MiN -2.5 : Love to back a favorite when the money is on the dog. This line has come down from 3.5 or 4 . Who ever made this line won't be looking for work anytime soon. Smart #,fits with public perception. Glad to be on the house side for this one. FUN PARLAY : vandy +5.5/ min-2.5/ok st + 5.5/ hou -5.5 /..... ... .. .
51 - 36 / season
- Thread starter bryanz
- Start date
whats wrong with the line? why wouldnt minnesota be favored at home over wake by a basket or two? wake is the better team, minny with the solid home court edge. line makes sense. just a matter of finding the right side.
You are right about MIN's solid home court edge, I think they are better than WF on their floor. I don't Think WF is the better team tonight on this floor. What % of Dogs are backed by the money ? What % of road dogs are Backed ? I'll bet it not very high, and the number that covers is even lower.
i do agree that there is such a thing as a 'public dog' and anti-pub favorites can be absolutely profitable. i dont, however, agree that there is a public side to this meaningless nit game that few will be watching. to me, this one is simple. wake has way more talent than minny. but the deacs have underachieved all year and have to play on the road in a tough environment, not because the fans will be rowdy (they wont) but because the venue itself is unique.
Ther are no meaningless games when Millions of dolors are bet on them. I'm trying to beat the guy that set this line. He knows more about these teams than I do, so I try to figure what my play should be in part by what I understand public perception to be and the reaction to the line with their money. Every game has a better win side and the house win side. I know you know, but more talent does not win bets.
the linesmaker does not know more about these teams that you do. its obviously a fallacy that lines are set to attract equal money on both sides. there are certainly times when books take stands one way or the other. just seems that way too many people try to convince themselves of a public side in a game that books take limited action on.
I will never believe that equal money stuff. Yes there are some lines like that but 80% of the lines are set to grab most of the chips. Most of us will never have the intimate knowledge of the teams that it takes to win so we need to combine our knowledge of the sport with reading between the lines.
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Reading lines is experience and instincts. 1+1 is not always 2 & (x + y) can = T,I ,4, 69, or ~`~`~`. Not a science. How can the books take a stand if they don't know more and don't understand the bettors perception ? They do know more and they do understand the bettors perception.
The public is right some times. We are the public. I should say,the majority is right some times. Not as much as they are wrong thou. I think the best play is to know the teams and if your pick not only goes against the money but the perception of the majority, it's MONEY !!!!!!!!!
bryanz said:
they do not know more about the teams.
they know more about betting perception and which way the average guy will bet into a certain number. those who say the books know more about the teams are the ones who arent putting the work in to keep on top of whats going on with these schools. respect. respect the linesmaker. but trust your own handicapping.
simply put, when people say the books know more about the teams, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it gives players a built-in reason for why the lose.
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