Two for today. Below the plays I posted a small writeup I did on playing chalk after my close call yesterday on the Yanks. Good luck.
Detroit +220 over YANKEES 300/660
Redman is a very effective lefty. He has had success against most of the Yankees lineup in the past. Pettite has been hit by a few of the TIgers' hitters. Stanton and Karsay should both be unavialable here after working the last three days. Henriquez, Santana and Acevedo have quietly turned into an effective late game trio for the Tigers. Bullpen advantage and the success of the lineups in the past against the starters give Detroit the edge here.
White Sox +100 over KANSAS CITY 300/300
Ritchie seemed to really find his stuff in his last outing while Suppan was hit hard by Anaheim. The White Sox have been the biggest underachievers in baseball this season largely because of their bullpen. Yesterday their pen performed fabulously and I believe they have turned the corner. Kansas City has had too much bullpen use lately, especially coming off the doubleheader Monday and having played 7 games in the six days since the All Star break. Royals do come in having won 5 straight but with Ritchie having the advantage over Suppan and the White Sox bullpen looking stronger tonight, the Sox are the play.
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Yesterday showcased a couple of poignant lessons about betting baseball favorites.
1) Play favorites flat rather than "to win". Had I played the Yankees to try to win $500 at -225 I would have had $1125 on a bet which very easily could have lost. The Yanks were outhit and if not for one big inning where everything fell their way and a clutch homer late, they looked like losers. Yes, the play ultimately won, but it just goes to show the peril of risking huge amounts to try to win normal amounts when playing big chalk.
2) It is hard to bet big dogs in baseball. Last year I had very good success for the first four months or so of the season betting big underdogs in baseball, but this year I have not. The problem is that there is a reason these dogs are so large. A team like Toronto that can be a +200 dog at home has bullpen holes galore and starting pitching that is almost sure to get hit. Games like those are tough to win. They will hit occasionally, but even in a case last night where they may have deserved the win, you will still lose a number of big dogs is frustrating fashion.
3) Always look for value. I played last night's game because I felt Weaver would be a stopper. That was really the only value involved in the play. There wasn't a huge bullpen advantage, lineup advantage or recent evidence of exceptional play that made the Yanks worthy of laying -225. I got lucky and the play won, but long term making plays on a whim rather than searching for true value will cost you.
Detroit +220 over YANKEES 300/660
Redman is a very effective lefty. He has had success against most of the Yankees lineup in the past. Pettite has been hit by a few of the TIgers' hitters. Stanton and Karsay should both be unavialable here after working the last three days. Henriquez, Santana and Acevedo have quietly turned into an effective late game trio for the Tigers. Bullpen advantage and the success of the lineups in the past against the starters give Detroit the edge here.
White Sox +100 over KANSAS CITY 300/300
Ritchie seemed to really find his stuff in his last outing while Suppan was hit hard by Anaheim. The White Sox have been the biggest underachievers in baseball this season largely because of their bullpen. Yesterday their pen performed fabulously and I believe they have turned the corner. Kansas City has had too much bullpen use lately, especially coming off the doubleheader Monday and having played 7 games in the six days since the All Star break. Royals do come in having won 5 straight but with Ritchie having the advantage over Suppan and the White Sox bullpen looking stronger tonight, the Sox are the play.
**********
Yesterday showcased a couple of poignant lessons about betting baseball favorites.
1) Play favorites flat rather than "to win". Had I played the Yankees to try to win $500 at -225 I would have had $1125 on a bet which very easily could have lost. The Yanks were outhit and if not for one big inning where everything fell their way and a clutch homer late, they looked like losers. Yes, the play ultimately won, but it just goes to show the peril of risking huge amounts to try to win normal amounts when playing big chalk.
2) It is hard to bet big dogs in baseball. Last year I had very good success for the first four months or so of the season betting big underdogs in baseball, but this year I have not. The problem is that there is a reason these dogs are so large. A team like Toronto that can be a +200 dog at home has bullpen holes galore and starting pitching that is almost sure to get hit. Games like those are tough to win. They will hit occasionally, but even in a case last night where they may have deserved the win, you will still lose a number of big dogs is frustrating fashion.
3) Always look for value. I played last night's game because I felt Weaver would be a stopper. That was really the only value involved in the play. There wasn't a huge bullpen advantage, lineup advantage or recent evidence of exceptional play that made the Yanks worthy of laying -225. I got lucky and the play won, but long term making plays on a whim rather than searching for true value will cost you.
