6.4% Unemployment.

[just cover]

I didn't even want to comment at first but want to put my 2 cents in.

1. Freeze- You are right if you look in the classifieds there is alot of jobs out there, however as chopsticks posted you would need 3 jobs to just make it. I would say 90% of those jobs pay min. wage or slightly more in our area anyways. I have a decent union paying job here in central Illinois along with my wife who is 2 classes from her masters in education adminstration (Principal) and has been a teacher for 6 years now. Combined we make decent money at the $100,000-$105,000 mark. We make an average salary for our town, however I think I have less disposable cash now then I did 20 years ago.

2. Don't we have a Republican Prez and Congress. Then what is going on with all this extra spending and deficit increase. I have been mostly a democrat voter but have voted republican in some instances. I didn't vote for Bush but have liked how he handled Iraq so far. What I don't like is the ever bulging deficit that our kids are going to have to deal with. The place where I am going with all this is a the tax cuts aren't doing anything to stimulate the economy to help create jobs.

3. NAFTA- I didn't want to go here also but have to. What a joke -this has hurt the US a hundreds times worse than it has helped. The US, just in my area alone, has lost good union jobs and half-way decent paying jobs with plant closings and moving to Mexico. I don't want to hear that is capitalism so people who want to use that as an excuse save your breath. Can anyone prove that we benefited from it?

I could go on and on and probably single handedly solve our of countries problems but I want to go read the mj's softball thread from start to finish and it might take up most of my 4th of July celebration. I hope beantownjim can comment on this situation.

Have a safe and happy 4th of July

just cover

 

[Iowa Child]

The last thing I would worry about is the deficit. Remember the big deficits in the 80's that Reagan got blamed for even though congress was democratic? Reagan tax cuts in the 80's helped the economy explode in the 90's and deficit was gone just like that. Everybody was saying crap like "we're mortgaging our kids future" and all that, and the deficit was wiped out.

 

[djv]

Over 2 million manufacturing jobs lost in last 28 months. Many from the companies that got the tax break last year. They just keep down sizeing. I looked at the adds in the local paper and Madison. I see health care up the ying yang. Now should everyone run out because the fad is health care right now. Common guys cut the spin. If everyone did just that. Well no shortage would be in health care and they would start to cut back. This country is built on balance. Our balance is for chit right now. Dont pick on those who you say wont take a job. Hell some are working two low paying ones to survive. Other wise number might be higher if they were still putting in claims. Over 9 million with out jobs is costing all of us money. Just in the state of Kansas they have lost over 60000 jobs in the aircraft industry last 24 months. Its easy if your still working to call them lazy and dont want to work. But when your a skilled machinest and there over 60000 of you looking for same type job your screwed. This is not just tech jobs lost. Only thing going good is war industry. And even there they may cut back per word yesterday. Were lucky there are still 80000 reservist that have been called up. How many of those may not be working. New ideas are needed from Wah DC. So far nothing has worked. Wish I had the answer. But then they would want me as president and im retired.

 

[GENO]

I like that Dr, the number of productive jobs. Good point.

The noise here in Ohio is that the state would rather raise sales tax 20-30% than cut the un-productive and excess spending.'

Anymore I am not quite sure who to believe.

I am concerned about the concetration of wealth, the illegal work force, and the exportation of jobs for corporate profits, the underfunded pensions, and the taxation of Social Security benefits and the dependance a segment of the population has placed on social security.

I am for hard work, and being productive in the workforce, but I also understand that a large portion of the employers never give raises after hire, and some employees are now simply happy to have a job even without a raise over 4-8 year period due to benefits retained.

But their purchasing power has decreased along with the purchase power the the 55+ age group due to this situation and the loss of interest income .

Those folks will not be the driving force behind the next economic recovery, nor will the Mexican crew that works for my son's employer, they are sending money back home never to be spent in local businesses. Of course the owner is happy as a meadow lark he gets employees to complete jobs without beneifts, without social security payments out of his pocket or workman's comp expenses etc.

I also know some young workers that never care if they have to cash a paycheck ever, simply give them cash and they will keep going.

I then see the outlandish house purchases in the million plus range, and think unreal what separation of wealth there is in this country.

I am not the smartest Joe on the street and I spend my time as a happy free American proud of the country I live in and honored by the sacrifices my Fathers and Uncles generation made to preseve what our forefathers built, but I am concerned about the direction we are headed and more so I should be more active in steering that direction.

Bottomline a lot of (not all) us are like hogs at the feeder on the farm content and happy with the live as long as the feeder holds food, but let the feeder run empty and we start banging the metal lids against the sides making quite a disturbance, while all the time we are simply headed for the loading chute and the market.

 

[GENO]

just cover,.... my perception of NAFTA is the same as yours it is bad for the economy. My viewpoint is more automotive related than any other, the jobs sent out of the country will never bolster our tax base or social security situation. The profits from lower wage expenditure has not really helped the corporations who hoped to reap the benefits as the workforce purchasing power here in the states has diminished. So the "High stepping Strutters" simply leverage more, or lease, or of course 72 month payment plan that huge GGV puchase. The rebates are eating the automakers gains from NAFTA it looks like to me.

