Okay, I'm steamed.
I've been up all lnight and I am DETERMINED to make money on these upcoming NFL playoff games. If I have to cut my left nut off and sell a kidney, I'll do it. I've been looking at some possible scenarios, and would like some feedback from people who may have a better grasp of the moneyline prices of some of these teams. Since I rarely play moneylines, this is an area whare I have to make some educated guesses. Try and follow what I am proposing here, and see if you agree.
SITUATION: I like what I see in TENNESSEE. This team is perhaps the hottest in the AFC right now. They have CLINCHED the division title and can clinch a first round bye and home field in the first game with a win over HOUSTON on Sunday. I realize that HOUSTON has pulled off a few upsets, but lets assume TENNESSEE wins that game (SU) and gets the first round bye, plus a playoff game at home in the first round (TENN is favored by 8 in that game against HOU).
With me so far?
Here's the "can't lose" scenario:
1. BET $1,000 on TENN to win the AFC Conference (not the Super Bowl, but the conference only). Do it RIGHT NOW. They are currently listed at 4 to 1 everywhere I have looked. SIDE NOTE: I like this bet anyway as a futures play. But we are interested in a hedge, can't lose bet here.
2. TENN gets a first-round bye, and then they will likley play PITTSBURGH, INDIANAPOLIS, or CLEVELAND. TENN will play the winner of the first round playoff game and WILL BE FAVORED AT HOME. That's a given. Worst-case scenario is TENN plays PITT in which case the TITANS are at worst -3 to -3.5 point favorites. That means the moneyline price on the STEELERS to win that game is about +140. I'm guessing here. Correct me if anyone thinks my numbers are off.
3. We lay whatever dollar amount we need to ensure we cover the $1,000 investment on TENN. So, that means we lay $700 (estimate) on PITTSBURGH on the moneyline at +140. I could give an exact figure, but I'm not going to frag out a calculator. WORST CASE SCENARIO is PITTSBURGH pulls the upset in whcih case we get the PUSH. We win our bet on PITT moneyline, but lose the $1000 investment on the Titans. NO LOSS/NO PROFIT.
4. In the event we get a piss-poor team that sneaks in, we actually have to invest less money on the monelyline ticket. So, the PITTSBURGH moneyline is a worst case-scenario.
5. Let's say TENN wins that first playoff game. Striaght up win is all we need in the game. Home teams with a first round bye usually win versus teams that did not have the week off, so this is clearly a strong bet. So far, we have $1,000 riding on TENN. But, we have lost (at most) $700 on PITTSBURGH.
6. In the AFC Championship game, we bet the moneyline of TENNESSEE's opponent. Here's where the guesswork comes in. So, I need some help. We bet the OPPONENT on the moneyline -- which in the worst-case scenario would be OAKLAND (top seed in AFC). I put the line on that game at OAK -6, which means RAIDERS are probably close to a -$200 moneyline favorite. Is that estimate close? Anyone? So, we invest $2,000 on the Raiders moneyline.
7. So far, we have invested (at most):
$700 on PITT
$2000 on OAK
If BOTH of these teams lose and TITANS win the AFC, we win $4,000. That's a $1300 profit. No risk.
8. These are "worst-case" scenarios. In the vent that OAKLAND gets upset in the first round, TENN would become the host of the AFC Championship game, would be favored, and we would only have to lay $1000 on the moneyline. So, that scenario potentially gives us a payoff of $2,300.
9. Another very unlikely, but scary scenario would be to have TENN win the first game, then have much of the team go down with injuries in that same game. That could mean (in a bizarre situation) a moneyline price of -$300 on the RAIDERS in which case we would have to play it just to get our money back.
Other than HOUSTON upsetting TENNESSEE next week, what am I missing that could conceivably disrupt this FREE-ROLL situation?
Finally, I am not suggesting these exact dollar amount be placed on the teams. We could bet them in a manner where we ensure a profit no matter what happens. That would require a mix up of moeny on the ML and PS, but would be to complicated to speculate on at this time.
I'd lke to hear some thoughts on this, particularly fomr those who have more experience with moneyline wagers.
Thanks,
Nolan Dalla
ADDED NOTE: I see that my OAK -6 vs. TENN at -$200 estimate was a bit off. Assuming you agree with these numbers, that requires me to lay -$250. At -5, that's usually about -$210. At -7, that's usually about -$280. So, assuming that -7 would be the top side of an OAK spread over TENN, we would only earn about $500 in profit. I can't see OAK being favored by any more than -7. Again, the upside of this is if OAK loses in the first round, then we cahs big no matter what happens.
