7/24 MLB Plays

[Nick Douglas]

Three plays for tonight. Good luck. Any comments or questions are always appreciated.

FLORIDA +130 over Atlanta 400/520

Moss had an effective outing in his last start but judging by his overall performance over the last month he should get hit hard. Tejera is a brilliant lefty who should give the Braves fits all day. Both bullpens have been bulletproof lately while both offenses have had comparable production. The significant starting pitching advantage gives the Marlins the edge in this spot.

Montreal +100 over METS 400/400

I like the way Montreal came back down 4-0 yesterday to nearly tie or win the game late. They also have their ace going. Mets' bullpen showed enough weakness yesterday to make things difficult for them against Vazquez and a good Montreal bullpen today.

Oakland -135 over ANAHEIM 540/400

I just have to keep fading Sele. He is giving up way too many hits at well over 1.00 per IP. Just in watching him you can see him labor. Hudson was hit hard by the Angels last time he faced them but over his career he has excellent numbers against them. Angels' bullpen injuries have not hurt them yet but with Sele going tonight will be the night they will get tested.

 

[Spock]

Nick .. have a Qs.

Yesterday was reading your comments as always.

I myself was surprised to see ya on Milwaukee day before after putting Houston as a strong play. Just one of those days I guess.

In one of the posts yesterday you mentioned that Miwaukee looked like coming back and that is a good sign.

Mebbe its a good sign but is it not a bad sign that they are down every game. How many times can a team really rally
( A team like Milwaukee). How much importance to pay to this.

I see that same logic is applied to Montreal as well. Montrea in a big funk and have lost a lot on the road. Mets wanna make a run after Atlanta and look to me motivated to beat Montreal. Of course Montreal much better team than Milwaukee so comparison cannt be the same.

Even if pitcher has edge for Montreal is there enuf run support. Mets offence also clickin and are at home. Is it a worthwhile play is my Qs.

I am passin on the game but wanted to put down my thoughts.
Appreciate your views as always

Good luck !!!
Spock

 

[Nick Douglas]

Milwaukee has, in fact, lost three times in a row now after being down the day before and coming back. In my opinion this is more a fluke than a real trend. I say this because I have been looking at teams that fit that scenario and overall they have been doing well. That and the advantage with Vazquez is why I like Montreal today.

The reversal from Houston to Milwaukee was pretty dumb. Houston was posted overnight and I had only handicapped a few factors, most notably Miller's dominance of the Brewers. But then the more I looked at it, the more I noticed that I felt the Brewers were a good play at such a large number. THe problem is something that Jack alluded to on his page today: I didn't think they would win the game. I thought (and still think) the Brewers had "value" as a +210 dog (and if you watched the game they had many very good chances to win late where a slide at the plate or a third strike call by Hirschbeck going the other way could have done it) but I wasn't confident that they would win. That should have kept me off that game entirely, but it didn't.

I assure you that I think the Spos will win today and I also believe they have very good "value" at even money. Heck, I think they have good "value" at -120.

As far as the reasons for playing this angle, the number one reason is that scoring late runs shows bullpen weakness, and that is often a factor not accounted for in the lines. In addition is creates a hunger on the losing team to get the win the next day. Obviously it doesn't always hit and you have to be selective, but I think it is a good play in general.

 

[Spock]

thanx for the reply.

As you said the bull pen may not be factored into the line.
Do you know where they may list as to how one team's bull pen has done against another team in the past.

Releivers ..
Closers ..

May help to cap games.
I pay attention to the pitcher a lot. Milwaukee's pitcher i think was 0-8 against Houston and his team was 1-9 in 10 career starts against Houston. Historically he has struggled but yes as u said .. it was not a romp home and they had their chances.

I have not yet seen the numbers for the Montreal game but will defi take a look at it and I hope they win

Great to see ya on the +ve side Nick way ahead of projected bankroll.

 

[Felonious Monk]

Does anyone know the status on Vlady?

I believe he left the game yesterday due to a bruised knee but will that keep him out of today's lineup?

Thanks.

 

[Nick Douglas]

He is currently listed as day-to-day on Covers. Don't know any more than that.

The way I handicap bullpens is mostly just by recent performance and recent workrate. If you want pitcher/batter matchups, I think there are some places to get them, but I am not sure. Maybe try ESPN Insider.

 

[IE]

quote from montreal gazette today.....

"Vladimir Guerrero, Tatis and Cabrera even showed half-hearted bunt attempts on first pitches at one point or another Guerrero banged his knee on a running catch at the wall on a long fly ball from Mets right-fielder Jeromy Burnitez in the sixth.

He left the game in the bottom of the seventh, replaced by brother Wilton, who in turn was replaced by pinch-hitter Wil Cordero once Cabrera and Floyd reached base in the eighth.

It's not serious enough to keep Guerrero out of the lineup tonight.

"

also..


2B vidro highly doubtful again tonight.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Belated thanks for the info, IE. GL tonight.