the exhibition season, but that has little significance now. QB Kurt Warner, whom the 49ers pursued as a free agent in the offseason, is back and looking to establish a winning tradition in the desert. WR Larry Fitzgerald is one of the top pass targets in the NFL, and Warner will look to get the ball in his hands often. With Boldin questionable, the Cardinals will look for Fitzgerald to have a huge game. New defensive coordinator Billy Davis, who served two seasons under Mike Nolan in that position with the 49ers, wants to bring a bend-but-don't-break defense to Arizona so the club is not so reliant on the offense to win games.

KEY MATCHUPS

CB Nate Clements vs. WR Larry Fitzgerald

Clements has experienced more success against Fitzgerald than any cornerback in the league. Last season, Fitzgerald's two lowest-yard outputs came against Clements.

RB Frank Gore vs. LB Karlos Dansby

Gore is the central figure of the 49ers' offense, and Dansby is the team's leading tackler. These two men will see plenty of each other throughout the game.

LB Parys Haralson vs. RT Levi Brown

The 49ers must get pressure on Warner, and Haralson is the team's best pass-rusher. He has to have a good day against Brown, a third-year player.

 

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Something to Ponder

Coach Mike Singletary said this on Wednesday: "On our football team, I don’t want anybody, including myself, to think that they’re the most important person on this team."

Actually, the way the 49ers are set up this season, Singletary is absolutely the most important person. The organization is throwing their entire weight behind their change at head coach because they did almost nothing to improve their starting talent on the club over the off-season. Twenty of the 22 starters from last year retained their assignments and only one of those changes was designed as an upgrade from last year and that was the demotion of free safety Mark Roman in favor of Dashon Goldson.


The other shift occurred because of an injury when Walt Harris tore his ACL during an offseason practice and was gone for the season. The man who wound up replacing Harris, Shawntae Spencer is the same guy Harris replaced three years ago, Is Spencer, who's now a collected a few more injuries and has more age, better than he was in 2006?

The only other change if it's a change at all, is the installation of Moran Norris at fullback, but that's more of a scheme move than an upgrade in personnel. Now the team is hoping to get a boost from the development of young starters such as Goldson, guard Chilo Rachal, tackle Joe Staley, tight end Vernon Davis, linebacker Parys Haralson, and wide receiver Josh Morgan. But Singletary and his coaching staff is essential to that player development.

Consequently, if the 49ers are going to improve, they'll do it because Singletary is a far better coach than his predecessor Mike Nolan, and that's entirely possible.

In fact, there's been a study on the influence of NFL coaches on their teams. A quantitative analysis was performed in 2000 by the Department of Economics and Finance at the University of Dayton. The peer reviewed article used sophisticated statistical analysis including something called Poisson Regression to break down 23 offensive, defensive and special teams indicators from 1969 through 1993 to determine the effectiveness of head coaches.

They found that coaching can make a difference of up to 3.5 games in a 16-game season. Of course, in the 49ers' case such a swing depends on how bad Mike Nolan was compared to how good Mike Singletary is. Interestingly, they found that coaches fired in the middle of seasons represented the worst group, so Singletary certainly has some ample room for improvement.

Unfortunately they found coaches with between 14 and 17 years of NFL experience to be the most well-suited for success. Singletary steams into tomorrow's game with six years in the league, however that doesn't include his 12 seasons as a Hall-of-Fame linebacker, which is worth quite a bit, but just how much will be determined Sunday afternoon, when the 49ers kickoff their 2009 season.

It's just a little something to ponder on the eve of the opener.