I've been up all lnight and I am DETERMINED to make money on these upcoming NFL playoff games. If I have to cut my left nut off and sell a kidney, I'll do it. I've been looking at some possible scenarios, and would like some feedback from people who may have a better grasp of the moneyline prices of some of these teams. Since I rarely play moneylines, this is an area whare I have to make some educated guesses. Try and follow what I am proposing here, and see if you agree.
SITUATION: I like what I see in TENNESSEE. This team is perhaps the hottest in the AFC right now. They have CLINCHED the division title and can clinch a first round bye and home field in the first game with a win over HOUSTON on Sunday. I realize that HOUSTON has pulled off a few upsets, but lets assume TENNESSEE wins that game (SU) and gets the first round bye, plus a playoff game at home in the first round (TENN is favored by 8 in that game against HOU).
With me so far?
Here's the "can't lose" scenario:
1. BET $1,000 on TENN to win the AFC Conference (not the Super Bowl, but the conference only). Do it RIGHT NOW. They are currently listed at 4 to 1 everywhere I have looked. SIDE NOTE: I like this bet anyway as a futures play. But we are interested in a hedge, can't lose bet here.
2. TENN gets a first-round bye, and then they will likley play PITTSBURGH, INDIANAPOLIS, or CLEVELAND. TENN will play the winner of the first round playoff game and WILL BE FAVORED AT HOME. That's a given. Worst-case scenario is TENN plays PITT in which case the TITANS are at worst -3 to -3.5 point favorites. That means the moneyline price on the STEELERS to win that game is about +140. I'm guessing here. Correct me if anyone thinks my numbers are off.
3. We lay whatever dollar amount we need to ensure we cover the $1,000 investment on TENN. So, that means we lay $700 (estimate) on PITTSBURGH on the moneyline at +140. I could give an exact figure, but I'm not going to frag out a calculator. WORST CASE SCENARIO is PITTSBURGH pulls the upset in whcih case we get the PUSH. We win our bet on PITT moneyline, but lose the $1000 investment on the Titans. NO LOSS/NO PROFIT.
4. In the event we get a piss-poor team that sneaks in, we actually have to invest less money on the monelyline ticket. So, the PITTSBURGH moneyline is a worst case-scenario.
5. Let's say TENN wins that first playoff game. Striaght up win is all we need in the game. Home teams with a first round bye usually win versus teams that did not have the week off, so this is clearly a strong bet. So far, we have $1,000 riding on TENN. But, we have lost (at most) $700 on PITTSBURGH.
6. In the AFC Championship game, we bet the moneyline of TENNESSEE's opponent. Here's where the guesswork comes in. So, I need some help. We bet the OPPONENT on the moneyline -- which in the worst-case scenario would be OAKLAND (top seed in AFC). I put the line on that game at OAK -6, which means RAIDERS are probably close to a -$200 moneyline favorite. Is that estimate close? Anyone? So, we invest $2,000 on the Raiders moneyline.
7. So far, we have invested (at most):
$700 on PITT
$2000 on OAK
If BOTH of these teams lose and TITANS win the AFC, we win $4,000. That's a $1300 profit. No risk.
8. These are "worst-case" scenarios. In the vent that OAKLAND gets upset in the first round, TENN would become the host of the AFC Championship game, would be favored, and we would only have to lay $1000 on the moneyline. So, that scenario potentially gives us a payoff of $2,300.
9. Another very unlikely, but scary scenario would be to have TENN win the first game, then have much of the team go down with injuries in that same game. That could mean (in a bizarre situation) a moneyline price of -$300 on the RAIDERS in which case we would have to play it just to get our money back.
Other than HOUSTON upsetting TENNESSEE next week, what am I missing that could conceivably disrupt this FREE-ROLL situation?
Finally, I am not suggesting these exact dollar amount be placed on the teams. We could bet them in a manner where we ensure a profit no matter what happens. That would require a mix up of moeny on the ML and PS, but would be to complicated to speculate on at this time.
I'd lke to hear some thoughts on this, particularly fomr those who have more experience with moneyline wagers.
Thanks,
Nolan Dalla
ADDED NOTE: I see that my OAK -6 vs. TENN at -$200 estimate was a bit off. Assuming you agree with these numbers, that requires me to lay -$250. At -5, that's usually about -$210. At -7, that's usually about -$280. So, assuming that -7 would be the top side of an OAK spread over TENN, we would only earn about $500 in profit. I can't see OAK being favored by any more than -7. Again, the upside of this is if OAK loses in the first round, then we cahs big no matter what happens.
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