8/6 MLB Plays

[Nick Douglas]

One for today. GL. I will be around if anyone has questions or comments. Just post them here and I will get to them ASAP.

CLEVELAND -155 over Tampa Bay 200/129

Cleveland is back home after a decent road trip and a day off. They are hitting very well and their bullpen has shown up also. Tampa comes off the tough loss yesterday and they look like they are about to hit a slide.

 

[Meestermike]

GL on this one Nick..

I'm playing Tampa today...

CLEVELAND is 2-11 vs. the ML against a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season.
CLEVELAND is 4-10 vs. the ML against AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 vs. the ML when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=38%) this season.

Jorge SOSA ~ Road Games 3.46 ERA & 1.077 WHIP

Charles Nagy ~ Home Games 13.50 ERA & 3.250 WHIP

 

[Hoops]

Tampa has won 2 of 3, 5-5 last ten games, not sure why they are about to hit a 'slide'. Same could be said of the Indians I would think, 4-6 last ten games and lost 4 in a row before their win on Sunday.

What I don't understand about this play is with a entire slate of games why anyone would play Nagy as a -55 fave (regardless of who they are playing). Not trying to nitpick, I just don't think this is the type of play people should be making if they are trying to show a profit in the long term. Indians could very well win this game 9-3 or something like that, but that still wouldn't change what I think about this particular play.

Regardless, good luck with the play and I'm surprised more people haven't commented on 'Signs' yet. Such a good movie, I'm inclined to go see it again.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Hoops,

I agree 100% about SIGNS. I am gonna see it again as well, it is only a matter of when.

Tampa lost yesterday and they scored 3 runs before even recording an out in the first and then could not score again the rest of the game against a pretty weak pitching staff. Their bullpen also obviously showed weakness as they blew the late 3-1 lead and lost the game. In my opinion those are indicators of an impending slide for a young team that could easily lose its confidence. Rays have played their last 11 in a row at home and went 5-6, which is decent. The problem is they are an amazing 14-38 on the road and with 6 road games coming they could be headed for trouble.

Mike,

As far as Sosa goes, he could be in trouble here in my opinon. He walked 5 batters and gave up 4 runs with 2 dingers in 5 2/3 last time out. Vambrano is no longer in the pen and Creek has been traded. Colome and yan both were hit hard yesterday and threw at least 30 pitches. That leaves Harper, Phelps and Kent available to clean up Sosa's mess if he leaves one. Since Sosa has worked 10 2/3 in his last 2 starts combined and given up a combined 10 walks, that does not look good.

Nagy obviously has been no All Star this season, but he did show signs of progress in his last start in only giving up 2 earned runs.

As far as the trends go I am not a trends player so I really can't comment on those.

I don't know, maybe laying -155 on Nagy doesn't constitute the exact definition of "value", but every way I look at this game shows an advantage for Cleveland in my opinion. GL to both of you tonight, except of course, on this game .

(edit is for earned runs rather than runs)

 

[wigs]

good luck Nick, by no means am i an expert handicapper but i agree with hoops here, nagy doesnt look like he should be pitching in the bigs in my opinion. the guy is topping out at 86 mph(and he's no moyer). i will give ya this, no one has really faced much of him on the d-rays, grieve is about it and he's 1-16 lifetime on him. however, batters are hitting .364 off him right now, lefties.402-- i know he just came back and has a few starts under his belt now but i just dont see him lasting much longer in the bigs- i'd want a big zone if i'm backing nagy today(best start was with meals on jul 20) but umps arent available yet--

also from cleve paper "Karim Garcia is expected to be in uniform tonight for the Tribe. That means a roster move will have to be made.
The path was cleared for Garcia's arrival when rookie left fielder Ben Broussard was optioned to Class AAA Buffalo to make room for Travis Fryman over the weekend in Seattle."

again, good luck with your play--
(just saw your second post, good info on tb's bullpen situation, this over could be a possibility)

 

[ssd]

Nick-
Be careful Here. Nagy has very little speed difference b/t his fastball (86 top) and his off-speed (76-78). If he is not getting the corners, he will get hit hard and often. If TB is patient, they will hit him. Over looks like the play here. And, I believe this Cleveland team has been horrible after an off-day.
Good luck. Enjoy your posts and believe you are an excellent capper. Hope this info helps.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks, guys. Over might be something to look at but I usually struggle with totals so I am sticking to this side. GL

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

hey, bud.....im with ya on cleve....we can go down togother....
misery luvs company....just kiddin...cleve. will win this one...one way or the other....

gluck tonite, burgh.

 

[thisisbad]

Good call there Nick

 

[Hoops]

Good call, Nick. Looks like Tampa doesn't like to score outside of the first inning.

 

[gecko]

Good call, Nick. Looks like Tampa doesn't like to score outside of the first inning.

Maybe Hal McRae needs to push his players a little more..........to produce runs, that is. :look: kurby

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks, guys. I'll be the first to admit that was a fortunate win. Shoulda been a called third strike before Guitierez' two run single and then the DP started by Vizquel in the 8th was a miracle play.

It was kind of wierd how Tampa's pattern matched their pattern from last game. In watching the game it seemed to be more Nagy than the D-Rays there. He started getting ahead in the count and using his curve (the one major league pitch he still has) effectively.

GL to you guys on the late games if you played them and then of course tomorrow. One last note I want to give is to be EXTREMELY cautious if you are thinking about playing Clemens for a make up bet. Nobody knows what to expect and the Royals' offense is on a tear. Suppan looked absolutely great in almost shutting down the Twins last time out. I know there is a temptation to think the Yankees "have to" win the series but just don't go mortgaging the ol' homestead playing a cold team vs. a hot team.

 

[gecko]

good point by Nick on tomorrow's Yanks/Royals game. It's certainly doesn't warrant a "mortgage the ol' homestead" play on NY.

I still remember getting burnt by the Rocket in his "comeback game" last year on 9/25, losing at Yankee Stadium to Tanyan "I don't like to get pushed around" Sturtze and those tricky D-Rays by the score of 4-0. :nono:

 

[mr. wizard]

Way to pull it out Nick. Nice job.



Mr. Wizard

 

[Meestermike]

Good call Nick.

Congrats

 

[gsp]

Nice call tonight Nick. Agree with you on the Yankees. In fact, from here on out you had better know the ump before playing any big fav. Good luck tomorrow.