Plants are being shut down for 2 extra weeks for Saturn, and the Baltimore assembly plant is also on a 4 week shutdown I think I read.

As Gordon said "High stepping strutters who land in the gutters sometimes need one too"
:nono:

 

[Chopsticks]

Well I know that I am lucky to have a job, but along with a slowing economy, my company has given out only 1 salary increase in the last 4 years. We are not even getting a cost of living increase. So, technically, we are making less and less every year. It is almost impossible to keep our costs down b/c of our payroll. That is why we are cost cutting and consolidating so much. I am in fear that they will shut down our plant and send the work overseas where Asian workers can do the same job for 1/10th of the pay. I honestly don't see a bright light at the end of the tunnel for us or this country anytime soon. Not only are people losing their jobs, but the people that do have jobs are in fear of losing them. So, they are sitting even harder on their pocket books and saving for such events as more layoffs. There you have it, many hundreds of thousands out of jobs, and the ones that do have jobs aren't spending any money to help jumpstart a slow moving economy. It's getting harder and harder for me to set aside money for my kids' educations. Please, someone tell me where the "good times" went...

 

[acehistr8]

As thankfully I no longer speak from the ranks of the unemployed, I want to clarify a common misperception here that seems to be perpetuated over and over again.

When people who have had a job in the past become unemployed, they arent "living off the government" in terms of the monies they receive. They only receive an amount equivalent to what they/their company paid in taxes for them over the years. Thankfully for me I was at my previous firm for over four years and was able to receive the max of $309/wk. But its not like people who lose their jobs sit at home waiting for the government to send them free money.

Now if you are talking people living on welfare, thats another story alltogether. But please dont lump those folks in with unemployed people who had previous careers, as they are merely getting out of the system what they put it.

 

[djv]

But you can have those even with two low paying jobs. After lossing a good one that now qualifie for types of welfare. If we dont stop the loop holes that let companies leave our country. We will see more of this.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hmmm Doc That is most interesting observation that had never entered my mind.

Just Cover You seem like model family and it appears your success has come from preperation in life and the willingingness to put forth the extra effort that seperates the successful from the "its not my fault" group.

Agree that I can see not much positve from NAFTA. Is Ironic though that you here so much big busness bashing from one side and how the little guy needs the breaks. Yet when business says I'll take my shop elsewhere they whine about that. Wonder how long it takes till they realize it is business that benefits the little guy and handouts are temporary and non productive.
However I do think business needs checks and balances and maybe a solution to keeping jobs here is charging tarriffs on goods produced outside U.S especially frpm companies domiced here and NOT sqaundering the proceeds but putting 100% into benefits of startup small businesses or those that stay in U.S. that need help.

Will agree with those that think tax break will have little effect on economy.Might pay 6 months interest on the spendthrifts credit cards.

Can't get a job-nobody hiring? Let me give you three businesses off hand you can start on your own with little start up inventory and high school degree not even necessary
Qualifications Willing to work-and being able to work unsupervised.

Insurance broker- Start up cost$1/ink pen

After hours office cleaning- needed a vehicle vacumn cleaner and elbow grease.

Lawn mowing summer-snow removal winter.
Have brother in-law with high school education that started tree removal business 20 years ago with ole pick up and a couple of chain saws. Now has multi business of tree removal-mowing and snow removal employing about 15 people. His answer to success-hard work.He is still 1st at work and last to leave.

for those who say its not my fault I say bullshit. Regardless of race color or creed we are all born with one thing being equal.
We each have 24 hours in a day.How we spend them determines our road through life. Quit whining and start planning your next 24 hours.

 

[StevieD]

Give me a break as I try to follow the logic here. Seven or eight years ago all these people were working. Then, somehow, somewhere, somebody discovers that if they don't work they get unemployment. News of this spreads throughout the land. People begin leaving good paying jobs in order to stay home and live off the government?
That must be it because it is their own fault they are out of work. It has nothing to do with the policy of the present administration because they have nothing to do with it.

 

[djv]

I agree with DTB start your own work. But if more and more get layed of there becomes little thats is not taken. My city had four ads in the paper for guys who would cut grass, trim, ect three years ago. This summer there are eleven most weeks. Now they all cant being doing well. But it might help there uemployment check out some. But if more get layed off they wont have money to pay these guys and that little busines will dry up. Same with I will do office and home cleaning adds. Dam we have over twenty such ads. I dont think there was ever more then five or six. So its good to see these folks are trying to help them self. But what they really need is there companies to getbusy again and hire them back. Need some incentive thinkers in WDC. So far just handing money back to these companies has not worked. We needed to make those companies earn those breaks my number of new jobs created. Earn even more by keeping there company here not runing off shore.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Stevie
In your statement
"Seven or eight years ago all these people were working."

Could you clarify all of "what people" were working?
Who are these people you are referring too? There are many unemployed in these stats who have never worked.

It would be interesting to see just which people were working that now are not and why.

