LAKERS vs. NETS ANALYSIS
For the record, I think the Nets have a decent chance to still win this series. I will be very surprised if it goes less than 6 games.
The line has sunk from game 1 to Nets +6 from Nets +8 and the total has gone up one point from 190.5 to 192. On the surface, this looks like a response to the game 1 result. It also seems clear that the public is likely to be on New Jersey and the over. The logic behind that is that New Jersey only scored 14 points in the first quarter but still made a game of it, so barring another early debacle, they will keep the game close and score enough points to ensure the over.
There are psychological factors that support that as well. I have found in all sports that teams that give up early leads and stage big comebacks only to fall short in the end often come out blazing the next game and roll to big wins. I noticed it quite a bit in basketball and a few times in baseball as well. If the team completes the comeback like the Celts did in game 3 of the Eastern Finals, often they let down the next game and end up losing.
There is also the fact that the Nets are arguably the better overall team. With Horry, Fox and Fisher all playing at a level far below their performance last year, the Lakers are extremely vulnerable and downright beatable to a good defensive team. Certainly the Nets have shown an ability to play great defense all year.
The caveat in all of this is that the Nets still have to win an NBA Finals game in Los Angeles. There is an old saying in gambling that you should never bet on a team unless you think they will win the game. Though 6 points is a lot, especially in the playoffs, I still would not recommend a wager on New Jersey if you think "the Lakers will win, but 6 points is too many."
As far as the total goes, the number just seems too high for a game that is very likely to be a half court game. I believe the public has been swayed by the high scoring Sacramento series and a surprisingly high scoring game 1 and the total has been set above what it should be. I am going to make a relatively conservative play on the under tonight and see if I can make a little coin on what should be an exciting game.
Play: LAKERS vs. New Jersey under 192 220/200
Good luck.
For the record, I think the Nets have a decent chance to still win this series. I will be very surprised if it goes less than 6 games.
The line has sunk from game 1 to Nets +6 from Nets +8 and the total has gone up one point from 190.5 to 192. On the surface, this looks like a response to the game 1 result. It also seems clear that the public is likely to be on New Jersey and the over. The logic behind that is that New Jersey only scored 14 points in the first quarter but still made a game of it, so barring another early debacle, they will keep the game close and score enough points to ensure the over.
There are psychological factors that support that as well. I have found in all sports that teams that give up early leads and stage big comebacks only to fall short in the end often come out blazing the next game and roll to big wins. I noticed it quite a bit in basketball and a few times in baseball as well. If the team completes the comeback like the Celts did in game 3 of the Eastern Finals, often they let down the next game and end up losing.
There is also the fact that the Nets are arguably the better overall team. With Horry, Fox and Fisher all playing at a level far below their performance last year, the Lakers are extremely vulnerable and downright beatable to a good defensive team. Certainly the Nets have shown an ability to play great defense all year.
The caveat in all of this is that the Nets still have to win an NBA Finals game in Los Angeles. There is an old saying in gambling that you should never bet on a team unless you think they will win the game. Though 6 points is a lot, especially in the playoffs, I still would not recommend a wager on New Jersey if you think "the Lakers will win, but 6 points is too many."
As far as the total goes, the number just seems too high for a game that is very likely to be a half court game. I believe the public has been swayed by the high scoring Sacramento series and a surprisingly high scoring game 1 and the total has been set above what it should be. I am going to make a relatively conservative play on the under tonight and see if I can make a little coin on what should be an exciting game.
Play: LAKERS vs. New Jersey under 192 220/200
Good luck.
