93% of the time, the pointspread means NOTHING!

[JOE IN NY]

Just read this and wanted to share it.

Since the merger in '69, there have been 64 games to decide the championships.

Overall, the favorites and home teams have been the dominating force. In the 64 games played since '70....get this.....only 5 pointspreads had an outcome for your bet! That means that only 7% of the games did the pointspread come into play. You know what that means right? Just pick the WINNER, don't worry about the spread. 1984-Redskins beat the Lions, but fail to cover 10 pt. spread. 1991 - Buffalo beat Denver, but didn't cover 11.5 pt. spread. 1995, you'll remember this one, Colts Hail Mary pass falls short, and Steelers beat the Colts.....but didn't cover the 11.5 pt spread.Two years ago, the biggest dog ever, the TB Bucs getting 14.5 points, lost 11-6. Last year I'm sure we'll all remember that the Eagles fought the Rams tough as an 11 point dog, and lost 29-24 but DID cover.

So how have the dogs done in these championship games? Well, in the 64 games, the dog won OUTRIGHT 20 times! That's a little over 30% of the time.

For you Raider doubters, thinking the line might be a little rich, know this, there have been only 4 teams that were dogs of more than 7 points that wound up winning outright, and all of them have been since 1990. Giants did it in 1990, Chargers in '94, the Falcons in '98, and in 2002, last year, the Patriots did it!

Looking at how smaller dogs did, 4 points or less, nine teams out of the 20 were getting this amount, and figuring in home field advantage of about 3-4 points, these games were basically "even" games as far as the spread goes. In the 20 games, the AFC had 11 upsets, and the NFC 9.

AFC home teams are 18-13-1 ATS. Believe it or not, the NFC had the SAME exact stat....18-13-1. However, in the NFC the last 22 years, 14 home teams have covered the number!

Some of you have seen me state that in the Pro's during the regular season, just pick the winner, as 83% of the time, the pointspread doesn't come into play!! With the current stat that only 7% of the time the spread comes into play in the Championship games, 64 of them, that means that

93% of the time, the pointspread means NOTHING!
Pretty hard to believe isn't it? So if you like your team a lot, just bet it and forget it! Just like that Rotisserie Grill you see on the "infomercials"....."Just set it......and forget it!" But it would seem that if you like the home fave, the odds are a lot better in your favor, than taking the visiting dog, although 4 big dogs HAVE covered since 1990, that's one every three years since '90! Who knows, maybe it is the Titans turn!

 

[CWood97]

Makes me like the Raiders even more, didn't think that was possible!

As I said in a previous post, I am very happy my money is riding on the best team in football.

 

[Blazer]

Good article. Smart points , but I wonder what were those spreads? Take into consdieration that everytime the undog wins it ignores the line and I bet most of the lines were closer to 3, 4,or 5, than 8.

 

[TheShrimp]

To follow up on what Blazer said...

To say, "just pick the winner because 90% of the time the team who covers wins" is not necessarily useful in either game this weekend, or any game ever for that matter.

For starters, we've already seen 3 dogs cover the spread this post season without winning, but that's really beside the point.

Secondly, it doesn't give any advice about HOW to pick that winner.

Thirdly, and most importantly, EVERY SINGLE TIME A FAVE COVERS THAT MEANS THEY WON, so your figure automatically starts out at (roughly) 50% and grows from there. So, you're really just looking at what percentage of time the dog covers does it win.

Now, we know one of three scenarios happens.
1) Dog loses and doesn't cover.
2) Dog loses and covers.
3) Dog wins.

1 happens about 50% of the time (fave covers). 2&3 happen about 50% of the time (dog covers). All you're saying is that "Given that 2 or 3 happens, 3 usually happens." Well, that's not suprising at all, and it completely ignores the size of the pointspead.

For 3 point speads, you probably see the breakdown like this:
1) 50%
2) 10%
3) 40%

And right there you got the 90% of the time the team that wins covers. Considering the final matchups are usually between 2 top-ranked teams, you probably see a lot of them in this 3 pt range.

However, for 7.5 point spreads, you probably see the breakdown like this:
1) 50%
2) 35%
3) 15%

And for 10+ point spreads,
1) 50%
2) 45%
3) 5%

Now, it is useful, and surprising, to know that the dog has only covered in Championship weekend roughly 40% of the time. But to say, "just pick the winner" not only ignores the difficulty inherent in that, it ignores the size of the spread completely.

 

[djv]

Shrimp you could say the home team does have a slight advantage when you go to pick the winner. In other words I agree with both points above. Yes just pick a winner is ok. But understand the home team has a slight advantage. Next then is if you get 8 points and your a road dog. You may get a slight advantage there because of the 8 points. So capping all other parts of these game still is a good idea. For me I did do that earlier inthe week and went with both home teams. But by moving fast got Philly at -3 and Oak -7. Both jumbed half points in one hour. Now we have Philly-4 Oak-7.5 and even -8. But with the majior money still to come Friday,Saturday & Sunday. Will be interesting to see if lines sit or move one direction or the other.
GL.

 

[JOE IN NY]

Shrimp you make some good points. I did read that Single digit Favorites are
51-0-2 ATS if that helps you or not I'm not sure.

 

[TheShrimp]

Huh? Single digit favorites are 51-0-2 ATS?

Do you mean 51-10-2?

The facts you posted are good to know. The dominance of the faves ATS is impressive.

I was just trying to say that while something like "90% of winners also cover" sounds impressive at first, it doesn't really boil down to any more than saying "80% of dog covers are SU wins for the dog" because you already have 50% with the fave covers.

GL

 

[Bluemound Freak]

No shit? Damn I must be the dumbest man alive, or I just happen to bet on the damn wrong side of that 93% thingy..............


I always knew I should have been a gunslinger, cuz I am usually on the 7% side of this equation!