I can see when big operations shut down that jobs are lost,but I can also see how unemployment #'s can be juggled to show just about anything.

Maybe our area here is not effected like many areas but our biggest component in sales in office here are group benefits, and there is absolutely no change in pattern of additions vs deletions on members of groups we insure in this area. Again this is not a reliable indicator as it comes from very small sector of U.S but it is
#'s I can rely on as not being distorted from outside number jugglers.

 

[StevieD]

The Economic Policy Institute JOBS PICTURE is published each month
upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report.




June 6, 2003

Jobless recovery persists as unemployment continues to climb

Unemployment rose to 6.1% last month according to today's report from
the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This is the highest level
reached thus far in the current weak recovery, and the highest level
since July of 1994. Payroll employment fell slightly, by 17,000, with
larger losses in government and manufacturing. The share of the
population employed is historically low, and long-term unemployment
remains stuck at recessionary levels, suggesting that the jobless
recovery is persisting.

Extensive revisions in today's BLS report also show that the nation's
job deficit is deeper than was previously recognized. These revisions
to the payroll data led to some significant changes in recent job
trends. Over the longer term, the jobless recovery has been
considerably more costly in terms of job loss than shown in earlier
data. Most recently, however, job loss has been milder than
previously reported.

Prior to the revisions, it appeared that 2.1 million total jobs and
2.7 million private-sector jobs were lost between the beginning of the
recession in March 2001 and April of this year. With today's
revisions, and including May's results, those losses have been revised
to 2.5 million and 3.0 million. Both in terms of numbers and
percentages, more private-sector jobs have been lost over this
downturn than in any prior comparable period in post-WWII history (see
figure below).

Most recently, however, the revised data show that the pace of job
loss has slowed. Pre-revised data showed payrolls down by 525,000
between January and April of this year; revisions reduced this loss to
272,000.

This month's revisions have no impact on the household survey used to
derive unemployment and employment rates. Just under 9 million
persons were seeking work last month, an increase of 3.4 million since
unemployment hit its low point in late 2000. While the rate for most
groups was unchanged, significant increases occurred for adult men-up
0.3 percentage points to 5.9%-and Hispanics. Note that while the
overall unemployment rate is up 2.2 points from its low of 3.9% in
October of 2000, Hispanic unemployment, at 8.2%, is up 3.1 points, and
black unemployment is up 3.4 points.

Employment rates-the share of a given group with jobs-are also
indicative of how weak the labor market is for some groups of workers.
The employment rate for men, 68.7% is the lowest it has been since
May 1983, when the unemployment rate was 10.1%, suggesting that the
current 6.1% unemployment rate is not fully capturing the lack of job
opportunities for these workers. Similarly, the employment rate for
college graduates-75.4%-is the second-lowest rate in the history of
this series, which begins in January of 1992 (the lowest rate was
75.2% last July), evidence of weakness among white-collar workers.

Other indicators of weak job creation include long-term unemployment
and the share of the unemployed as a result of layoffs. The share of
the unemployed who were job losers rose from 54.2% to 56.5%, the
highest level since October 1992. The average spell of unemployment
fell slightly from 19.6 weeks to 19.2 weeks, but this indicator
remains near the peaks of earlier, and much deeper, recessions.

Manufacturing employment declined by 53,000, its 34th consecutive
month of job loss. If anything, factory job losses have accelerated
lately, suggesting that the falling dollar is not yet reversing job
hemorrhaging in this industry. The level of manufacturing employment
stands at its lowest since October 1958.

Retail trade employment fell slightly last month, by 14,000, and is
down 358,000 over the recession, suggesting recent reports of
increased sales by retailers are not yet showing up in hiring. A new
sector, information, fell slightly last month but is down 417,000
since the recession began. Within this sector, since the onset of the
recession in March 2001, large employment losses have occurred in
Internet publishing (down 17,500), telecom (-187,000), and Internet
service providers (-83,000). Government employment, a source of
growth earlier in the downturn, has begun to feel the brunt of budget
cuts. Public-sector employment is down 68,000 since this February,
with 23,100--one-third of the loss--in local government education.

This is another in a series of weak reports on labor market
conditions. While revisions show fewer payroll losses thus far this
year, the slow-growth economy has left us with a gaping jobs deficit,
far larger than in any post-war recovery by this stage of the business
cycle. It will take many quarters of consecutive fast growth to
repair the damage.


?Jared Bernstein
with research assistance by Brendan Hill

 

[maverick2112]

I dont see how anyone can say that the thousands and thousands of jobs being shipped to other countries in the last 20 years has'nt had a disasterous effect on the american worker...........It seems like simple math to me..........when you start taking away the number of jobs available to people.....this will cause an increase in the people out of work......no matter what the policy is.

Also look how much is costs to live anymore..........In the early 1960's my parents made about 1700 a month......their house payment was like $81 like 5% of their total income for a 2 bedroom house...........Now say a couple brings home $4000 a month but the same house payment is $600 like 15% of total income...........now you do this with every bill and you can see why people are struggling............