a bad trade : uncover calls

selkirk

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 16, 1999
2,147
13
0
Canada
over the course of the year make on average over 300 trades, most of these have to do with options.

anyways a bad trade is not just where you lose money....it is when you ignore general rules and lose more money than you should.

acutally if a stock breaks down and I sell, then that is genrally a good trade, because you preserve your gains or limit losses.

The Bad Trade.
in Feb and March continued to write uncovered and covered calls on most of my portfolio.

in the market uncovered calls were working great, the premiums were high and the stocks were flat to down, so they would just expire worthless.

I had uncovered calls on TD bank, and 1/3 in covered calls, these were after the stock drifted lower were now 30% out of the money.

however the cdn. financials starting on March 9th began a rally following the market in general and the US financials.

remember phoning a friend about a week into the rally he had one of those double dog etf on Toronto. told him many times to dump it, the markets were going up on bullish news, bearish news was being ignored....companies were not beating earnings from a year ago, but recently lowered estimates.

the cdn. banks were in much better shape, cdn. real estated did not blow up as much and balance sheets were good. also yield of 7-10%. cdn. banks hate to cut their divs.

even told some people that they needed some cdn. banks becuase they were going on a run....

still kept the uncovered calls, I wrote other options, such as puts, that worked out...however have no idea why did not want to admit this trade was a mistake.

many of the trades were working out, maybe thought this had a chance to, so waiteid for earnings....thought they would beat the beaten down estimates....also other cdn. banks beat the estimates.

could have covered before or after earnings quickly, and still waited, have no idea why...anyways covered a few weeks ago.

small footnote: also covered my mistake at the worse possible time, as with this correction could have saved some money.

does not really matter, it was a terrible trade because I ingored what the market was telling me, and the trade.


note: ag stocks are correcting, talked about this before, however was surprised when they held up on the potash news, however now they are falling.

good stocks for the long term however all my positons will have covered calls on them and will not have a full position.
volume may dissapoint and then maybe price.

energy stocks oil broke below 65, the economic numbers espcially employment are not good.

sold out of some energy and some wish I had, all positions covered calls.

believe we stay flat to down slightly 10%. currently hard to find leaders that will take the market sharply higher....

thanks
selkirk
 

DOGS THAT BARK

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 13, 1999
19,472
142
63
Bowling Green Ky
Citi and several of big boys have earnings out next week--that should prove quite interesting on market--will make sure all stops are in order--however several already gone--but will buy back at some point in time if their fundamentals stay the same.

Lots of money on sideline and never seen market react to bads news as "could be worse" like during the spring--strange times were in--but interesting :)
 

selkirk

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 16, 1999
2,147
13
0
Canada
DTB agree with you on how the market has reacted to negative news, though that is usaully a very bullish sign.

a bounce up was not a shock to me, though the amount was, I mean thought the cdn. financials could come back even had calls (most of them covered 50% above) however for instant cdn. financials increased as a group over 70% since March.

will look at oil if it recover will add to my position in energy, resources, ag ect...will be more quick to take gains, and losses... if the market moves higher resources should move to.... probably tech will also lead, though have nothing in the group.


like some of the US financials probably will re-enter JPM, and WFC. BAC could have a good run, just hate mangement so will avoid.

thanks
selkirk
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top