6/24 MLB Plays

[Nick Douglas]

One for today. Also have some quick notes posted on my page. I'll copy and paste them onto this thread in a bit. Good luck.

Colorado vs. LOS ANGELES over 8 1/2 -107 600/561

 

[CrazyHorse]

Hey Nick,

I am curious why you made this play at 8.5o -107. I know there are a few books out there offering it at 8 with the over at -115 to -130, including 2 that have it at -115 right now. Please don't think I am questioning your pick or reasoning. I am just curious why you like 8.5o -107 instead of 8o -115. I only have 2 books and other than canbet the best I can get is -130. Please reply if you have the time. Thanks!

 

[Valuist]

This is the Canbet money move play. Its 8.5 at Canbet (w/a -107 under)and seemingly 8 everywhere else. For whatever reason, I've found the big money at Canbet is usually right.

 

[Spock]

If you think the game is gonna go way over 8 .. good to take 8.5 at -107 rather than 8 at -135 or so .. cut down on the juice ..

Spock

 

[Valuist]

I'm not so sure of that. 8 may be the most common total number in baseball. With either 8 or 9, a half run makes a big difference.

 

[CrazyHorse]

I personally would rather play a game at 8.5o -107 instead of 8o -130, no question. However if I had a chance to get -115 for 8 then I would have to take it. Again my baseball knowledge is nothing compared to Nick's but he did mention that he uses several books a while back. So I figured one of them probably had the over 8 at -115 or -120. I just know at -115 I would much rather have 8 then have 8.5 and -107 regardless of how strong a play I felt it was. Perhaps his other books only had it at -125 or higher or maybe he felt it was strong enough to take at 8.5 and have a small amount of juice (-107) as opposed to -115 or higher. I actually love the play and will take overs in most Mike Hampton games especially the way dodgers hit lefties. And, like Nick said, Ishii is walking way to many batters and his WHIP on the year is 1.50, pretty high.

 

[Valuist]

I had a choice to play over 8.5 (-107) at Canbet or over 8 (-125) and took the over 8. I can live with a push with a 5-3 or 6-2 outcome but I would hate to lose by a 1/2 run like that. I'll go higher juice than that with 9, if the choice is under 9 (-107). If I could get over 8.5 at even -135 I'd take it since 9 is an even more common outcome, and 5-4 is one of the 5 most common outcomes.

 

[Bandit HVG]

its 7.5 -150 at carib

 

[ndnfan]

I guess it all depends on the situation. A lot of times you'll see a big difference in paying for that 1/2 run sometimes it'll be up to a 40 cent difference and even though say the total of 9 which is one of the most common and you're paying that price from say 8.5, is it worth it? It's not in my opinion a lot of times, because true that is a very common outcome, but that is not taking into effect your capping abilities on how the game will play out and you gotta figue that into the fact if it's worth it or not.

Don't know if I made any sense there or not, but getting back to the total in the LA game....Did anyone NOT think the line was gonna go up on that total when you seen the opening line of 7.5? I'm not saying it's not gonna go Over, because I think it has a very good chance to go well over the total, A lot of times I just feel when anything that obvious on line movement which this was to any one that follows baseball, I tend to be a little suspect of it.

A couple of things keeping me off the total is how bad the Rockies are vs lefties away from Coors...they are averaging just 3 runs per game. As far as Hampton goes, if he's on his game, he'll induce a lot of ground balls and double play balls, plus pitching at LA will help his cause tonight. If he get's rocked which is very well possible with how LA destroys lefty pitching, I really don't think they will leave him in very long at all. I think the manager will have a very quick signal to the pen if Hampton starts to struggle and if that's the case any scoring early could hit a dry spell. Something you'll see alot is Runs very early in the game and dry spell the rest of the way to keep it under the total..happens alot in baseball. It's enough to keep me off the total. Still if I had to play it, I would probably go with the Over, so I will be pulling for everyone. Just wanted to throw my .02 cents out here on this total which just looks way too obvious.

 

[Antonio]

Very nice Nd, agree totally, looks to good to be true. may make a small wager on the Under depending on the rest of tonites outcomes.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks for all the comments, guys. It is kind of funny reading all of this because I simply played it at Canbet because after losing last week it was the only book I am still funded at right now. I generally try to keep a relatively small percentage of my bankroll at books and unfortunately I wasn't ready for a big loss so quick. Hopefully towards the end of the week I will have some money transferred back though Paypal and into my books.

At the four books I generally rotate (Bet365usa, Sportsinteraction and WSEX) I could have gotten 8, -130 or 7.5, -145. I do believe that this game at 8.5 is still a fabulous play, but just to be safe I probably would have put at least a little on 7.5 for the smaller win had I been funded at Bet365.

As far as what Valuist said, that definitely played into my handicapping of this game. I have just noticed that Canbet's moves have been real strong indicators of good plays lately. Unfortunately the reason I am still funded there is because their moves were so good that I didn't play anything there when I lost last week.

 

[Valuist]

Nick-

I'm glad someone else noticed this too (the Canbet move). I was getting to think I was paranoid. Over the past couple weeks, they've been correct around 75% of the time. Yesterday it was the over in the Sox/Atl game, today its the LA/Colo game. I've noticed a lot more of these on totals than sides, but if there's a big move on a dog, its usually alive. Also, the majority of the time its a move to the under.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

FWIW@ Pinnacle

Over 8 -119

 

[CrazyHorse]

I meant to say something in an earlier post but I noticed the same thing about canbet's lines. I know it sounds like I am just trying to agree with everyone now but it is true. I have been with them for about a year but noticed it lately with their baseball lines and agree they have been on the right side 75% of the time when it happens. Hopefully that continues tonite.

On another note my acct at SIA is slowly dwindling down. I know they are notorious for having bigger dogs than other books. But it seems like every time I go with the dog who is a bigger dog than they should be at SIA, I lose. I am sure it is just the choices I make but it does make me wonder sometimes.

Good luck to all who are on the over tonite.

 

[Antonio]

Your not the only one Valuist, so dont get paranoid. Canbet convinced me to play the Cubbies game Over last nite, there number stayed at 9 +117, while they normally would have gone to 9.5. Sharp book. Canbet, and Pinnacle are 2 sharp books when it comes to bases. I try and follow the lines on those 2 extensively, print outs in the morning, when i get home from work, and follow right up until game time. Vey well observed valuist.