9/13 NFL Lightning Analysis and Plays

Lightning

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Feb 12, 2002
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Don't have time to post much anymore which sucks cause I am having one of my best years but today I am roaring to go with 2 hours till gametime so here goes.


Early Games

Chiefs +3 over BUFFALO ... I like an outright win here by the superior team ... if line is 2.5, I'd buy the half point becasue if Buffalo does win, it shouldn't be by more than a FG.

DOLPHINS/Patriots under 42.5 ... was considering playing the Patriots as they are still a much better team than the Fish but I have a strange feeling about this one as many people seem to be all over the Pats. I think it's a tight game without too much scoring which keeps the Fish in it.

BEARS/49ers ... passing on this one but I would lean 49ers ... even with Pickett starting, the Niners play hard and the Bears offense is not very good ... looks like a low-scoring game as well but the under is too low to take.

GIANTS/Vikings over 45 ... I think this game gets wild and although I would lean the G-men to cover, I feel the over is a much better play here as the Vkings are playing better of late and could backdoor cover this one.

LIONS/Cards ... passing on this one ... not a lot to say except 2 disappointing teams. Lions have some talent but WR's and RB are banged up and Harrington is horrendous. If I had to choose, I'd take the Cards getting more than 4 but I cannot recommend this game at all.

JAGUARS/Ravens ... another pass ... line is too high to back the strange inconsistent Jags offense ... Ravens are a monster bust this year and I just don't see any value here whatsoever.

COLTS/Texans ... pass ... COLTS have won very meeting between these teams ... won by 18 at Houston earlier in the year and smoked the Texans last year at the RCA Dome. However, I cannot back a 17.5 point favorite in the NFL. Texans are playing better lately and the Colts could have a letdown since they will battle the Steelers next Monday night after coming off a huge win against the rival Pats last Monday night.
 
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Lightning

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Feb 12, 2002
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Late Games

Redskins pk over BUCS ... Tampa started off playing above their heads and are now playing more like the team they really are ... a fraud ... the Skins and and QB Brunell are playing well and should win this game.

PANTHERS -9 over Jets ... The Panthers are one of the better teams in the NFC. They have been a bit inconsistent especially with erradic QB play from Delhomme but unless they self-destruct, they should win this game rather handily against the banged up Jets. Herm Edwards always gets his guys to play hard and I don't think they will fold and give up but I just don't think they can hang in this game unless the Panthers let them.

Broncos -3 over RAIDERS ... I am teetering on this game ... was leaning Broncos early in the week but the Raiders have been decent this year and lost many close games that could have gone either way ... both Chief games, the Eagles game, etc... they are not a 'bad' team like they were last season. As of now I am passing this one but I may still make a play pending line movement.

Rams +6.5 over SEAHAWKS ... initially, I liked the Seahawks here but upon further review, I realized that these 2 teams always play tight games. The Hawks won the first meeting 37-31 and the Rams were not playing that well at the time. Today, they get back some of their top players in Bulger and Holt. Martz is not there to screw things up and take RB Jackson out of the game. I definitely think this game is close and I would not be at all surprised by a Rams victory.

FALCONS -9 over Packers ... I love the Falcons in this game. The Packers defense has actually exceeded expectations this year and done a decent job. The offense however has had more players wounded than Alqueda. The Falcons just win ... plain and simple ... adn this game should not be a problem for them. Superior defense and an offense that gets the jobs done could spell blowout. My only fear would be a backdoor cover much like the Jets last week against the Chargers.

STEELERS/Browns ... passing this one as I can't find any value here. Steelers seem average without Big Ben for some reason and the Browns are playing as good as can be expected for rookie head coach Romeo Crennel. If I had to pick, I'd probably have to choose the Steelers since they are at home but since I don't I see no reason to force a play here.

Any comments or feedback is appreciated...

Good Luck!
 
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Lightning

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Feb 12, 2002
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Looking at coming up with the best 3-team 9 points teaser possible today and would like some input. Although 'teasers' definiely can be sucker bets, I find that in the NFL they are very useful since most games are not blowouts since even the worst teams in the NFL have talented players.

Today I am looking at:
FALCONS (pk)
PANTHERS (pk)
Chiefs +11.5
49ers +21.5
Giants (pk)
Rams (+15.5)
 

Lightning

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Feb 12, 2002
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EAGLES/Cowboys .... passing this one as the Eagles really need to step up and play a solid game tonight but I feel that even if that happens, they could lose to a better couched team who is on the rise. Andy Reid seems to have lost it this year ... the playcalling has gone to chit and the offense just looks lost and out of sync. As an Eagles fan, I do believe the Eagles are going to play well and they can win this game but I cannot back them at this point giving points ... especially to a team that physically dominated them not that long ago.

If I had to make a play tonight, I would lean to the under as I thinik the Eagles defense will come to play and the offense will struggle without TO.

Good Luck and GO EAGLES!
 
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