7/08/01 Diamond Picks

[Antonio]

Mlb 91-63 +7.92units{June}

Mlb 31-16 +18.30units{July}
Fav 5-6 -3.95units
Dog 5-3 +3.70units
Totals 21-7 +18.55units

Nice day off yesterday, first one in a month and half...

playing these so far:
{2x plays}
Nyy/Nym O9 -110

1x Plays
Tor/Mon U9' -115
Mil/Sf U9' -110
Kc/Hou U10' -110 {i realize both of these games have been shootouts, but elarton pitched a gem vs. these guys before 1.23ERA, only 25% of Houston's lineup has ever faced Durbin, which i think favors the pitcher, and my most important stat when playing totals, besides bullpens, is the Ump: U64%, and the key to me are the RPG. at 8.41... Please respond if ive missed anything here guys thanks...Tony

[This message has been edited by Antonio (edited 07-08-2001).]

 

[Antonio]

also leaning toward:

Phil/Bal O9', not liking the hook

Fl/Tb O8'(both pitchers have been stellar h/a and L3, but i see this game going over the total. Ump 53%O meaningless, But his RPG of 11, just cant get it out my head , please let me know your thoughts guys thanks...Tony

 

[phoenix566]

Antonio,

There are 6 total plays that fit into my "Theory Total" criteria that serve as a staring point to my capping the total on the game. When the first 2 games of a series either go over or under, I look for reasons for the last game to go opposite that trend. Todays theory plays are:

Det/Cub to go under
Cle/STL to go under
Canada to go under
Phi/Bal to go over
KC/Hou to go under
Oak/Ariz to go over

One of my fellow cappers likes to play this angle a lot. He told me he saw data last year that showed this played to form 62% of the time over the 5 years prior. Since I first posted about it, it is hitting 54%. Since I first posted it though, either it kicked butt for the day or tanked on the particularly day it comes into play. My lack of time has precluded me from actually researching the hard data myself (perhaps someone with access to this info as well as the time might volunteer to research this for us?)

Of all the 'theory plays', which you are on three of, I think the strongest are - KC/Hou U, Phi/Bal O, & Canada U. (Oak/Ariz may not be a bad play if Schilling continues to struggle??).

The more I look at todays card though, the more I am contemplating sitting out today. Week started off bad, but I was able to turn it around nicely L3 days and would not mind ending this way, especially with the break coming up. Something seems amidst at the Circle K tonight

??? Of course I could also just be having flashbacks to Fathers Day Sunday spanking

. If I play today, it will be small.

As far as the umpires go, I have to say I place least emphasis on them. The high total could be skewed from a couple of really high scoring games. Besides, If everyone else does there job correctly, just how much/how often does the Ump affect the total runs scored? I am just saying the umpire will never scare me off a game or convince me on one.

My $.02 since you asked.

[This message has been edited by phoenix566 (edited 07-08-2001).]

 

[Antonio]

thanks for the insight Pheonix, correct me if im wrong but Chi/Det would be an under play right? I agree that the players make the total, but the Ump info has really helped me in the past..thanks again Tony

may make a small play on the other 3 totals as well, seeing its the last day.A well needed break is in order for all of us in here

Thanks again..

 

[phoenix566]

You are correct, I typed wrong, but will fix in an edit.

 

[Antonio]

Final plays for today:
{2x Plays}
Nyy/Nym O9 -110
Az/Oak O7' -110

1x Plays
Bos O9' -130
Tor O9' -115
Hou U10' -110
Phil O9' -105

 

[Antonio]

adding:
{1x Plays}
Sf/Mil O9' Even
Sf/Az parlay +180

Buona fortuna a tutti...

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

Originally posted by Antonio:
also leaning toward:

Phil/Bal O9', not liking the hook

Fl/Tb O8'(both pitchers have been stellar h/a and L3, but i see this game going over the total. Ump 53%O meaningless, But his RPG of 11, just cant get it out my head , please let me know your thoughts guys thanks...Tony

Had the over here, and yes got caught with the hook.

GL

 

[phoenix566]

Theory totals 1-4 so far. I knew something was amidst today. I wish I would listen to myself sometimes when that little voice says to hide under my bed and not play.......

Sorry if my opinions swayed you.