7/20 MLB Plays from morning 'til night

[Nick Douglas]

Plays at all times of the day today. I have yet to have great success with totals this year, but I have one for today that I feel is strong. Two side plays as well including one that starts in just under an hour. Good luck.

Boston +160 over YANKEES 300/480

Yanks have used Stanton and Karsay the last three days, which likely leaves only Mendoza as a setup guy for Rivera. El Duque struggled in his last outing and I don't see anything to indicate a turnaround. Haney has been used quite a bit by Boston but the rest of their pen should be available and in good form. Arrojo is not the greatest starter, but he is relatively effective. If you look at the Yankees' last five games, they have two losses and three one run wins over garbage teams Toronto and Detroit. Put bluntly, they are not playing their best ball right now. Boston is playing some of their best ball and that should show up today in another victory.

Minnesota -140 over DETROIT 420/300

I really like what Detroit has done as far as restructuring their team, but this is not the time for them to win. Their bullpen is shaky and they have no lefthanded reliever. Bernero should blossom into a great pitcher someday but he is getting hit hard every time out over his last several starts. Mays has a history of success against the Tigers and the Twins lineup is scoring lots of runs. Add to that the fact that Minnesota's key bullpen guys are all rested and ready and everything here points to a Twins win.

Arizona vs. SAN DIEGO under 8 1/2 +100 300/300

Perez is a young lefty who throws BB's. Arizona does have a good record of past performance against lefthanders, but not a guy like this, and not while they are struggling to score runs. San Diego is scoring runs, but they face a guy who has been very hot in AAA in Patterson. He has won his last five decisions there. Hallowell umps tonight, and while he has a good over record this year, I have noticed in his last three times or so behind the plate that his strike zone has been wide. The icing on the cake is that this time of year the thick marine layer at night in Southern California makes it difficult for the ball to travel. All of that should be enough to stay under a good sized number at a good price.

 

[fletcher]

nick fyi they have not throwen 3 stright days wen was a complete game.

karsey last 2 days 10 pitches
stanton 17

stanton wen -0 thur 11 fri 6 pitches
karsey wen-0 thur 3 and fri 7

thats not allot of pitchers for middle and set up men that can go 3 innings a night. and dbacks hae faced lhp's just as good as what they will see tonight and hit them very well,patterson can pitch just alittle heads up for you not trying to change your mind but yanks pen is far from over used the last 3 days or the week for that matter.

good luck.

 

[Nick Douglas]

You are right. They have appeared in 3 of the last 4. My mistake. Apologies for that.

Their pitch counts were small but, at least in my experience, I have found that pitching 3 of 4 days still wears on setup guys because they still have to warm up and get their arms loose more often than would be ideal.

Dbacks themselves may be a good play because Patterson is supposed to be good and with batter having never seen him, he should have an edge. I do like Perez and I don't think there are too many guys with stuff like his. I watched his last game entirely and some snippets before that and this kid looks legit to me.

Just curious... Do you like the Yanks and the over of the Dbacks game, then?

 

[JimO]

Pods total

Pods total

Ump Hollowell is 13-5 over this year averaging 12 runs a game.

This could be a tough spot for Ari pitcher Patterson in his MLB debut. He's pitching on the road against a hot team and gets an over umpire. Patterson was not special at AAA (4.10 era, 78 hits in 75 innings); he's only starting because Rick Helling is hurt.

Perez looks to have good stuff but has given up a too many hr's and walks imho.

Phil Nevin and Matt Williams are both off the DL and rounding into form.

Although SD is 0-9-1 under the last 10, won't surprise me if this one goes over..

 

[ndnfan]

Nick.....A couple of things I'm looking at on the San Diego-Arizona game:

I got the OVER at 8 at a book last night, but the difference between 8 and 8.5 is still not as significant as say when you go up one more run on the total...but I still would definately NOT touch the Under in this one.

What's interesting is that the 4 games ARizona has played in San Diego this season they only scored a total of 4 runs in 4 games. Of course that's interesting, but I really think they do get a few runs today.

Like Fletcher said, Arizona does hit lefties well. Arizona hitting .275 vs lefties for the season. Over the last 10 games they are hitting .309

You also have Arizona 3rd in the league in walks vs Perez who will walk some. Along with Hollowell who only has a 60.3% strike call this year.

Decipher this stuff how you want, but I don't see Patterson doing that much either. First of all San Diego's gonna be highly motivated to get a win in this one, cause they are getting Randy Johnson tomorrow. Plus you throw in the fact it's Patterson's MAJOR LEAGUE DEBUT being played ON THE ROAD, it's gonna be tough enough. You throw in the fact that Patterson's gonna have Hollowell's tight strikezone back there, I don't see an impressive debut....rookies have a hard enough time with their nerves, let alone an ump like this, I definately look for San Diego to get some runs.

Just my .02

Good luck today Nick.......I'm on this Boston game as well.

-ndnfan

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks for the comments, guys. Believe me I appreciate all comments, even if they are in direct opposition to what I wrote or what I am playing. That is what I like about Mad Jack's

I did look at Hollowell's stats and they do point over overall. But I am just saying that in watching some recent games that he umped starting back when my Brewers played at Minny just before the All Star break, he has had a pretty wide strike zone.

Arizona has a great BA against lefties over their last 10, but let me look closer. They have played 9 games since the break and faced 3 lefties. They rocked Hampton, who stinks and has stuff nowhere near Perez. They were blanked by Ishii for 7 2/3, who also doesn't have stuff as good, but is a better overall pitcher because he is smart. They did get 9 hits and 3 runs on Perez in 6 innings, but Perez is struggling.

Also, I want to point out that Arizona has scored more than 4 runs just 3 times since the break and two of those times were in Colorado. If Arizona wins, this game won't go over unless they score at least 5 and that should be difficult. I also should note that Brenly should have no problem using his entire bullpen tonight since Schilling and Johnson are on deck.

I guess we'll have to wait and see on stuff like Hollowell's strike zone and Patterson's ability and Perez' control. It should be interesting.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Padres' bullpen and BK made me sweat that one out way too much. Glad to get the profit today. Have a good night all and good luck tomorrow.